Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$625,000 :: 15508 E VIA DEL PALO --, Gilbert AZ, 85298

Property Photo

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5 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,893 sq ft
Lot Size: 53,578 sq ft
Added: 01/04/19, Last Updated: 02/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5862981
Community: BROOKS FARMS ESTATES
Tract: BROOKS FARMS ESTATES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 2/5/2019 by 2%
Status: Conditional


STUNNING farmhouse in the city now offered for sale. Unlike anything you've seen in Gilbert- in a tucked away community you never knew was here. Attention to detail in all things- from the large dormers & welcoming bright red door, to the elegant doorway and window casings with plantation shutters-- this place truly feels like ''home''.The kitchen has all the upgrades you've been looking for- stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and warm cabinetry. The interior has been freshly painted and new carpeting installed. There's a split floorplan with large master bedroom and ample secondary bedrooms for all your guests. The loft above the garage is perfect for a workout room, office, or play area. No expense was spared for the animals in your life- 4 covered, 12x12 stalls wit

Listed with Realty Executives East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$305,000 :: 4346 E TOLEDO Street, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,926 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,049 sq ft
Added: 01/14/19, Last Updated: 02/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5867621
Community: FINCHER FIELDS AT COOLEY STATION AMD
Tract: FINCHER FIELDS AT COOLEY STATION AMD
The price of this listing was last reduced on 2/15/2019 by 3%
Status: Active


Reduced to Sell - This lovely 2 story home is just 1-1/2 years old & still looks like Brand new! Sellers transferred out of the country & sad to leave their dream home. 3 Bedrooms + 2.5 baths... Beautiful island kitchen includes granite countertops, upgraded 42'' cabinets, pantry & SS Appliances. Spacious Family room has 15' extended sliding patio doors that open to the covered balcony. Split bedroom floorplan has the Master bedroom upstairs & the Jack & Jill Bedrooms downstairs. You'll love the 2 tone paint, staggered floor tiles & upgraded carpet. HOA maintains front yard landscaping. Backyard has covered patio & ready for your custom design. 2 Car Garage & Soft Water Loop. Refrig, washer & dryer included. NICE!

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$429,900 :: 2662 E PALM BEACH Drive, Chandler AZ, 85249

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,409 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,018 sq ft
Added: 07/29/18, Last Updated: 02/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5799811
Community: SUN RIVER PARCEL B
Tract: SUN RIVER PARCEL B
The price of this listing was last reduced on 2/15/2019 by 1%
Status: Active


Open floorplan for your large family in desirable S. Chandler with N/S exposure. Spacious grass backyard with built-in grill and custom pool with waterfall feature. Downstairs - 1 bedroom, full bath w/open floorplan boasts an oversized family room adjoined by double doors to a media room pre-wired for in home theater or den/office, formal dining/living room, dramatic foyer entrance, elegant 18' tile, large kitchen with double ovens (1 convection), granite countertops, large kitchen island & maple cabinets. Upstairs,- 4 spacious bedrooms. Located in beautiful SUN RIVER - close to schools with a gorgeous park, greenbelts and walking trails. HOME WARRANTY, security system and $3K exterior paint allowance included.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$268,000 :: 1403 W KESLER Lane, Chandler AZ, 85224

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,315 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,662 sq ft
Added: 02/07/19, Last Updated: 02/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5880319
Community: BLAKEMAN RANCH UNIT 1
Tract: BLAKEMAN RANCH UNIT 1
Status: Active


BACK ON THE MARKET!! Lovely 3BD/2BA home in the heart of Chandler! Home boast ALL NEW flooring and fresh new paint throughout. ALL NEW stainless steel kitchen appliances, NEW kitchen counter tops, and NEW stainless double sink and faucet. Large backyard with covered patio, perfect for entertaining and making memories. Home's Exterior paint is only 3 years old. EXCELLENT location! Close to freeways, both the 101 and San Tan 202. Minutes to Chandler Regional hospital as well as Chandler Fashion Square mall with many dining and shopping options available. Home offers a platinum ONE year home warranty! Come see this lovely home for yourself, WELCOME HOME!!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$345,000 :: 842 W HORSESHOE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,104 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 02/15/19, Last Updated: 02/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5884280
Community: DAVE BROWN UNIT 5
Tract: DAVE BROWN UNIT 5
Status: Active


Don't miss this spacious 4 bed, 3 bath tri-level home with vaulted ceilings. The home features an updated kitchen with granite counter tops, white cabinets, pantry, eat-in kitchen nook & stainless steel appliances. The master, 2nd, and 3rd bedrooms are located on the top floor, the second bath has double sinks and an updated tiled shower/bath, the master suite has double doors, his and her sinks, separate shower/tub, new vinyl/laminate flooring, and a walk-in closet. The 4th bedroom is located on the 1st floor along with a full bath perfect for guests. The laundry room has been updated with tile backsplash, cabinets, and a utility sink. The 3 car garage is spacious and has plenty of storage along with cabinets.

Listed with North & Co


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$360,000 :: 1082 S MEADOWS Drive, Chandler AZ, 85286

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,137 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 01/13/19, Last Updated: 02/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5867395
Community: MESSINA
Tract: MESSINA
Status: Active


Beautiful Fulton built family home w/ Formal LR and DR. Huge kitchen island w/ Corian counters, 42-inch maple cabinets, open to large family room with entertainment niches. 2019 new interior paint and 2019 flooring updated in LR and FR. Split floor plan and walk-in closets in all bedrooms. Office could be used as a 4th bedroom. Gorgeous Pebble Tec pool with a large covered patio and even a front porch! Newer AC for low maintenance and low utilities. Corner lot means privacy and quick access to all of the great Chandler schools. 3 car garage and single-story leaves plenty of storage! Easy to show and ready for your visit!

Listed with Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$450,000 :: 1020 W IRIS Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,592 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 02/15/19, Last Updated: 02/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5884267
Community: WINDHAVEN UNIT 3
Tract: WINDHAVEN UNIT 3
Status: Active


WELCOME TO THE ISLANDS IN GILBERT * THIS AMAZING FLOOR PLAN HAS 3 BDRM & 2 BATH PLUS DOUBLE DOOR DEN * SEP LVG & FAM RM * FORMAL DINING * BREAKFAST RM WITH GREAT VIEW OF BKYARD * ISLAND KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTERS * LOTS OF CABINET SPACE * NEW REFRIG STAYS * REAL WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE IN FAM RM * MSTR BDRM WITH EXIT DOOR OUT TO PATIO FROM MASTER BATH * HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET * DOUBLE SINKS & SEP TUB & SHOWER WITH PRIVATE TOILET RM * LAUNDRY RM WITH A WALL OF CABINET STORAGE * WASHER & DRYER STAY * VAULTED CEILINGS * CEILING FANS IN MOST ROOMS * INVITING BKYRD WITH PEBBLE TEC POOL * NICELY LANDSCAPED * GRASS AREA & FRUIT TREE * WALK WAY ALONG SIDE YARD TO FRNT GATE * 3 CAR GARAGE WITH STORAGE & EXIT DOOR TO SIDE YARD * NEWLY PAINTED WALLS & FLOORS IN GARAGE * N/S EXP * LAMINATE FLOORS IN

Listed with Revelation Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$279,900 :: 3841 E SANTA FE Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,102 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,049 sq ft
Added: 02/05/19, Last Updated: 02/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5878330
Community: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 10 PARCEL D AND E
Tract: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 10 PARCEL D AND E
The price of this listing was last reduced on 2/15/2019 by 3%
Status: Active


This may be the home for you! Three bedrooms, 3.5 baths and a HUGE loft. No neighbors to the south gives you more privacy in this low maintenance home. Completely tiled in all the downstairs living spaces. All kitchen appliances included. Upstairs laundry room for your convenience. The Power Ranch community is close to restaurants, shopping, and all Gilbert has to offer. See this property before it's no longer available!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$429,600 :: 1555 E STIRRUP Court, Gilbert AZ, 85296

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,615 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,583 sq ft
Added: 01/11/19, Last Updated: 02/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5866953
Community: SILVERSTONE RANCH
Tract: SILVERSTONE RANCH
The price of this listing was last reduced on 2/15/2019 by 0%
Status: Active


Beautiful home located in Silverstone Ranch, a one-of-a-kind Equestrian Community. Home features spacious formal dining & living areas, tiled gas fireplace, bay windows, neutral flooring & designer paint throughout. Well equipped kitchen, loads of cabinets, counters, breakfast bar, tile backsplash, pantry, matching appliances, built-in ovens & gas cooktop. Elegant master suite w/double door entrance, spacious bath w/his & her sinks, glamour tub, large shower & walk-in closet off mstr bath. Lush professionally landscaped backyard, with oversized covered patio & manicured grassy area, a perfect place to relax or entertain friends. (HOA w/horse privileges, corral, barn, arena, stalls & tack rm). Great properties like this one, never last. No disappointments here, very well maintain

Listed with Revelation Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$425,000 :: 2098 E Brigadier Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,615 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 02/15/19, Last Updated: 02/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5884161
Community: Adora Trails
Tract: Adora Trails
Status: Active


Combine the crisp elegance of a newer home with the remarkable community of Adora Trails and you'll find yourself right at home in this 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath. Gourmet kitchen complete with breakfast bar, upgraded cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, granite counter tops, oversized pantry, and premium lighting. This split floorplan offers a master retreat with warm contemporary engineered wood flooring, oversized closet, & pristine master bath. The sprawling pavered patio invites you to entertain or relax. Adora Trails offers 12 miles of walking trails, basketball courts, soccer and baseball fields, community pool, fishing lake, splash pad, community center, & award-winning schools. Whether you are looking for excitement or relaxation, this where you can be a part of a wonderful community.

Listed with Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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