Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$350,000 :: 2922 E MORGAN Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85295

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,647 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 09/23/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6136395
Community: CROSSROADS
Tract: CROSSROADS
Status: Conditional


Look no further if you want to live in a desirable Gilbert community right beside a greenbelt!! This beautiful home has a good-sized, fenced backyard with covered patio, vaulted ceilings and an open concept living space perfect for entertaining. Located in the Crossroads, this lovely neighborhood in close to shopping, restaurants and parks.

Listed with Delex Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$479,000 :: 2714 E MEWS Road, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,658 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 09/30/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6139569
Community: ADORA TRAILS PARCEL 11B
Tract: ADORA TRAILS PARCEL 11B
Status: Active


Gorgeous Gilbert home with great curb appeal available in highly sought after Adora Trails. Room to spread out with over 2650 sq ft of living space, 3 large bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a den AND a loft!, Formal dining area has walk-through to beautiful kitchen with huge island and a spacious open concept family room perfect for entertaining. Beautiful staggered tile flooring in all common areas with neutral paint. Upstairs master retreat includes a huge walk-in closet and a gorgeous ensuite with dual sinks and an oversize shower. Master closet has convenient access to the laundry room! Large low maintenance backyard is a clean slate for your own pool or landscaping ideas!! ONLY single level homes surrounding the property for optimum privacy. This shows like a brand new home

Listed with Delex Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$724,900 :: 2731 S HONEYSUCKLE Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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6 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 4,011 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 09/14/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6119398
Community: JAKES RANCH
Tract: JAKES RANCH
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/30/2020 by 3%
Status: Active


Stop your search! This lovely basement home w/ split floor plan in the desirable Jake's Ranch gated community is ready for its next owner. Inside, tall ceilings & picture windows make for a light, bright, & open feel, and tile flooring & carpet are in all the right places. Recent updates include granite counter tops & backsplash in kitchen, appliances (double oven, microwave, dishwasher, & cooktop), & all four bathrooms have been remodeled. Kitchen also features giant wet island w/ breakfast bar & recessed lighting. Finished basement has two bedrooms & bathroom with walk-in shower, & spacious 2nd living area, perfect for entertaining. Master bath features dual sink granite counter top vanity, separate walk-in shower & tub with tile inlay, & Master bedroom has separate exit to backyard.

Listed with Weichert, Realtors - Courtney Valleywide


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$370,000 :: 6072 S BEDFORD Place, Chandler AZ, 85249

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,082 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,890 sq ft
Added: 09/30/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6132402
Community: SPRINGFIELD BLOCK THREE
Tract: SPRINGFIELD BLOCK THREE
Status: Active


72 HOUR HOME SALE. INQUIRE NOW! Welcome to the beautiful guard-gated Springfield active adult golf community! This gorgeous 2bd/2ba single-level home is updated, turnkey, on a corner lot, and is move-in ready. Enter through the beautiful cast-iron door to be greeted by beautiful wood flooring and a formal seating area. The eat-in kitchen features gorgeous granite countertops, tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and tons of counter space. Sellers added on 500sqft to expand the great room, new paint, wood shutters, crown molding, two closets, and a courtyard. The backyard is HUGE and is ready for the new owners finishing touches with plenty of room for a pool, bbq area, etc. Motivated sellers offering a turnkey home that will NOT last long. Contact CLA for showing info.

Listed with Hague Partners


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$320,000 :: 892 E WATERVIEW Place, Chandler AZ, 85249

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,379 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 09/30/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6139482
Community: LAGOS VISTOSO
Tract: LAGOS VISTOSO
Status: Active


Welcome home to this beautifully appointed single level home in Chandler. This North/South facing corner lot is located across the street from the common area, walking paths, tot lot and just around the corner from the lakes. The open floorplan maximizes the space of the interior and the split floorplan allows for the privacy you deserve. Peer out the window into the backyard while doing dishes and making dinner, accompanied by your onlookers that can watch from the breakfast bar in the kitchen. The tile flooring will permit your pets and others the visit without the concern of the traffic. Enjoy your privacy with the corner lot and store your toys in the backyard accessed by the RV gate. Hurry in to see this one today!

Listed with Showtime Realty Professionals, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$649,900 :: 2453 W ENFIELD Way, Chandler AZ, 85286

Property Photo

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6 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 4,004 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,455 sq ft
Added: 08/18/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6119378
Community: PECOS RANCH ESTATES
Tract: PECOS RANCH ESTATES
Status: Active


Location! Location! Location!Huge 6 bdm/4.5 bath home in very desirable neighborhood of Pecos Ranch Estates. Conveniently located near Price Road Corridor with easy access to freeways and close proximity to Chandler Fashion Center. Upstairs living space features a large master suite, an en-suite, and three additional bedrooms. A newly remodeled guest suite is featured downstairs, along with formal living and dining rooms, a large great room, allowing plenty of space for everyone. Additional features include separate wet bar & laundry room, beautiful gas fire place in family room, upgraded granite countertops, plantation shutters, New carpet, wood and marble flooring throughout. The backyard features an RV gate, mature trees and a huge patio for entertainment. Come see for yourself!!

Listed with DPR Realty LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,425,000 :: 1281 E KINGBIRD Place, Chandler AZ, 85286

Property Photo

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4 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 5,250 sq ft
Lot Size: 22,216 sq ft
Added: 09/30/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6139454
Community: AVALON AT CHANDLER AIRPARK
Tract: AVALON AT CHANDLER AIRPARK
Status: Active


New CHANDLER LUXURY Construction!! This Contemporary Home is for The Ages! Legendary Builder + Legendary CRAFTSMANSHIP! Nestled on 1/2 Acre Lot in The Newest Gated Chandler Luxury Community of Avalon! Amazing 5250 sq.ft. Floorplan Featuring 4 Breathtaking Bedrooms All w/Full Baths & Walk-In Closets. Dramatic Foyer Entries to Oversized Plank Hardwood Floors, Modern Stone Fireplace Floor to Ceiling! Bonus/Gameroom, Dedicated Study w/Coffered Ceilings. Captivating Lighting Package! Phenomenal Kitchen Space! Massive Granite Island, Eat-In Kitchen, Butler Pantry, White Cabinets w/Glass Uppers, 48'' Gas Stove, Side-By-Side Fridge/Freezer. Flowing Covered Patio & Deep Lot Ready For Buyer to Design The Ultimate Backyard! Don't Miss This Amazing Location! Photos Reflect Similar Finishes Expected!

Listed with Infinity & Associates Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$739,000 :: 24706 S 182ND Place, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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3 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 3,459 sq ft
Lot Size: 47,045 sq ft
Added: 02/08/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6034815
Community: CHANDLER MESA RANCHES - NO HOA
Tract: CHANDLER MESA RANCHES - NO HOA
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/30/2020 by 1%
Status: Active


Looking for space? Very Rare opportunity to buy a custom home on 1 acre lot with the option to add the adjacent vacant 1 acre lot for only $279,000.. NO HOA on a County Island. Grand entry opens to breathtaking Rotunda-like Living room with custom marble & travertine in-lays & backlit stained glass niches. Split floor plan w/sensational open kitchen Family room has a cozy fireplace & the spacious Kitchen. features large island, stainless appliances, granite, glide out drawers, upgraded fixtures & W/I pantry! Other rooms include: elegant Formal Dining Rm., Large Bonus/Game Rm., & the 4th Bed Rm. is set up as an awesome Media Rm w/ 6-speaker surround. Luxurious Master Suite features sitting area & lavish bath w/glass block shower, Oversized jetted tub. Walk through video in the photos

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$986,427 :: 2782 E WATERMAN Street, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,803 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,504 sq ft
Added: 07/14/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6102988
Community: Belmont At Somerset
Tract: Belmont At Somerset
The price of this listing was last increased on 9/30/2020 by 2%
Status: Active


Move in within 4 months!! Incredible finishes and upgrades on a Brand New Home. This intimate luxurious home site on 13,362 sq ft lot with a north backyard and a huge great room concept. 4 bedrooms/ 3.5 bathrooms plus a den office and also formal dining room. A community park in a key location! Gilbert is known for its top notch A+ schools, incredible shopping, vivacious restaurants right in the middle of the beauty and charm that Gilbert has to offer. This is a Residence 7 Vintage elevation single level home and price does not include front and backyard landscaping. Photo is rendering. Taxes are Est. Come Check out our brand new homes!

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$348,888 :: 3588 S JOSHUA TREE Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,521 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 09/10/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6130039
Community: SAN TAN RANCH PARCEL 13
Tract: SAN TAN RANCH PARCEL 13
Status: Active


Freshly painted interior. Newly installed Italian Porcelain wood looking tile. Great floor plan, this house is a great bargain and offers a split floor plan with a nice master suite and master bath. Other bedrooms a nice distance with a 2nd bathroom in between them. Huge/Deep backyard with RV Gate. Tenant on lease until 6/30/2021 @ $1595 a month. Do not disturb tenant. Drive by only

Listed with Caballero Property Management, Inc.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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