Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

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Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$995,000 :: 1422 W COMMERCE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

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5 beds, 5 baths
Home size: 6,298 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,018 sq ft
Added: 08/17/18, Last Updated: 08/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5808435
Community: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Status: Active


Luxury Waterski Community in the heart of Gilbert! The rarest combination of Location AND Lifestyle! This home has been designed and built with Lifestyle, Family, and Thoughtful Functionality in mind. 5 Beds, 5 baths, Sound-dampened Office, 2 full kitchens, 3 laundry rooms, 4-car air-conditioned garage, loads of storage, and, of course a corner lot with north-facing lake view with private dock and beach front on one of only 3 waterski lakes in the East Valley. The ski lake has a 5 buoy course for competition training or learning. You won't find another one like this! When you come in from activities on the lake, you find a 17-ft kitchen island highlighting a fantastic kitchen/family room.

Listed with THG Realty, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,145,000 :: 340 N SHORE Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,100 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,037 sq ft
Added: 02/22/18, Last Updated: 08/15/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5726800
Community: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT
Tract: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/15/2018 by 5%
Status: Active


Arizona Lifestyle at its Finest! Outstanding Waterfront Home located in the beautiful gated community of Crystal Point Estates. Walk out to your boathouse, push a button to lower the boat and enjoy water skiing, wakeboarding, or tubing in your own backyard or enjoy a peaceful cruise around the lake on a paddleboard. It's all about the Arizona Waterfront Lifestyle and Watersports and it's all in Your Backyard! This GORGEOUS 5 BR 3 Bath 3100 sq ft home has been recently updated and is Move-in Ready. A perfect home for entertaining inside and out. It features all new tinted, double pane, low E windows, complete new roof in 2016, newer A/C units, new natural looking wood grain tile throughout, soaring ceilings, soothing palette, large windows,new carpet. Chefs kitchen features-see more

Listed with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$750,000 :: 2020 E FREEPORT Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,062 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,454 sq ft
Added: 06/25/18, Last Updated: 08/14/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5785216
Community: Regatta at Val Vista Lakes
Tract: Regatta at Val Vista Lakes
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/14/2018 by 6%
Status: Active


Paver walk way leads to this beautiful waterfront home, completely remodeled and ready ** Enter to spacious living room and dining room ** Fireplace in family room with surround sound ** Gourmet kitchen with all new stainless steel appliances, granite counter tops, loads of storage and refrigerator will stay ** Master suite is kingsize with jacuzzi tub and separate shower, double sinks, gas fireplace and balcony with marble floors overlooking yard ** Large yard with pebble sheen swimming pool, separate jacuzzi, pomegranate, orange and lemon trees, loads of grassy play area, and boat dock ** There is so much to mention here and a few extras include shutters throughout, marble floors throughout, stone covered fireplaces and pillars outside, motorized chandelier can be lowered for cleaning,

Listed with Penfield Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$415,000 :: 1221 N KINGSTON Street, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,732 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 07/05/18, Last Updated: 08/12/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5789175
Community: EL DORADO LAKES GOLF COMMUNITY
Tract: EL DORADO LAKES GOLF COMMUNITY
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/12/2018 by 2%
Status: Active


El Dorado Lakes on Golf Course w/Lake View! 4+Den w/3 full baths boasts numerous upgrades. Gourmet kitchen upgraded w/large island, beautiful granite & stainless appliances. Formal living&dining rm provide space for special events.Experience a more casual evening in the family rm w/a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Wind down & escape upstairs to a cozy sitting rm off the master w/vaulted ceilings or pamper yourself in the upgraded master bath w/new tiled shower & Moen faucets. Outdoor living at its best- huge flagstone patio & balcony off master that overlooks a sparkling PebbleTec play pool, beautiful rock waterfall, #12 tee-box, a water feature & views of the Superstitions Mtns for year-round entertainment, fun & relaxation. Price incorporates a discount for carpet & future upgrades. ONLY

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$385,000 :: 1418 W CORAL REEF Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,459 sq ft
Lot Size: 2,178 sq ft
Added: 08/09/18, Last Updated: 08/09/18
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5804789
Community: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF LOT 1-
Tract: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF LOT 1-
Status: Active


Resort style living at ''The Islands'' in Gilbert. This 2 story family Townhome has beautiful Lake Views. Home boasts 3 bedrooms, 3 baths plus a Den/Bonus room downstairs as well as a 2 car garage. Home features new flooring, carpet and wood look porcelain tile. Kitchen features Granite and Stainless Steel appliances. Upstairs features a spacious Master with balcony overlooking the lake. Also upstairs are 2 additional bedrooms, very spacious bathroom and living area. *Don't forget to look under the stairs for the hidden storage area*

Listed with RE/MAX Fine Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$409,900 :: 1765 W ASPEN Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,732 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,503 sq ft
Added: 06/07/18, Last Updated: 08/08/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5777263
Community: EL DORADO LAKES GOLF COMMUNITY
Tract: EL DORADO LAKES GOLF COMMUNITY
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/8/2018 by 5%
Status: Active


A SUMMER GIFT FOR YOUR BUYER! HUGE $40,000 in price drops on this great WATERFRONT home in El Dorado Lakes Golf community. Big yard with lots of space for anything. Double side gate for ez access. Big covered patio overlooking the lake and golf course. Attached is a well laid out,updated,almost 2800 sqft 2-story home with plenty of space for everyone. Downstairs separate bedroom with full bath next to it is perfect Mother-in-law/generational set-up. Big laundry room. Big and open kitchen w/island & highly upgraded cabinets and family room area all w/windows to the fabulous backyard lake view. Formal living, formal dining, breakfast area too. Upstairs are big bedrooms and master with walk out deck and big master bath w/dual closets and dual vanities.Check the pics then come and see it!

Listed with Imperial Realty Services, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$649,900 :: 518 S BAY SHORE Boulevard, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,249 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 08/04/18, Last Updated: 08/04/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5802698
Community: HARBOR POINT LOT 1-78 LAKE EAS
Tract: HARBOR POINT LOT 1-78 LAKE EAS
Status: Active


WOW WOW! Wow ! Honey stop the car !Finally a 2018 looking remodeled home. Ready to move in next week !! Luxury lake home on the wide part of the water with a pool !! This one is loaded up like a model home, plank tile floors throughout first floor except master suite. White cabinetry in kicthen, new granite through entire house. carpets replaced, new light gray paint, white doors, all new door hardware, built in office cabinets, built in master suite. Custom wood shutters throughout, 6'' baseboard and 6'' coffered ceiling, seller really customized this home to stay. This lake allows electric boats too, you hav eto see the boat parades, what a great neighborhood and community, won't last long !!Please note seller will add closet to den as originally built at sellers expense.

Listed with Arizona Real Estate Services


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$467,499 :: 542 N MONDEL Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,913 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 01/29/18, Last Updated: 08/01/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5715811
Community: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/1/2018 by 1%
Status: Active


WOW! Honey stop the car, this is a great location close to schools, parks & shopping. A highly desirable area with a ski lake. This home is on the water with a fountain you can see from all your rear facing windows. 4 bedroom with one bedroom downstairs & a full bath downstairs, formal living & dining, Gourmet kitchen with granite counter tops open to the great room,3 bedrooms upstairs & loft, tile in all the right spots. Huge covered patio with barbecue great views to enjoy all year long. 2 car garage with cabinets, new water heater & dishwasher and fresh paint. Truly a must see, it won't last long.

Listed with Southwest Mountain Realty, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$465,000 :: 1248 N PALMSPRINGS Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,083 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 05/27/18, Last Updated: 07/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5772091
Community: Val Vista Lakes
Tract: Val Vista Lakes
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/16/2018 by 2%
Status: Active


WATERFRONT LOT! SPECTACULAR REGATTA LAKE VIEW! A former model home w/3BR+loft. Casual elegance in LR/DR with plantation shutters, vaulted ceilings & a gracious stairway. Family room boasts a fireplace. Kitchen has solid surface counters. Relax on the 2nd story balcony w/awsome views of the lake. All new upgraded carpet, large tile & light fixtures. The garage has professionally installed epoxy floors and cabinets. Backyard features heated play pool and flagstone. Enjoy the ammenities which include the multi-million dollar clubhouse, heated pool, sandy beach, tennis, racquetball, weight rm., banquet areas, plus 4 lakes and many walking paths w/low HOA. Great Gilbert schools.thank you!

Listed with LRA Real Estate Group, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$749,888 :: 1912 E CATAMARAN Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,798 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,939 sq ft
Added: 01/11/18, Last Updated: 07/02/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5707695
Community: VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: VAL VISTA LAKES
Status: Active


THIS HOME IS IDEALLY SITUATED ON ONE OF THE LARGEST NORTH/SOUTH FACING WATERFRONT LOTS & HAS ONE OF THE MOST OPEN SPACIOUS FLOORPLANS IN REGATTA. (A Val Vista Lakes Community)IDEALLY LOCATED ON A CUL DE SAC, THE HOME IS SET BACK WITH A LONG WIDE DRIVEWAY THAT ACCOMMODATES PARKING FOR 3 CARS DEEP AND 3 CARS WIDE IN ADDITION TO THE OVERSIZED 3 CAR GARAGE.ADDITIONALLY, THIS HOME BOASTS ONE OF THE LARGEST BACK YARDS IN REGATTA WITH A REMODELED PEBBLE TEC SALTWATER POOL WITH NEW FILTER AND VARIABLE SPEED PUMP, SALTWATER SPA AND LARGE TRAVERTINE PAVER PATIO. ENJOY THE PRIVACY AND ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS VIEWS FROM THE COVERED ENTERTAINING AREA OR MASTER BALCONY. YOU CAN SIMPLY RELAX IN THE SPARKLING POOL OR TAKE THE BOAT OUT FROM YOUR PRIVATE DOCK THAT INCLUDES ELECTRIC AND WATER. Home features

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

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