Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$365,000 :: 418 N FALCON Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,470 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 12/11/19, Last Updated: 12/11/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6013652
Community: HIGHLAND RANCH PHASE 2 AMD
Tract: HIGHLAND RANCH PHASE 2 AMD
Status: Active


*Short sale* Looking for a spacious family home in an ideal location of Gilbert? If so then welcome home! This 4 bedroom & 2 bath home with a Den, and just under 2,800 sqft., will give you everything you are looking for. True split floorplan home with an oversized den that can easily be used as a 5th bedroom. Striking wood floors, tile, and newer carpet span the entire residence. Master bedroom has a bay window with separate exit to the backyard. Kitchen features ample cabinets, kitchen island, and stainless steel appliances. Relax on your oversized covered patio overlooking your sparkling and refreshing pool with no neighbors directly behind you. Come view your next home today!

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$239,900 :: 1716 W SHAWNEE Drive, Chandler AZ, 85224

2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,187 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 12/11/19, Last Updated: 12/11/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6013656
Community: CAMEO EAST 1
Tract: CAMEO EAST 1
Status: Active


Great move-in ready 2 bed, 2 bath in Chandler with an incredible backyard! This home features tile flooring, newer carpet, ceiling fans and inside laundry. The kitchen includes ample storage, a window box, built-in microwave, dishwasher, RO system and a garbage disposal. The huge tiled patio leads to a well-maintained backyard with a large grass area, mature landscaping, block walls, a double gate, storage shed plus a bonus room off of the patio. This home has a 2-car carport and Pomeroy Elementary and Shawnee park are a short walk down the street. This is a great location for shopping, dining and easy access to freeways.

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$445,000 :: 2758 E RAWHIDE Street, Gilbert AZ, 85296

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,296 sq ft
Lot Size: 15,246 sq ft
Added: 12/11/19, Last Updated: 12/11/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6013598
Community: GREENFIELD LAKES PARCEL 1
Tract: GREENFIELD LAKES PARCEL 1
Status: Active


Gilbert's Best is now available!!! Come fast if you would like the opportunity to own in one of the areas most sought after communities in town! This 4 bed 2 bath semi custom home that sits on a corner lot with a backyard that you could get lost in.. the front yard holds a beautiful sitting area. With large bedrooms and amazing upgrades in each bathroom and a kitchen That was designed to satisfy.. With tons of room for possible home expansion further confirms how exciting this home is to be available..

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$510,000 :: 2471 W MARLIN Drive, Chandler AZ, 85286

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,199 sq ft
Lot Size: 15,246 sq ft
Added: 09/26/19, Last Updated: 12/11/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5983398
Community: BRITTANY HEIGHTS
Tract: BRITTANY HEIGHTS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/11/2019 by 0%
Status: Active


LOCATION - LOCATION - LOCATION!!! You will not want to miss this beautiful home in CHANDLER. You will fall in love with the open split floor-plan and backyard oasis. This home boasts 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, massive kitchen, oversized tile, built-in BBQ with a swim up bar and one of the biggest lot's in the neighborhood. The interior has fresh paint and new carpet. This gorgeous home is near local hang-outs, shopping or dining. Hop on the freeway or use Price Road to easily get to where you are headed for the day. This is a must see!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$410,000 :: 2644 E BLUE SPRUCE Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,109 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 12/11/19, Last Updated: 12/11/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6013562
Community: FREEMAN FARMS PHASE 2 PARCEL 2
Tract: FREEMAN FARMS PHASE 2 PARCEL 2
Status: Active


Welcome home to Blue Spruce! Your north/south facing home gives you the perfect amount of sunlight - not too much! Pull into your garage with space for three vehicles or enter through your front door faced with stone. Your entryway is refreshingly bright with designer neutral paint, white trim and beautiful wood plank style tile flooring. Move into your open concept living, dining, and kitchen space. The trimmed espresso cabinets opposite your breakfast bar warm up the color scheme and offer plenty of storage above and below. Your stainless steel appliances all match and your countertops are gleaming quartz. Your dining area is surrounded by windows with easy to clean white shutters, brightening up your breakfast time.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Phoenix


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$359,900 :: 1362 E Butler Circle, Chandler AZ, 85225

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,180 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 12/11/19, Last Updated: 12/11/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6013603
Community: SPRINGS UNIT 2 AMD LOT 30-213 217-276 278-454
Tract: SPRINGS UNIT 2 AMD LOT 30-213 217-276 278-454
Status: Active


Beautiful waterfront home, updated stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops. Relax & enjoy the sound of the waterfall near by, home is at the ned of the street in a quite cul-de-sac! Formal dining and living areas with vaulted ceilings. Fantastic eat-in kitchen with a beautiful water view, breakfast bar and built-in desk area. Arcadia Doors to patio from family room. Grand master retreat with walk-in closet and private ensuite. One bedroom with full bath down stairs. Pomegranate & Citrus trees in the backyard with brand new faux grass. Newer garage door installed in 2016. Great Chandler location! Fish stocked in the lake frequently, kayaking & boating in the larger lakes, tennis court and community pool. Enjoy boating, fishing and much more...

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$375,000 :: 1121 N JOSHUA TREE Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,622 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 12/06/19, Last Updated: 12/11/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6010951
Community: CAROL RAE RANCH
Tract: CAROL RAE RANCH
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/11/2019 by 4%
Status: Active


PRICED TO SELL!! Home does need some updating. Great floor plan! 3-bedrooms upstairs plus a loft. 3-bathrooms. Hardwood floors in loft and hallway. Downstairs has a den that could be converted to 4th bedroom. Main floor has beautiful rough edge tile throughout. Master suite has separate tub/shower. Walk out deck off master bedroom. Beautiful landscaped backyard with private pool, waterfall, and slide for the kids! 3-car garage. Mature trees in front and back yard. A MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE!

Listed with Manara Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$339,000 :: 6682 W SHANNON Street, Chandler AZ, 85226

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,746 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 12/11/19, Last Updated: 12/11/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6013511
Community: CHANDLER CROSSING UNIT 1
Tract: CHANDLER CROSSING UNIT 1
Status: Active


Location, location, location!! This lovely 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home with a pool is located in the highly sought after Chandler Crossing subdivision. Close to all major highways, and all of the best shopping and dining! Main floor has beautiful dark manufactured wood floors throughout and tile in the kitchen. Formal living and dining room, family room is open to the kitchen. Half bath on the main floor. Spacious master bedroom boasts vaulted ceiling, his and hers walk in closets, and separate garden tub and walk in shower. 2 generous sized secondary bedrooms. Second floor laundry!! Tons of storage in the garage. Welcoming backyard is home to the generous sized play pool, large grass area, an orange tree and rose bushes. Brand new pool pump, motor, and filter as of November 2019.

Listed with Revelation Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$522,384 :: 1843 S Wallrade Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,991 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 12/11/19, Last Updated: 12/11/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6013512
Community: RAY AND RECKER PHASE 1
Tract: RAY AND RECKER PHASE 1
Status: Active


Have you ever walked into a model home and said to yourself ''WOW - I could totally live here''! Now you can! This FORMER MODEL home at Ambition at Recker Pointe is available for sale! DESIGNER touches throughout interior + exterior landscaping! With 4 bedrooms/3.5 baths PLUS an office with barn doors, a designated game room with direct access to backyard AND an upstairs loft, the living possibilities are endless! The 2 car garage has an extended area for a shop/hobby/extra storage! Kitchen is STUNNING with dark cabinets, quartz countertops and breakfast bar! SO MANY UPGRADES and beautiful details added to this home that you must see for yourself. Run don't walk! All of this in a lovely community located in a great area of town w/shopping/restaurants/San Tan Village! WELCOME HOME!

Listed with Homelife Professionals


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$375,850 :: 1852 W THOMPSON Way, Chandler AZ, 85286

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,247 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 08/22/19, Last Updated: 12/11/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5968244
Community: SAN MARTIN AT THE VINEYARDS
Tract: SAN MARTIN AT THE VINEYARDS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/9/2019 by 1%
Status: Active


Prepare to be amazed! Come and see this lavish 4 bed, 3 bath property now for sale in Chandler! Pride of ownership and meticulously maintained. Featuring updated wood plank tile floors throughout downstairs, neutral custom paint, this home's nothing short of a dream come true! You'll love the fabulous kitchen, with its ample cabinetry, pantry, granite countertops, tile backsplash, and matching appliances. Full Bedroom and remodeled bathroom downstairs. The master bedroom boasts a fully remodeled spa like bath with double sinks as well as separate tub and shower. The expansive backyard, with its cozy covered patio, is perfect for spending a relaxing summer afternoon! The good ones never last, don't waste any time and schedule a showing today!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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