Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$349,700 :: 3828 E GIDEON Way, Gilbert AZ, 85296

Property Photo

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4 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 2,889 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,791 sq ft
Added: 11/16/18, Last Updated: 12/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5848210
Community: COOLEY STATION NORTH PARCEL 1 VARIOUS LOTS REPLAT
Tract: COOLEY STATION NORTH PARCEL 1 VARIOUS LOTS REPLAT
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/14/2018 by 0%
Status: Active


Hurry to see this amazing Fulton home! Featuring gorgeous living room, tons of natural light, neutral paint, huge loft, beautiful den/office room, 4 bed, 4 bath, and lovely front deck with fantastic views. This is it!! Incredible kitchen outfitted with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, walk-in pantry center island with breakfast bar, mosaic backsplash, and crown molding in the cherry cabinets. There are two marvelous master suites (one downstairs & one upstairs) with walk-in closet, full bath, double sinks, separate tub, and step-in shower. Backyard is perfect for gatherings with its paved patio and synthetic grass. Community offers pools, BBQ areas, green belts, and playgrounds! If you want a great neighborhood and incredible home, this is it!

Listed with Revelation Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$378,000 :: 2131 W SHANNON Street, Chandler AZ, 85224

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,296 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 12/14/18, Last Updated: 12/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5857804
Community: CAPRIANA
Tract: CAPRIANA
Status: Active


Don't miss out on this beautiful, single level home in a desirable Chandler neighborhood. This home has been meticulously maintained by it's original owner!! Pride of ownership shows throughout. Every square inch of this home is EXTREMELY clean!! The home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a large office/game/guest room. This Fulton model has a formal dining, living and large kitchen that is open to the family room and perfect for entertaining. Master bedroom is fitted with a beautiful tiled shower and serperate tub. Walk outside onto the covered patio to see a blue oasis perfect for Arizona weather. Landscape doesn't have a rock out of place or a weed in sight. Location is amazing right next to Whole Foods,Sprouts,Chandler Fashion Square,Freeway access,and top rated schools.

Listed with Perkinson Properties LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$799,999 :: 2553 W EL ALBA Way, Chandler AZ, 85224

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 3,036 sq ft
Lot Size: 71,874 sq ft
Added: 12/14/18, Last Updated: 12/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5857803
Community: CABALLOS RANCHITOS
Tract: CABALLOS RANCHITOS
Status: Active


Horse Lovers Dream Equestrian Estate set on 1.65 acres custom home, no HOA. Newly total remodel Travertine Floors, Gourmet kitchen Cherry Cabinets, Granite Countertops and Stainless Appliances. Entertainers Delight home over 3000sq ft 4 Bedrooms. Executive Master Suite over sized with luxury Jacuzzi Tub, Shower/Dressing Area and private entry to back patio or can be lock off suite AIR BNB split side of home. Formal Dining Room and Living Room all Travertine Floors. Training Facility with 24 stalls, custom built, auto-waters, arena, lounging pen, galvanized rail fences, 4 turn out/green pasture and flood irrigation. New Tile roof. Sparkling Diving pool to enjoy az and party entertaining area. Luxury neighborhood surrounded by some Million$Homes.Close to #101 and Shopping.Make Offer!

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$499,300 :: 1424 W BRUCE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,065 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,662 sq ft
Added: 09/28/18, Last Updated: 12/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5826128
Community: ENCLAVE AT NORTH SHORE
Tract: ENCLAVE AT NORTH SHORE
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/14/2018 by 0%
Status: Active


LOCATION! DON'T MISS OUT! Owner wants it sold.. Your chance to enjoy this RARE NEW home before 2019 that is move-in ready w/pool, $10K in shutters, garage storage, and MANY other new build & after market upgrades. Features incl; 4 Bedrm. 3.5 Baths, +Bonus Rm/Loft, +DEN and Guest Suite, Additional Upgrades incl; Iron Staircase, Wood Plank Tile, Upgraded Berber Carpet & Pad, Dark Rich Cabinetry, Shutters, Pavered Driveway and so much more! You'll LOVE this Open Great Rm. Floor-plan and the STUNNING GOURMET KITCHEN. Features incl; Granite Counters, Gas Cooktop, 42'' Staggered Espresso Cabinets, Lrg. Cntr. Island, HUGE walk-in pantry & separate Dining Rm.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$569,000 :: 4341 E Carriage Way, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,275 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,454 sq ft
Added: 12/14/18, Last Updated: 12/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5857730
Community: Power Ranch Neighborhood 1
Tract: Power Ranch Neighborhood 1
Status: Active


Partially remodeled 5 bedroom + Den, with 3 baths AND POOL, located in Gilbert's Power Ranch community. Want a bedroom on the first floor? Check!! Want the open floorplan look, large enough to host the extended family? Check!! How about a classy Den with Barn Doors? Check!! And of course a Kitchen to write home about, with White Cabinetry, Decorator Backsplash, lots of Granite, and like-new Appliances? Check!!. Then there is the huge backyard, with extra-long Covered Patio, with BBQ grill. Take a dip in the POOL and relax in your heated SPA. What more could you ask for? Try seeing yourself chillin outside the upstairs Master Bedroom on your private Patio, taking in the views! The elegant Master Bath area is stunningly beautiful. A must to see!!

Listed with JK Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$295,000 :: 1107 E HARBOR VIEW Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,521 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 12/14/18, Last Updated: 12/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5857727
Community: HARBOR VIEW AT WIND DRIFT
Tract: HARBOR VIEW AT WIND DRIFT
Status: Active


Check out the Virtual 3D tour in the Photos section!! This home is located in the popular Wind Drift Lake Subdivision This single level 1,521 square foot home boasts three bedrooms and two full bathrooms all located on an ideal large lot. This is a turn key home that incorporates numerous enhancements such as; new tile flooring with tile baseboards, newer carpet a custom front door, energy efficient dual pane windows, beautiful interior paint, and two fully remodeled bathrooms. The convenient breakfast bar is ideal for entertaining family and friends. The over sized backyard has a huge side yard with an RV gate! There is also a transferable home warranty!

Listed with Delex Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$350,000 :: 1265 W LAREDO Street, Chandler AZ, 85224

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,714 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 12/14/18, Last Updated: 12/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5857723
Community: VILLA HACIENDA
Tract: VILLA HACIENDA
Status: Active


Completely remodeled GORGEOUS home in Prime Chandler Location! This Like New Home has the perfect Open Concept Living featuring a Brand New White kitchen, Quartz Counter tops, Cozy Brick Fireplace, Separated Dining & Living Area, Huge Laundry Room PLUS Extra Storage room, New Tile Flooring throughout with high quality carpeting in bedrooms, Beautifully Tiled Showers accompanied with New Vanities also equipped with Quartz Counters, Two Master Closets & Private Sliding doors to backyard, High Quality Upgraded Fixtures throughout, brand new water heater & the list goes on. The easy maintenance back yard comes with a storage shed for all your tools. And one of the few homes that has a Two Car Garage! Don't miss your opportunity to own one of the only Remodeled Homes on the market in this area!

Listed with North & Co


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$449,900 :: 1222 E SARAGOSA Street, Chandler AZ, 85225

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,944 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,583 sq ft
Added: 12/14/18, Last Updated: 12/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5857712
Community: WILLIS RANCH
Tract: WILLIS RANCH
Status: Active


Must see this incredible Chandler home that has it all! 4 bdrm, 2.5 bath Pool/Spa, fireplace, single level, split plan, 3 car garage w/ gladiator garage racks! One of the most favored Jackson floor plans. The minute you open the door, feel the open spacious living room & dining looking out onto the pool/spa, fire pit, built island grill, adobe fireplace w/ seating bench & professional landscape. Super floor plan with light n bright kitchen, kitchen island, gas cook top & pantry. Updated wood floors throughout in 2012, partial flat roof 2012, water heater and pool heater all updated in 2018. NEST thermostat system, Surround Sound, R/O system. Willis Ranch is a desirable family-friendly community & just minutes to 202 frwy, walking distance to top rated CUSD elemen and Jr High. MUST SEE

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$529,900 :: 4286 S STAR CANYON Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,948 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,632 sq ft
Added: 10/26/18, Last Updated: 12/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5839131
Community: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 5
Tract: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 5
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/14/2018 by 0%
Status: Active


This stunning 3 bed, 3 and a half bath home is located in Power Ranch. Private walkway paved in stone leading up to the front door. The spacious floor plan opens into the living area making it perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is a chefs dream, beautiful wood wrap these cabinets with a high top breakfast bar. Meet at the center island to create your culinary delight. Large windows lining the walls filling the room with Arizona sunshine. Light a spark to your evening by the fireplace! Relax in your master bed and bath where you have a romantic soaking tub with tile surrounding it, dual sinks, walk-in shower, private toilet room, and a walk-in closet. The views in your backyard will take your breath away, large space to entertain with friends or relax on your patio.

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$408,900 :: 5369 S SCOTT Place, Chandler AZ, 85249

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,015 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,969 sq ft
Added: 11/01/18, Last Updated: 12/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5841372
Community: RIGGS RANCH MEADOWS
Tract: RIGGS RANCH MEADOWS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/14/2018 by 0%
Status: Active


This gorgeous 5 bed, 3 and a half bath is located in highly sought after Chandler. The open floor plan is ideal for entertaining. Light a spark to your evening by the fireplace or cozy up and read a book. The kitchen has a large center island where you can create a culinary delight. Relax in your spa-inspired master where you can enjoy a soaking tub, large shower, walk-in shower, dual sinks, and much more. Large loft upstairs that can be used for another living space. Step out back where you can enjoy Arizona nights under the covered patio or play a game of football in the lawn. Schedule your showing today.

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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