Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$520,000 :: 231 N KENNETH Place, Chandler AZ, 85226

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,688 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,228 sq ft
Added: 07/15/21, Last Updated: 08/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6264124
Community: WILD TREE
Tract: WILD TREE
Status: Active


With 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths PLUS a den on the first floor, this home has room for everyone! New carpet and freshly painted interior make this home move-in ready! New insulated wifi garage door and a ring doorbell and garage camera. With an easy maintenance back yard, walking distance from Desert Breeze Park, close to the Chandler Mall, and in the heart of the Kyrene School District! All new high efficiency windows on the west side of house to keep you cool, and lower your electric bills! With a 16 SEER high efficiency AC replaced in 2012.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,255,000 :: 1948 E BELLFLOWER Court, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,011 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,633 sq ft
Added: 07/27/21, Last Updated: 08/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6265197
Community: MARATHON RANCH
Tract: MARATHON RANCH
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/4/2021 by 3%
Status: Active


What makes this home truly so special is the recently upgraded bedroom/bath w/large walk-in closet, that has a separate living quarters to include a en-suite kitchen with a 2nd washer/dryer hookup. A perfect ''private'' stay for guests or private living arrangements for extended family members! ''This is a gorgeous, meticulously maintained home with a split floor-plan 4 bedroom and 3.5 baths'' with 10/12 foot ceilings. It has an enormous primary bedroom with a spacious bath/shower and walk-in closet. The back yard welcomes you with a smart phone heated pool, beautiful spa and pergola with an very large area for games and fun! Perfect for entertaining with an open concept custom chefs kitchen, a magnificent island, large gas stove, double ovens, double

Listed with Hague Partners


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$390,000 :: 2847 E CATHY Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85296

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,340 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 08/04/21, Last Updated: 08/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6274037
Community: RANCHO CORONA
Tract: RANCHO CORONA
Status: Active


Adorable, well-maintained 3BR/2BA home conveniently located in the desirable quite and peaceful Rancho Corona community. Inviting floor plan, bright eat in kitchen area, covered patio and neutral warm colors painted throughout, owned water softer, brand new water heater and RV gate make this house a must. Beautiful, low maintenance backyard can accommodate any of your exterior design ideas to create memories. The community offers a tennis court, walking paths, bike trails, playground & parks. Look no further, all you ever wanted is so close: minutes away from the 202 Freeway, San Tan Mall, Top Golf, shopping, dog park, amazing schools and restaurants.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$435,000 :: 5790 W KESLER Street, Chandler AZ, 85226

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,917 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 07/23/21, Last Updated: 08/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6269132
Community: CARRINGTON PLACE
Tract: CARRINGTON PLACE
Status: Active


Come make this property your home or your investment! Absolute perfect location close to everything. Vaulted ceilings and open floor-plan with 20'' tile through out. Ceiling fans in every room. Carpet in all bedrooms. Kitchen is ready to cook with Granite Counter-tops, Stainless Steel Appliances, large sink & lots of cabinets. Master has tile shower, garden tub, and a real walk-in closet. NO popcorn ceilings! Extra large covered patio makes enjoying the private backyard a shady breeze. All single story home community with tennis court, volley ball and children's play area. Current tenant in place through 12/31/2021. Welcome home!

Listed with 4:10 Real Estate, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$899,900 :: 1266 E IBIS Court, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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6 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 4,778 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,762 sq ft
Added: 07/12/21, Last Updated: 08/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6262324
Community: ESTATES AT THE SPECTRUM
Tract: ESTATES AT THE SPECTRUM
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/4/2021 by 3%
Status: Active


Light & Bright 6 bedrooms, 4.5 bathroom home with 4 car garage on a cul-de-sac lot. PRIME location off of the SanTan 202. Spacious master bedroom has 2 walk-in closets, separate shower & tub, dual vanities and access to backyard. En suite 2nd guest bedroom downstairs. Open kitchen features granite counters, 5 burner gas stove, double ovens, coffee bar & walk-in pantry. Italian ceramic tiles with entry medallion. Fireplace and built in entertainment center in family room. Sparkling pool with removable mesh fence by Baby Guard. Level 2 Electric Vehicle charging stations in both garages. 4 additional bedrooms, 2 baths upstairs with game room and massive loft that overlook park across the street.

Listed with Delex Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$799,000 :: 180 N PECAN Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,456 sq ft
Lot Size: 21,780 sq ft
Added: 07/18/21, Last Updated: 08/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6265675
Community: GROVES OF GILBERT
Tract: GROVES OF GILBERT
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/4/2021 by 6%
Status: Active


Welcome to the newest listing in the highly sought after Groves of Gilbert subdivision. This single level home is situated on large 1/2 acre cul de sac lot and is just minutes from the thriving Downtown Gilbert district . This beautiful custom home features: 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, large kitchen that opens to the great room, huge backyard with a private pool and mature landscaping/trees. Groves of Gilbert is located close to freeways, schools, shopping and restaurants. The Groves of Gilbert subdivision is in the heart of Gilbert!Thank you for Showing.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$730,000 :: 4374 E MESQUITE Street, Gilbert AZ, 85296

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,305 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 08/04/21, Last Updated: 08/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6267833
Community: ELLIOT GROVES AT MORRISON RANCH PHASE 2
Tract: ELLIOT GROVES AT MORRISON RANCH PHASE 2
Status: Active


Welcome to iconic Morrison Ranch known for it's tree lined streets and historic Gilbert silos. With A+ schools, abundant green belts, lakes and parks you will feel right at home. This is your incredible opportunity to own this 3300+ sqft Gilbert home. Through the front door you'll be greeted with a light and airy feel, neutral gray paint, tile flooring and and lots of windows. Versatile flex space makes way for a work/study, workout or even playroom area with this floor plan. Enjoy large gatherings with plenty of space for everyone around the large kitchen island, breakfast nook and over-sized family room. There is plenty of room for cooking and entertaining in this beautiful kitchen too! The custom backsplash make the granite and dark cabinets pop! Upstairs the four generously

Listed with Corcoran Platinum Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$485,000 :: 134 S ELM Street, Chandler AZ, 85226

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 1,410 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,890 sq ft
Added: 07/07/21, Last Updated: 08/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6259474
Community: CRESTVIEW UNIT 4
Tract: CRESTVIEW UNIT 4
Status: Active


Great home in an amazing location. Family neighborhood that is in-between 4 freeways. 3 bedrooms with attached baths. Large great room with vaulted ceiling. Large yard with beautiful pool. Huge lot with RV gate, there are no neighbors behind.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$888,000 :: 3713 E BARBARITA Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,925 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,038 sq ft
Added: 08/04/21, Last Updated: 08/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6271808
Community: CIRCLE G AT THE HIGHLANDS
Tract: CIRCLE G AT THE HIGHLANDS
Status: Active


Circle G Highlands .459 acres, Single level w stone vaneer accents - curb appeal! Bright & open updated 4 bed, 3 bath, split plan. Den, family room, living room, 16' ceilings, plank tile flooring throughout. Large covered patio, pool - spa & built-in grill. 3 car garage, built-in cabinets, secret room, RV gate and a basketball court on an oversized driveway! Perfect huge backyard for relaxing or entertaining with a large grassy area and citrus trees! Gourmet kitchen has a gas cook-top w 5 burners, double wall ovens, stainless steel barn sink, huge walk-in pantry, new granite countertops w backsplash and eat-in kitchen area! Master suite offers his & hers walk-in closets, new tiled walk-in shower w a stand alone relaxing oversized bath tub! New Window World windows. Highland School district

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$725,000 :: 3857 E LOMA VISTA Street, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,518 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,228 sq ft
Added: 08/04/21, Last Updated: 08/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6271623
Community: RAY & RECKER PHASE 1
Tract: RAY & RECKER PHASE 1
Status: Active


Pride in ownership shows in this home, from the custom garage door, upgraded fixtures, to the spectacular pool and landscaped back yard! Do not miss your opportunity to be in this neighborhood. Homes do not come available very often! Right when you walk in the door you get a great look through the home to the beautiful kitchen with an extra large island. Friends and family will have plenty of space during the holidays. Along with the huge living room you have one bedroom with attached bathroom downstairs. As you head up the stairs you are greeted by another living space plus 2 large bedrooms and a bathroom with double vanities. Lastly, the spacious primary bedroom is so inviting! The primary bath features a rainfall showerhead from the ceiling and massive walk in closet.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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