Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$360,000 :: 434 E STOTTLER Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85296

4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,038 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,969 sq ft
Added: 08/18/18, Last Updated: 08/18/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5806710
Community: NEELY FARMS UNIT 2
Tract: NEELY FARMS UNIT 2
Status: Active


This home is located in a highly desired neighborhood, close to everything. The pride of ownership shows the moment you walk in the door. The home has newer tile in all the right places. The home has been freshly painted on the inside and out. The bright and cheery eat-in kitchen has plenty of cabinet, counter space and a pantry, with brand new granite counter tops and appliances. There is also a formal dining area, separate living and family room. The bedrooms are very spacious with plenty of closet space. The private backyard features a covered patio and lovely flagstone area, a great place to entertain with friends and family.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$950,000 :: 5750 W LINDA Lane, Chandler AZ, 85226

Property Photo

Mls Icon

5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 5,000 sq ft
Lot Size: 17,859 sq ft
Added: 03/16/18, Last Updated: 08/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5737752
Community: WELLINGTON ESTATES
Tract: WELLINGTON ESTATES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/17/2018 by 3%
Status: Active


Luxurious Basement Home with a Full Guest House with Kitchen and Bath, and a Master Suite with Full His and Hers Bathrooms. Features custom wood work throughout, wood ceiling in library, gorgeous fireplace, French doors to patio, beautiful hardwood floors, soaring ceilings, plantation shutters, crown moulding, and ceiling fans. Stunning chefs kitchen features two island, breakfast bar, marble counters, wine cooler, tiled backsplash, and complimentary wood cabinetry with stylish hardware. Perfect Home for entertaining inside and out. Large laundry room with storage cabinets. Fantastic Media Room in finished basement along with exercise room, bedroom, and bathroom. Grand master retreat boasts vaulted ceiling, His and Hers Bath, large walk-in closet, and private en suite. Walkable to Intel

Listed with List 3K, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$925,000 :: 6179 S 172ND Street, Gilbert AZ, 85298

Property Photo

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6 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,230 sq ft
Lot Size: 85,377 sq ft
Added: 08/01/18, Last Updated: 08/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5801006
Community: METES AND BOUNDS
Tract: METES AND BOUNDS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/17/2018 by 3%
Status: Active


Horse Property!! Stop and take time to click the link for the virtual tour and to watch the drone video. This will allow you to appreciate the 2 acres of paradise and all its amenities. Sitting on two lots and being adjacent horse riding trails gives the property lots of ''elbow room''. There is an adjacent flood irrigated 0.85 acre pasture lot to the east, also owned by same owner. Together the two lots make 2 acres. The backyard immediate to the house is surrounded by block fence and view fence, giving privacy to the saltwater pool and grass lawn. Outside this mini-backyard the rest of the property is desert landscape, for low water. There is a 3 stall mare motel on the south end, with an enclosed tack room. A separate storage shed. A concrete horse wash area

Listed with List 3K, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$439,950 :: 1640 E YELLOWSTONE Place, Chandler AZ, 85249

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,803 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,454 sq ft
Added: 08/17/18, Last Updated: 08/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5808633
Community: COOPER CORNERS WEST
Tract: COOPER CORNERS WEST
Status: Active


Beautiful, semi custom Fulton home located in a highly desirable Chandler community. Boasting popular split bedroom floor plan, high ceilings, an office & a large bonus room. The kitchen offers upgraded cabinets, 2 pantries and stainless steel appliances opening to the family room. In addition, there is a separate living and dining area with natural stone flooring looking out to the lush back yard creating the perfect space for entertaining. Sitting on a 1/4 of an acre lot, it offers an expansive back yard with a large pool with water features, mature trees and a small koi pond. Don't miss out on this stunning home!

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$227,000 :: 2317 E FOLLEY Street, Chandler AZ, 85225

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,396 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 08/17/18, Last Updated: 08/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5808621
Community: COLONIA CORONITA
Tract: COLONIA CORONITA
Status: Active


PRICED TO SELL! Renovated comps have sold for more than $250K in this NON-HOA neighborhood! This wide open, single level home is ready for it's new owner. With fresh interior paint in the great room and newer floors throughout this home has a lot of potential!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$324,900 :: 3912 S BRIDAL VAIL Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85297

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,844 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 08/17/18, Last Updated: 08/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5808594
Community: SAN TAN RANCH
Tract: SAN TAN RANCH
Status: Active


This home will hit everything on your checklist! Located in one of the most desirable parts of Gilbert, it has all of the key features that everyone is searching for such as: single story, 3 Bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, with an enclosed den that could easily be used as a 4th bedroom or office if needed! As you enter through the front door you will find upgraded diagonally laid tile, upgraded tall baseboard, and tall vaulted ceilings. This home also features a 3 car garage, RV Gate on the side of the home with tons of room for a small trailer, vehicle, or small boat, private pool, and fully landscaped with grass front and back yards!Home like this do not come on the market very often at this price, so go see it, fall in love, and put in an offer!

Listed with Ashby Realty Group, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$250,000 :: 1373 E CONSTITUTION Drive, Chandler AZ, 85225

Property Photo

Mls Icon

3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,600 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,791 sq ft
Added: 08/17/18, Last Updated: 08/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5808606
Community: FULTON HOMES AT THE PROVINCES
Tract: FULTON HOMES AT THE PROVINCES
Status: Active


Nestled in the Provinces, a beautiful master-planned community of mature trees and greenbelts is a 1600 sf Fulton Homes charmer giving you the best value for your money! First Impressions security doors, NEW roof with warranty and wood plank tile flooring added in 2017. New SS glass cook top range and dishwasher, fresh interior, exterior paint (including block fence) and new fans t/o. 3.5 ton heat pump 2014, 50 gallon hot water heater 2015. Extras like comfort height master bath toilet, 1 HP Waste King disposal, dusk to dawn security light, new washing machine plus a dryer convey. N/S exposure. Close to Downtown Gilbert/Chandler eateries/shops, San Tan 202, 101 freeways. Best-rated school district in AZ. Original owners. Home just needs your personal touch. The important stuff is DONE!

Listed with Hometown USA, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$349,900 :: 685 N LONGMORE Street, Chandler AZ, 85224

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,958 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 08/17/18, Last Updated: 08/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5808571
Community: ANDERSEN SPRINGS
Tract: ANDERSEN SPRINGS
Status: Active


Walk in to be WOWed in this specially UPGRADED & freshly painted complete home with 4 bedrooms and 3 car tandem garage. Being in master-planned Andersen springs, it is walking distance from lakes, parks and shopping. Inviting large yard leads into the sprawling formal living/dining area that leads into a super upgraded kitchen with GRANITE, backsplash and stainless steel appliances. It has a cute family dining area that is overlooking the yard. Family room has upscale flooring and wood burning fireplace! Master bathroom has been remodeled with designer shower and jet faucets. Master bedroom has it's own separate access to private patio area. Other bedrooms are large and the 4th bedroom can be showcased as a den or gym and has 2 doors with flowing access to formal living room.

Listed with Kirans and Associates Realty LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$825,000 :: 2442 S HERITAGE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85295

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 3,684 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,473 sq ft
Added: 08/17/18, Last Updated: 08/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5808605
Community: CASA RICA
Tract: CASA RICA
Status: Active


Beautiful Semi-Custom, Single-Level, Split Floorplan home on nearly half-acre lot (20,397 sq ft). Enjoy the upgraded, gourmet kitchen with a plethora of white-paneled cabinets, slab-granite countertops, travertine backsplash, stainless steel appliances, gas stove, walk-in pantry and huge island. The great room extraordinaire is spacious and boasts gorgeous hardwood floors (Mayan Pecan), which are carried t/o traffic areas, and a 20-foot wall of glass transitions you to the lush, green backyard; truly inside/outside AZ living in the heart of Gilbert. Split floorplan & each bedroom has its own bath. Master bedroom retreat has 10-ft ceiling and a master bathroom with extended walk-in closets. Foam exterior insulation, 3 Zone AC and fresh air circulation system make for low utility bills.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,190,000 :: 5725 S TOPAZ Place, Chandler AZ, 85249

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,571 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,473 sq ft
Added: 08/17/18, Last Updated: 08/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5808589
Community: VASARO
Tract: VASARO
Status: Active


This Stunning Traditional Contemporary, Open Concept Living w/high end amenities is located in the exclusive gated community of Vasaro. Nestled on a 1/2 Acre w/views of the SanTan Mtns. Well appointed w/Wolf & Sub Zero Appliances, the Chef's Kitchen has everything you need to create and entertain, including custom designed cabinetry, concrete countertops, and a huge working island w/bar seating. The home features wood plank porcelain flooring throughout, a fully tiled entertainment center w/gas fireplace & custom art piece, custom iron doors throughout, w/matching gates, classy closets w/built in storage drawers, dual tankless H20 heaters, soft H20 & carbon filtration w/RO spigot. The lush private backyard features a one of a kind Ramada w/built in Delta Grill & Rec Tec Smoker,

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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