Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

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Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$338,000 :: 1326 W CLEAR SPRING Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,016 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,920 sq ft
Added: 12/11/18, Last Updated: 12/12/18
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5856478
Community: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
Tract: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
Status: Active


WATERFRONT LAKEFRONT LOT in a GATED COMMUNITY with a gorgeous backyard that backs up to the water. Sit out on the balcony and watch the beautiful waterfall. Home has bay windows in the dining room and kitchen. Awesome views from the dining room. Home has Two Zone Air Conditioners. Masterbath has separate Shower and Tub. Home flows smoothly and has great views. Also you can put your boat in the big lake and take it up to the community pool and spa.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$390,000 :: 1221 N KINGSTON Street, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,732 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 07/05/18, Last Updated: 12/10/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5789175
Community: EL DORADO LAKES GOLF COMMUNITY TRACT E
Tract: EL DORADO LAKES GOLF COMMUNITY TRACT E
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/10/2018 by 1%
Status: Active


El Dorado Lakes on Golf Course w/Lake View! 4+Den w/3 full baths boasts numerous upgrades. Gourmet kitchen upgraded w/large island, beautiful granite & stainless appliances. Formal living&dining rm provide space for special events.Experience a more casual evening in the family rm w/a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Wind down & escape upstairs to a cozy sitting rm off the master w/vaulted ceilings or pamper yourself in the upgraded master bath w/new tiled shower & Moen faucets. Outdoor living at its best- huge flagstone patio & balcony off master that overlooks a sparkling PebbleTec play pool, beautiful rock waterfall, #12 tee-box, a water feature & views of the Superstitions Mtns for year-round entertainment, fun & relaxation. Price incorporates a discount for carpet & future upgrades. ONLY

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$349,900 :: 621 S PARADISE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,797 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 12/08/18, Last Updated: 12/09/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5855616
Community: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
Tract: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
Status: Active


This is living at it best!! Move in ready and totally furnished (optional) beautiful, light, bright, and open waterfront home in the highly desirable, gated community of The Falls in the Islands.Home has a spacious eat in kitchen and a family room that overlooks the lagoon with its peaceful sounds of the cascading waterfalls. Large master bedroom has a deck that provides amazing sunriise views and overlooks the water features.Home is just minutes away from the large, sparkling community pool and heated spa which overlook the main lake. The Islands community features a beautiful entry fountain, community center, large parks, boating, fishing and much more...HOA covers street maintenance, homes painted every 7 years, and even includes both front and rear landscaping.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$695,000 :: 2020 E FREEPORT Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,062 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,454 sq ft
Added: 06/25/18, Last Updated: 12/08/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5785216
Community: Regatta at Val Vista Lakes
Tract: Regatta at Val Vista Lakes
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/8/2018 by 4%
Status: Active


Paver walk way leads to this beautiful waterfront home, completely remodeled and ready ** Enter to spacious living room and dining room ** Fireplace in family room with surround sound ** Gourmet kitchen with all new stainless steel appliances, granite counter tops, loads of storage and refrigerator will stay ** Master suite is kingsize with jacuzzi tub and separate shower, double sinks, gas fireplace and balcony with marble floors overlooking yard ** Large yard with pebble sheen swimming pool, separate jacuzzi, pomegranate, orange and lemon trees, loads of grassy play area, and boat dock ** There is so much to mention here and a few extras include shutters throughout, marble floors throughout, stone covered fireplaces and pillars outside, motorized chandelier can be lowered for cleaning,

Listed with Penfield Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$720,000 :: 1826 E Cascade Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,870 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,454 sq ft
Added: 11/30/18, Last Updated: 12/08/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5852673
Community: Val Vista Lakes Crystal Shores
Tract: Val Vista Lakes Crystal Shores
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/8/2018 by 1%
Status: Active


Come experience waterfront living at Val Vista Lakes. Conveniently located to Dana Park and U.S. 60. This three bedroom with den/3 bath home is completely updated with tile floors, plush carpeting and granite counter tops. Balcony off master suite overlooking the lake. Take in all the breathtaking views Val Vista Lakes has to offer. See video and 3D tour links and be sure to visit the clubhouse to see all that is included in your low HOA fees, including tennis complex, indoor racquetball courts, cardio and weight training facilities, junior Olympic swimming pool and spa, banquet and meeting rooms, waterfalls and a tropical lagoon swimming pool with a sandy beach. Drive through the neighborhood to see the many sports parks and bicycle paths.

Listed with Homesmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$590,000 :: 1109 W PENINSULA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,613 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,583 sq ft
Added: 11/15/18, Last Updated: 11/29/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5847382
Community: WINDHAVEN LOT 1-65 TR A-C
Tract: WINDHAVEN LOT 1-65 TR A-C
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/29/2018 by 2%
Status: Active


Spectacular waterfront Islands home in Gilbert is now on the market! This gorgeous 3 bed + Den, 2 bath home features a fabulous interior boasting vaulted ceilings, great room with tons of natural light, plantation shutters in all the right places, tile flooring throughout, den perfect for a game room, and cozy fireplace in family room. Gourmet kitchen is equipped with nice appliances, ample cabinets, granite countertops, island, and breakfast room. Spacious master suite has a lavish bath with dual sinks, soaking tub, shower with block glass, and backyard exit. Stunning backyard offers built-in BBQ, personal putting green, sparkling blue pool, private deck, and covered patio giving you a one of a kind lake view.

Listed with Dempsey Group Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,775,000 :: 193 N SKI Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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6 beds, 7 baths
Home size: 6,700 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,037 sq ft
Added: 09/20/17, Last Updated: 11/28/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5662648
Community: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT
Tract: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/28/2018 by 1%
Status: Active


Beautiful Custom home on a private water ski lake. Water ski, tube, wakeboard, all out your back door. This home is the builders personal home. Custom in every way. Master Suite, plus office & guest bedroom all on the first floor. All bedrooms have their own full bathroom. Open great room with 21ft ceiling open wall of windows to the beautiful lake view. Granite counter tops, Top of the line stainless steel appliances, double ovens, warming draw, 6 burner Thermador Cook top, custom oak cabinets through out the home. Large center island with vegetable sink & eating area. Large covered patio with built in misters, built in BBQ & sink. Private boat dock with sink & small refrigerator. Large ski house to store tubes, wake boards, skis Large 5 car garage with built in cabinets, epoxy floor

Listed with The Hogan Group LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$329,900 :: 628 S CATALINA Street, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,691 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 11/15/18, Last Updated: 11/27/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5847317
Community: LAGO ESTANCIA
Tract: LAGO ESTANCIA
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/27/2018 by 3%
Status: Active


Walk in & feel right at HOME in this waterfront home*Great view while you're entertained by the birds, ducks & cranes*Friendly lake community, tree lined streets*Walking paths*Well cared for clean home*Plantation shutters*Spacious island kitchen with lots of cabinets and new granite counters*Large pantry, New Microwave & DW*16'' Ceramic tile everywhere except new carpet in living room & bedrooms*new SS sink & faucet*Breakfast Bar*Spacious Master bath w/his & her vanities*Huge master walk-in closet*Family room opens to backyard*covered patio great for entertaining*Freshly painted interior*Brick borders new synthetic grass*Very low maintenance yard*Close to all the great entertainment, restaurants & shops in downtown Gilbert*NEW AC summer 2018

Listed with Realty Gallery


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$799,900 :: 1518 E TREASURE COVE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,323 sq ft
Lot Size: 17,424 sq ft
Added: 11/15/18, Last Updated: 11/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5847599
Community: WEST LAKE ESTATES LOT 1-40 TRACT A-C
Tract: WEST LAKE ESTATES LOT 1-40 TRACT A-C
Status: Active


Exquisite highly desirable custom waterfront home in prestigious West Lake Estates on a huge lot. 5 beds/3 baths. Beautiful chefs kitchen w/cherry cabinets, granite countertops, all stainless steel appliances, double convection ovens and fridge. Gorgeous travertine and cherry wood floors. Combination family/game rooms w/pool table, wine cellar and bar area for indoor entertaining. Custom columns and designer's touches everywhere. Master bed has balcony overlooking large backyard, lake and mountain views. Huge master bath w/jacuzzi. Fabulous resort backyard w/ heated pool, spa, travertine patio, custom fireplace and lush landscaping. 2 RV gates. Everything has been highly upgraded! Access to Val Vista Lake amenities: pools, beach, spa, lagoon, tennis, racketball, gym + clubhouse. MUST SEE!!

Listed with Arizona Oasis Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$614,900 :: 826 S COPPER KEY Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,032 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,276 sq ft
Added: 11/15/18, Last Updated: 11/15/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5847112
Community: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS
Tract: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS
Status: Active


Blending relaxation and sophistication to create the ideal home! Masterful design and luxury are uniquely embodied in this 5 bedroom 3.5 bath 2 story home with 4032 SF! Travertine walkway leads to the front door, and upon entering your eye catches the sweeping grand staircase ahead and the expansive open floor concept. The incredible island kitchen features dark cabinetry, plant shelving, pantry, white appliances, breakfast bar, and recessed lighting. This home includes its very own movie room, with a 110 inch projection screen, surround sound speaker system, custom Venetian plaster walls, LED lighting, and ramp access to each tiered level. Please see more remarks for more info.

Listed with Revelation Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

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