Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$469,900 :: 4630 W Mercury Way, Chandler AZ, 85226

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,004 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,277 sq ft
Added: 04/16/21, Last Updated: 04/18/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6222472
Community: GLENVIEW ESTATES AMD
Tract: GLENVIEW ESTATES AMD
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/18/2021 by 1%
Status: Active


NO HOA! Huge CORNER LOT in the highly desirable neighborhood of Glenview Estates in Chandler! This tri-level, 4 bedroom/2.5 bathroom home has everything you need! Kitchen has been fully updated with gorgeous cabinetry, stainless steel appliances & granite countertops. Tile in all the right places! Buyer will receive a $5,000 flooring credit at closing! New exterior paint (March 2021), partial interior paint & updated bathrooms. Step outside to your huge new backyard with a sparkling pool that has just been serviced, freshly refilled & chemical balanced after it was acid washed (Apr 2021). Just minutes to the Chandler Mall, tons of shopping, restaurants & entertainment. Very easy access to both 101 and 202 freeways. Come see your new home!

Listed with International Real Estate Professionals, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,694,500 :: 2744 E PORTOLA VALLEY Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 3,840 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,504 sq ft
Added: 03/29/21, Last Updated: 04/18/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6213728
Community: Belmont At Somerset
Tract: Belmont At Somerset
Status: Active


Model Home loaded up with top notch finishes and designer upgrades. This 5 bedroom/ 4.5 bathroom all single level home is incredible. A huge great room open concept plus outdoor kitchen and entertainment space. Chef's kitchen with quartz, 48'' Subzero refrigerator and a huge pantry! Gilbert is known for its top notch A+ schools, incredible shopping, vivacious restaurants right in the middle of the beauty and charm that Gilbert has to offer. Residence 17 Urban Farmhouse Model Home for Sale with a 4 month lease back with 30 day options. No Furniture or decoration items convey and will be removed prior to occupancy. Call for lease back details.

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$819,999 :: 2776 E MAJESTIC EAGLE --, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,336 sq ft
Lot Size: 35,720 sq ft
Added: 04/18/21, Last Updated: 04/18/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6223555
Community: BROADLAND RANCHES GREENFIELD AMENDED
Tract: BROADLAND RANCHES GREENFIELD AMENDED
Status: Active


Beautiful custom home @ the end of a quiet cul-de-sac on huge lot with lots of space to grow and play! This greatroom floorplan includes 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, upgraded eat-in kitchen (corian counters, stainless steel appliances, convection ovens, pantry), formal dining room, den, office, laundry room & central vac. Back yard includes large covered patio with fans, and plenty of room for family & friends, play pool, built-in BBQ, fire pit. Just under an acre with irrigated back, pasture & horse stall. Easy access off the 202 and close to San Tan Mall.

Listed with S.J. Fowler Real Estate, Inc.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$775,000 :: 3724 E LAFAYETTE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,830 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,890 sq ft
Added: 04/15/21, Last Updated: 04/18/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6208905
Community: SEVILLE
Tract: SEVILLE
Status: Active


This truly amazing home will check mark off all your boxes; exceed your expectations, & more!! 5 Large Bedrooms...Check; 3 car garage...Check; 3 1/2 bathrooms...Check; Oversized pool with water feature... Check. Do we have your attention yet? But wait there's more...Large great room, media room, and a large private back yard. The perfect home to host family & friend gatherings and outdoor parties all year long. This very inviting open floor plan is exactly what you have been looking for but not been able to find. Located In the Seville Golf & Country Club Community, the home is just minutes to the club house featuring golf, restaurant, gym, and more. Your search for your ''Amazing Home'' is over. Welcome home!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$395,000 :: 2835 E HARWELL Road, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,353 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 04/18/21, Last Updated: 04/18/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6221788
Community: BASELINE/TONE REPLAT
Tract: BASELINE/TONE REPLAT
Status: Active


Get your offer in now on this beautiful Ryland built, 3 bedroom, 2 bath single level Gilbert home with a private pool on a great corner lot with North / South exposure! Situated on a premium lot in a perfect location near Schools, Freeways, Shopping & Parks! ! This home has an open design with vaulted ceilings, new grey wood laminate flooring, remodeled kitchen with new granite countertops, white cabinets, updated appliances, including microwave, under cabinet lighting & spacious dining area! You will love the backyard with the sparkling pool, covered patio, and dog run all on a quiet lot with easy desert landscaping! The master bed is also vaulted and has a separate tub & shower with a walk in closet. Unrepresented Buyers that work directly with the listing agent will receive 1% toward

Listed with ProSmart Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$499,900 :: 4894 S WADE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,206 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 03/26/21, Last Updated: 04/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6212667
Community: BRIDGES AT GILBERT PHASE 1 PARCEL 3
Tract: BRIDGES AT GILBERT PHASE 1 PARCEL 3
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/17/2021 by 6%
Status: Active


Amazing NEX GEN home in pristine condition located in the highly sought after Bridges in Gilbert. Main house has 2 bedrooms 2 baths w/ split floorplan. Attached casita has 1 bedroom, 1bath, great room, fridge & dishwasher, & separate entrance to outside. Both include granite countertops, SS appliances, wood tile flooring and the guest house includes it's own stackable washer/dryer. Backyard is great for relaxing or it is ready and wired to add a hot tub. The highly desirable community of The Bridges offers culture, connection, and beautiful amenities. Gorgeous waterfall entrances, green spaces, miles of walking trails and paths, play areas, splash pads, and more - all in your own backyard. Easy access to Freeways, close to schools, shopping, restaurants and many more features you will lov

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$620,000 :: 117 E Elgin Street, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,601 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 04/09/21, Last Updated: 04/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6219433
Community: Allen Ranch Parcels 1 2 3 & 4
Tract: Allen Ranch Parcels 1 2 3 & 4
Status: Active


Look no further location location. Single story semi-custom home in the sought after Allen ranch community. This is constructed by VIP Builder as an engineered for Life 4x6 construction home. Featuring custom cabinetry throughout granite countertops in the kitchen stainless appliances updated microwave full size updated refrigerator double oven and disposal. Updated bathrooms two with full baths. Master on site walk-in shower with rain shower head and body Jets. Storage galore in the master bathroom with the double French entry doors. Including master bathroom tiled throughout the house with exception of closets and three bedrooms laminate flooring. Custom security doors front double entry with Oak double entry behind wonderful cool air condition ventilation

Listed with North & Co


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$969,900 :: 3533 E GUADALUPE Road, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,000 sq ft
Lot Size: 71,874 sq ft
Added: 04/09/21, Last Updated: 04/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6209500
Community: RANCHITOS VERDE
Tract: RANCHITOS VERDE
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/17/2021 by 1%
Status: Active


Ropers dream! Four 16x32 fully covered stalls that open to irrigated turnout. Roping arena with catch pen with shade for cattle. 20x30 barn/garage for storage. 40ft conex plus a 20 ft conex. Covered hay storage that is large enough for 4 squeezes of hay. Garage converted to Studio suite (permitted) w/ murphy bed & wardrobe, bathroom & kitchenette. Main home has 4 bd 2ba PLUS office. Master suite w/ walk in closet, dual vanity separate soaker tub & shower. Living room separate from family room w/ wood burning fireplace. In 2012 new: roof, a/c's, flooring, windows, doors, tubs, showers, kitchen & more. Lots of storage inside and out. Incredible treehouse for the kids! Bring your horses, RV, Boat, and all your toys! In town with easy access to the 202, and 60 freeways. OWNER/AGENT

Listed with The Larsen Company Real Estate and Auctions


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$585,000 :: 6965 S OPAL Drive, Chandler AZ, 85249

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,897 sq ft
Lot Size: 14,375 sq ft
Added: 04/17/21, Last Updated: 04/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6223431
Community: SUN GROVES PARCEL 13 THRU 16
Tract: SUN GROVES PARCEL 13 THRU 16
Status: Active


WOW! This GREAT HOUSE has a HUGE BACKYARD with POOL and MOUNTAIN VIEW! 4 bdrm PLUS Loft upstairs and Office/Den downstairs! CHANDLER location that is close to everything! Master Bedroom has double sinks and separate tub/Shower with a BIG MB Closet- look at the photos! 3 car garage! POOL! Spacious kitchen with ample cabinets and counter space, pantry, breakfast bar, and an island. OVERSIZE LOT, approx. 1/3 acre! MOUNTAIN VIEW! PebbleTec Salt Water POOL! Fruit Trees in backyard! New A/C (installed July 2020). Solar panels. This home has it all and is waiting for YOU!

Listed with Mountain Lake Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$947,500 :: 2974 E ATHENA Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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4 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 4,042 sq ft
Lot Size: 15,682 sq ft
Added: 03/12/21, Last Updated: 04/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6206817
Community: STRATLAND SHADOWS
Tract: STRATLAND SHADOWS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/17/2021 by 0%
Status: Active


Fantastic opportunity in highly sought after Stratland Shadows.Open,spacious floorplan with formal living/dining,butler's pantry,eat-in kitchen with an island breakfast bar,stainless appliances,double ovens,gas cook top,built in microwave,walk-in pantry,soft close cabinetry and granite counters.Teen/family room adjacent to 3 bedrooms each with an ensuite bath and walk-in closet.Split owner's suite with soaking tub and massive shower,walk-in closet.Separate office.Plantation shutters,custom tile and stone work, commercial grade porcelain tile,LED fixtures throughout.NEST thermostats.Oversize lot,heated play pool and gazebo,lush landscaping,mountain views from courtyard and from back patio.Custom metal entry gate. Epoxy garage floors. Upgrades everywhere! Must see to appreciate

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

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    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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