Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$355,000 :: 1053 N KIRBY Street, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,870 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 07/13/20, Last Updated: 07/13/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6102629
Community: DAVE BROWN 172ND STREET AND GUADALUPE
Tract: DAVE BROWN 172ND STREET AND GUADALUPE
Status: Active


Open floorplan with vaulted ceilings large great room spacious that looks over the backyard. Another added plus is the Kitchen has plenty of counter space and cabinets. Split floorplan with large Master bedroom and master bathroom. In a great location close to freeway access, shopping & restaurants.This home is tenant occupied until March 2021.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$489,000 :: 7527 S ROANOKE Street, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,477 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 06/07/20, Last Updated: 07/13/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6085440
Community: ADORA TRAILS PARCEL 11A
Tract: ADORA TRAILS PARCEL 11A
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/13/2020 by 2%
Status: Active


Motivated Seller Needing To Move Quickly! SINGLE LEVEL HOME w/4 CAR GARAGE ON PREMIUM LOT IN ADORA TRAILS!! Stop By and See This 4 Bedroom Plus Office/Den wi/3 Baths. Open View Fence & Beautiful Mountain Views! Bright & Open Floor Plan to Great Room *Formal Dining* Kitchen with Eat In Dining w/Custom Paint. Upgraded Kitchen w/ Granite Countertops, Under Mount Cabinet Lighting, Walk In Pantry & Large Kitchen Island. Epoxy Floors in Garage, RV Gate. East/West Grass Backyard & Greenbelt Behind Home.Rectangle Pool will Fit in this Backyard. Community Amenities Features A Rated Elementary School, Full Gym w/ Fitness Center, Basketball Courts, Catch & Release Fishing Lake & Heated Pool & Splash Pad. Numerous Walk Ways & Greenbelts! Fun Community Events & Activities Planned Throughout the Year.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$372,000 :: 3724 E Trinity Lane, Chandler AZ, 85286

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,928 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,050 sq ft
Added: 07/06/20, Last Updated: 07/13/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6099573
Community: LAYTON LAKES
Tract: LAYTON LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/13/2020 by 2%
Status: Active


BETTER THAN NEW!!! EASY MAINTENANCE LIVING AT IT'S FINEST!! This home has been Immaculately maintained. GAS range for cooking. GRANITE counter tops & STAINLESS STEELE appliances. UPGRADED FLOORING throughout!! Ethernet ports are built into all rooms for work or entertainment. Luxurious master bath with walk-in shower & closet. Additional two bedrooms are extra large as well! UPSTAIRS Den & laundry room also. Plenty of storage throughout the house. Low maintenance side yard with pavers. Beautiful Layton Lakes community gives you the luxury of low-maintenance GATED living, including access to the HEATED community POOL & spa, splash pad, tennis courts, children's playgrounds and more. Also adjacent to the coveted Haley Elementary school & Meadowbrook Park. DON'T WAIT TO SEE THIS ONE!

Listed with Keller Williams Legacy One


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$315,000 :: 1272 S HERITAGE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85296

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,470 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,228 sq ft
Added: 07/13/20, Last Updated: 07/13/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6102674
Community: LINDSAY RANCH UNIT 1
Tract: LINDSAY RANCH UNIT 1
Status: Active


This Gilbert one-story cul-de-sac home offers a fireplace, an in-ground pool, and a two-car garage. This home is vacant and cleaned regularly.

Listed with Opendoor Brokerage, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$956,995 :: 2762 E LARK Court, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,082 sq ft
Lot Size: 18,731 sq ft
Added: 05/02/20, Last Updated: 07/13/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6073278
Community: WHITEWING AT GERMANN ESTATES
Tract: WHITEWING AT GERMANN ESTATES
The price of this listing was last increased on 7/13/2020 by 1%
Status: Active


Welcome to the Guard Gated Community of Whitewing at Germann Estates.TOLL BROTHERS TO-BE-BUILT Cadiz Modern Ranch elevation home. Expansive 3 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom home with a desirable front courtyard. Large Bonus Room and Basement option (additional 1762 sq ft)

Listed with Toll Brothers Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$325,000 :: 737 N HAZELTON Drive, Chandler AZ, 85226

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,381 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 07/13/20, Last Updated: 07/13/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6102664
Community: COPPERFIELD ESTATES LOT 1-279 TR A-H
Tract: COPPERFIELD ESTATES LOT 1-279 TR A-H
Status: Active


Very attractive and well maintained two bedroom, two bath home with swimming pool and redwood sun deck. Located 3/4 mile North of Chandler Fashion Square Mall, 1/2 mile west of 101 freeway. New paint inside and out, new carpet, new Kool-Deck coating, new garage roof seal and coating, past 30 days.Fireplace, Vaulted Ceilings, Granite kitchen counter-tops, walk-in pantry, Linen closet, Master bedroom walk-in closet. New A/C unit (2016), new Tank-less Water heater ( 2020), New main elec. service panel- all new breakers, (SRP 2017), Low maintenance- Imitation turf grass side yard, Swimming pool resurfaced (2015), Removable Child Pool fence. Perfect home to start your new family.

Listed with Infinity & Associates Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$494,900 :: 4231 E AMBER Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85296

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,087 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 06/05/20, Last Updated: 07/13/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6085117
Community: ELLIOT GROVES AT MORRISON RANCH PHASE 2
Tract: ELLIOT GROVES AT MORRISON RANCH PHASE 2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/6/2020 by 1%
Status: Conditional


This gorgeous four bedroom, two and a half bath home is for sale in Elliot Groves at Morrison Ranch in Gilbert, AZ. Upgrades galore from the moment you enter- formal living and dining rooms, dream kitchen with upgraded appliances and quartz counters and open concept family room.Upstairs, you'll find a loft, the master suite, three guest rooms and a full guest bath. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs too!Three car tandem garage and large backyard with extended paver seating area, custom planter boxes and tons of grass!Morrison Ranch is a master planned community located near Recker & Elliot Roads in Gilbert. Your new home is located just a few homes from one of the largest parks in Elliot Groves with play area, amphitheater, Ramada and basketball courts!

Listed with RE/MAX Alliance Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$484,900 :: 5982 W GAIL Drive, Chandler AZ, 85226

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5 beds, 2.75 baths
Home size: 2,922 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 06/22/20, Last Updated: 07/13/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6093741
Community: WARNER RANCH PHASE 3 LOT 1-265 TR A-G
Tract: WARNER RANCH PHASE 3 LOT 1-265 TR A-G
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/13/2020 by 2%
Status: Active


This 5 bedroom, charming Chandler home is perfectly located in Warner Ranch. The formal living/dining area & grand staircase welcome you inside. The eat-in kitchen opens the the spacious family room & features rich cabinetry, double ovens, a pantry & has a great view of the pool in the back! There is a full bathroom & bedroom downstairs w/a MASSIVE bonus room, perfect for teens, guests or an office. Upstairs, the master suite is complete w/a garden soaking tub, new shower tile surround & glass, his/hers sinks, walk-in closet & huge balcony overlooking the pool. The backyard is everything you've been waiting for, w/covered patio, built in BBQ, sparkling POOL & gazebo covered SPA (which works and conveys), a seating area w/gas fire features and MORE! Schedule a private showing today!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Phoenix


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$600,000 :: 16838 S HIGLEY Road, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,806 sq ft
Lot Size: 60,984 sq ft
Added: 07/01/20, Last Updated: 07/13/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6097330
Community: Metes and Bounds
Tract: Metes and Bounds
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/13/2020 by 4%
Status: Active


Looking for No HOA and a County Island in Gilbert? Good luck! You and everyone else. Today is your lucky day, this charming horse property is located in the perfect location in Gilbert. The calls have already started to pour in. Don't wait, it will be too late. Location, location, location. Your new property has just under an acre and a half of land and a charming rambling ranch. Your home is tucked back off the road and has pasture and 20+ year old shade trees to keep your home shaded. If privacy is important you will love how this home has no neighbors behind and is located on a small side road off of Higley. Don't worry, it isn't right on the busy street. Enjoy additional privacy in your back yard and take a dip to escape the Arizona summer with the block enclosed diving pool.

Listed with Life Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$589,000 :: 4165 E CYNTHIA Street, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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6 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 2,945 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 07/01/20, Last Updated: 07/13/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6097495
Community: COOLEY STATION PARCELS 10 AND 17 PHASE 2
Tract: COOLEY STATION PARCELS 10 AND 17 PHASE 2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/13/2020 by 2%
Status: Active


AMAZING OPPORTUNITY to buy a newer Fulton home in Cooley Station completely done! 6 bedrooms/4 full baths w/ Gourmet Kitchen huge family island with 2'' Quartz counters. 8' doors throughout, Home lives like a one story w/4 bedrooms 3 baths downstairs & 2 rooms & one double sink bath up. Upgrades through out home w/wood tile floors, large sliding patio doors to patio, tile master shower, 72' free standing tub in master. Floating cabinets in all the bathrooms. Ethernet outlets in all rms, wifi thermostat & garage door opener, Surround sound in family room, security pre wire, Extended tile on patio. Travertine, turf outside patio w/fountain & putting green. dog run. Extended 4 car garage w/epoxy flooring.

Listed with Real Estate Brokers Intl


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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