Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$379,000 :: 4633 S CALICO Road, Gilbert AZ, 85297

5 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,667 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,276 sq ft
Added: 10/21/18, Last Updated: 10/21/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5836455
Community: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 1
Tract: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 1
Status: Active


Here's an absolutely beautiful 4 bedroom (plus den) home in Power Ranch that has been meticulously cared for by its original owners. There's a living room, family room and a dining room. Upstairs, you have four bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Downstairs, you'll find a large den / fifth bedroom. Yes, the den has a closet. It also has double doors and a beautiful built-in desk / workspace. There's also a bathroom and a large laundry room on the first floor of the home. You'll love the beautifully landscaped yards, large covered patio, awesome firepit, built-in-BBQ, tons of brick pavers, huge 3 car garage, rv gate and a very private back yard. Take a look at the photos to see how beautiful the home and neighborhood is. Better yet, take a look at this great home today!

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$315,000 :: 2893 E CRESCENT Way, Gilbert AZ, 85298

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,651 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,969 sq ft
Added: 10/07/18, Last Updated: 10/21/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5830162
Community: SHAMROCK ESTATES PHASE 1
Tract: SHAMROCK ESTATES PHASE 1
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/17/2018 by 2%
Status: Conditional


ONLY HOME at this price range in the highly desirable Shamrock Estates! Be charmed by the stone facade and whimsical landscaping before entering through a brand new keyless entry front door. Vaulted ceilings in the greatroom, kitchen and master bedroom give this home the open feeling you're looking for! Recently updated kitchen features plenty of cabinet storage, spacious kitchen island, silestone countertops with complementary mosaic tiled backsplash, gas range, pantry, and all appliances less than 2 years old! Master bedroom split from secondary bedrooms is complete with walk-in closet and master bath including dual sink vanity, upgraded light fixtures and linen closet large enough to store all your linens and then some! This lovely home has 3 additional bedrooms and an office/de

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$283,999 :: 831 W SIERRA MADRE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,687 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,791 sq ft
Added: 08/10/18, Last Updated: 10/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5805058
Community: DAVE BROWN UNIT 5
Tract: DAVE BROWN UNIT 5
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/20/2018 by 0%
Status: Active


This gorgeous single level home is waiting for you! Home was completely gone through from top to bottom including brand new interior and exterior paint, brand new carpet in the bedrooms, brand new shower/tub combo, brand new bathroom countertops, brand new epoxy in the garage and much more!Spacious walk in closet in the master room.Backyard features a blank canvas with a patio and plenty of room for you dream oasis! This one will surely go fast so hurry in today!

Listed with Better Choice Homes, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$310,000 :: 1950 E ROSS Drive, Chandler AZ, 85225

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,729 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 10/05/18, Last Updated: 10/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5829478
Community: ASHLEY PARK
Tract: ASHLEY PARK
Status: Active


*BOM* Get ready to fall in love with this wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath Fulton home located in the coveted Ashley Park Chandler community. The interior boasts an open great room split floor plan with soaring vaulted ceilings, arched doorways, two tone neutral paint and brand new carpet throughout! The kitchen boasts solid wood cabinets, gas range option and island with breakfast bar. Open, bright & feels much larger than it is. The master features bay window and an expansive bath with separate tub/shower and dual sinks and walk in closet. Both baths offer easy care new wood grain vinyl flooring. 12 foot slider walks you out to the lush green private back yard with extended patio and no neighbors behind you. Newer 14 seer AC unit and meticulously maintained home! Clean and move in ready

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$398,000 :: 1223 E LARK Street, Gilbert AZ, 85297

Property Photo

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,732 sq ft
Lot Size: 17,859 sq ft
Added: 10/20/18, Last Updated: 10/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5836446
Community: ESTATES AT THE SPECTRUM
Tract: ESTATES AT THE SPECTRUM
Status: Active


$5000 credit to buyer towards upgrades!!!THIS IS IT FOLKS!!! You don't see lots like this everyday...believe me!! Absolutely HUGE and perfectly landscaped backyard, over 18,000 square feet!! Desirable North/South exposure, Featuring a beautiful sitting area with extended pavers and a gazebo for your enjoyment. Large grass area, as well as fruit trees surround the property. Prime Gilbert location only one mile south of the 202 freeway AND conveniently located near EVERYTHING!This well maintained home features 5 Bedrooms, 3.5 Baths, With a bedroom and a full bath downstairs perfect for guests or mother-in-laws! Upstairs we have 4 Bedrooms Plus a Huge loft perfect for family entertainment. Also, the laundry room is upstairs

Listed with The Maricopa Real Estate Co


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$439,900 :: 3701 E PALMER Street, Gilbert AZ, 85298

Property Photo

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,784 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 10/20/18, Last Updated: 10/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5836414
Community: SEVILLE PARCEL 3
Tract: SEVILLE PARCEL 3
Status: Active


This gorgeous home, which has been painted in and out is located in the highly coveted Seville Golf & Country Club development is for sale by original owner. Home has 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths and includes a 3-car garage, large kitchen with island, balcony access off of the master, built in BBQ and bar, outdoor firepit, fireplace, custom paint, built-in entertainment center, upgraded flooring. Close proximity to Mesa Gateway Airport, ASU East Campus, Shopping and Freeways. This is it, move-in today; It's a resort lifestyle community. complete with a private golf and country club, and walking paths

Listed with Nations Investments Corp


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$449,000 :: 3022 E Jade Court, Chandler AZ, 85286

Property Photo

Mls Icon

3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,487 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 10/20/18, Last Updated: 10/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5836419
Community: Layton Lakes
Tract: Layton Lakes
Status: Active


3BDRM + DEN + GAME ROOM = PERFECT! Welcome to the popular ''Hillary'' floorplan by Taylor Morrison Homes. This Chandler beauty far exceeds any other home on the market. White kitchen cabinets, white subway tile backsplash, Quartz countertops, stainless appliances, large kitchen island with oversized sink + breakfast bar. The kitchen flows right into the living room and the master sits separate from bedrooms 2, 3 and the den. Wood laminate floors, New Carpet + Tile in all the right places. The laundry room comes equip with a sink + washer & gas dryer! Jack & Jill bathroom, ceiling fans, window blinds, vaulted ceilings, powder bathroom with a touch of MODERN FARMHOUSE FEELS. North/South exposure, cul de sac lot with TURF GRASS backyard, glass resort style gate around HEATED PLAY POOL!

Listed with Revelation Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$379,520 :: 3190 W FRANKFURT Drive, Chandler AZ, 85226

Property Photo

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,372 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,662 sq ft
Added: 10/20/18, Last Updated: 10/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5836441
Community: MOUNTAINSIDE RANCH
Tract: MOUNTAINSIDE RANCH
Status: Active


Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom family home with large den or game room in centrally located Mountainside Ranch community. Desirably situated next to the 101 and 202, Chandler Fashion Square, Chandler Regional Hospital, Mesa Community College, retail, restaurants and supermarkets. Home comes complete with mature landscaping, wood floors (no carpet!) and vaulted ceilings.

Listed with Camelback Real Estate Assoc.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$379,000 :: 654 N YUCCA Street, Chandler AZ, 85224

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,676 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,276 sq ft
Added: 10/20/18, Last Updated: 10/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5836407
Community: HAMILTON HOMES 1 AT ANDERSEN S
Tract: HAMILTON HOMES 1 AT ANDERSEN S
Status: Active


ASK THE NEIGHBORS WHAT THEY THINK ABOUT THE NEIGHBORHOOD. YOU'LL FIND FRIENDLY PEOPLE WHO THINK THEY LIVE IN THE NICEST BLOCK ON THE STREET. YOU'LL ALSO FIND A 4 BEDROOM 2.5 BATH HOME WITH A LARGE OPEN FLOOR PLAN GREAT FOR ENTERTAINMENT. LIVING ROOM, FORMAL DINING OPEN KITCHEN, FAMILY ROOM AND MASTER ALL ON MAIN FLOOR. ALL OTHER BEDROOMS ABOVE ON 2ND FLOOR. LARGE YARD WITH CHILDREN's PLAY AREA, POOL, AND STORAGE AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF YARD. THIS HOME FACES THE EAST WITH THE REAR FACING THE WEST. NO-ONE BEHIND THE HOME AND NO-ONE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HOME SO ONLY ONE NEIGHBOR ON NORTH SIDE.2x6 CONSTRUCTION FRAME THRU THE HOUSE

Listed with VIP Family Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$385,000 :: 1098 W BOSAL Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,389 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 10/20/18, Last Updated: 10/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5836287
Community: ARTEMINA
Tract: ARTEMINA
Status: Active


Beautiful Artemina now has a single level home available! This property is situated on a N/S premium lot right next to the park with view fence - send the kids to play next door to enjoy the grass without the maintenance! Upgraded kitchen cabinets, 20'' tile, surround sound, dual master closets, huge kitchen with plenty of storage and upgraded cabinets,new carpeting installed 10/18. Beautiful pool with water feature. Laundry room with extra storage and sink.3rd car vgarage was converted to bonus room by previous sellers.Welcome to a fun and friendly neighborhood, and just a bike ride away from downtown Gilbert!

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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