Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

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Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$775,000 :: 1518 E TREASURE COVE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,323 sq ft
Lot Size: 17,424 sq ft
Added: 03/14/19, Last Updated: 04/20/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5895944
Community: WEST LAKE ESTATES LOT 1-40 TRACT A-C
Tract: WEST LAKE ESTATES LOT 1-40 TRACT A-C
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/20/2019 by 1%
Status: Active


REDUCED,BACK ON THE MARKET W/ NEW UPDATES! Custom, luxury waterfront home in prestigious West Lake Estates on a huge lot. 5 beds/3 baths. Beautiful chefs kitchen w/cherry cabinets, granite countertops, all stainless steel appliances, double convection ovens, fridge. Travertine+cherry wood floors. Beautiful custom window treatments. Combination family/game rooms w/pool table, wine cellar and bar area for indoor entertainment. Master bed has balcony overlooking large backyard, lake and mountain views. Huge master bath w/jacuzzi. Fabulous resort backyard w/ heated pool, spa, travertine patio, custom fireplace and lush landscaping. 2 RV gates. Everything has been highly upgraded! Access to Val Vista Lake amenities: pools, beach, spa, lagoon, tennis, racketball, gym, clubhouse. Home Warranty.

Listed with Arizona Oasis Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$382,000 :: 1342 W CORAL REEF Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,289 sq ft
Lot Size: 1,743 sq ft
Added: 04/19/19, Last Updated: 04/19/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5914005
Community: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF LOT 1-53 TRACT A-G
Tract: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF LOT 1-53 TRACT A-G
Status: Active


Fantastic waterfront home with incredible views! This elegant 3 bed, 2.5 bath cul-de-sac home is located in the fabulous Islands Community. Relax and enjoy fishing from your backyard! Your gourmet kitchen boasts a functional island, breakfast bar, and lovely maple cabinets. Your living room has great water views and natural lighting. Upstairs, your master suite has a private balcony and a full master bath. Fabulous wood flooring and neutral carpeting in all the right places enhance the living spaces. Schedule your showing today!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$699,000 :: 1717 E Coco Palm Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 4,052 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,197 sq ft
Added: 02/01/19, Last Updated: 04/18/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5876441
Community: VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/18/2019 by 4%
Status: Active


Welcome to your DREAM HOME with a basement! Gorgeous 5 bed / 4 bath, 3 car extended depth garage and side double gate!! This lakeside home in the HIGHLY DESIRABLE Val Vista Lakes, GATED ''Lakeside'' community. New exterior and interior paint, carpet, most of the interior hardware and light fixtures and many other various trim work!!! Home features a wide open floor plan, easy clean-up tile flooring and beautiful finishes throughout. Outstanding chef's kitchen fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and tons of wood cabinet storage. LARGE living room has stunning wood flooring, custom stone fireplace, built-in entertainment center and double doors to backyard access. Backyard has grassy area, nice patio areas and a custom boat dock!!! This is a stunning home!!

Listed with Results Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$453,000 :: 1346 W WINDRIFT Way, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,121 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,227 sq ft
Added: 04/05/19, Last Updated: 04/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5907215
Community: SANDCASTLE VILLAGE LOT 1-31 TR A-D
Tract: SANDCASTLE VILLAGE LOT 1-31 TR A-D
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/17/2019 by 3%
Status: Active


Stunning WATERFRONT property with unbelievable VIEWS nestled in Sandcastle Village! This cozy 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath with a loft/den is full of custom amenities. As you enter the home you're greeted with vaulted ceilings, bamboo floors and an unmatched view of the lake. You will find stainless steel appliances in the kitchen and extra storage throughout the home and garage. A new water heater was installed March 2019, the new upstairs AC unit installed August 2018, and the roof is warrantied through 2024. Relax in the backyard while barbecuing on the built-in grill and enjoying the natural scenery in this highly desired community.

Listed with American Realty Brokers


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,050,000 :: 1422 W COMMERCE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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5 beds, 5 baths
Home size: 6,298 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 04/12/19, Last Updated: 04/12/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5910662
Community: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Status: Active


Do you love skiing & lake life? Would you like to be able to ski, wakeboard, jet-ski or paddle board every day of the year? If so, we have the PERFECT LAKEFRONT PROPERTY for you! This 5 bed (plus loft) / 5 bath two-story home w/ NEXT GEN SUITE is in the private lake community of Play del Ray on a crystal blue lake w/ a 1/2 mile loop which allows all types of motorized boats & jet skis, as well as swimming. The backyard/dock has brand new, heat resistant deck (no burning feet!), boat dock w/ motorized lift, crank shade structure, fully organized ''gear wall'' w/ racks, 2 outside heated showers, water fountain, sandbox (with auto water filler) & natural gas line for your BBQ. The side storage area is HUGE & can fit multiple vehicles, off-road ''toys'' and/or a RV.

Listed with Rachael Richards Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$589,900 :: 826 S COPPER KEY Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,032 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,276 sq ft
Added: 11/15/18, Last Updated: 04/10/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5847112
Community: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS
Tract: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/2/2019 by 4%
Status: Active


Blending relaxation and sophistication to create the ideal home! Masterful design and luxury are uniquely embodied in this 5 bedroom 3.5 bath 2 story home with 4032 SF! Travertine walkway leads to the front door, and upon entering your eye catches the sweeping grand staircase ahead and the expansive open floor concept. The incredible island kitchen features dark cabinetry, plant shelving, pantry, white appliances, breakfast bar, and recessed lighting. This home includes its very own movie room, with a 110 inch projection screen, surround sound speaker system, custom Venetian plaster walls, LED lighting, and ramp access to each tiered level. Please see more remarks for more info.

Listed with Revelation Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$530,000 :: 1509 W SILVER KEYS Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,409 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,504 sq ft
Added: 03/15/19, Last Updated: 04/09/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5896779
Community: SHORES AT THE ISLANDS
Tract: SHORES AT THE ISLANDS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/9/2019 by 1%
Status: Active


Looking for a new place to call home? Then this fabulous 3 bed, 2.5 bath waterfront lot property located in Gilbert is just for you! This lavish home boasts desert landscaping, 2 car garage, vaulted ceilings, formal dining and living areas, plantation shutters, neutral paint throughout, and more! The elegant kitchen offers ample cabinetry, a pantry, granite countertops, tile backsplash, matching appliances, and a lovely island with a breakfast bar. Inside the grandiose master bedroom you will find a full bath with double sinks, separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. The wonderful backyard includes a covered patio, grassy area, built-in BBQ, and a sparkling blue pool! Homes this great never last long, don't waste any time and schedule a showing NOW!

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$967,123 :: 2764 E WILDHORSE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 4,292 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,503 sq ft
Added: 03/31/19, Last Updated: 03/31/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5904166
Community: SOMERSET PHASE 1
Tract: SOMERSET PHASE 1
Status: Active


Located in Gilbert's Newest Master Planned, Gated, Lake Community - Somerset at Belmont. Single level 4,292 Sq. Ft., 5 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, 4 car tandem garage. 12' ceilings in open great room, kitchen & dining room. Kitchen has large island, large prep kitchen and walk in pantry. Wolf 48'' Gas range and Hood with 11'' infrared griddle, 6 burners & dual ovens. 42'' maple cabinets with 18'' stacked cabinets and crown included. Kohler fixtures. Master bath has tub & walk-in shower, dual sinks and large closet. Large courtyard/covered patio. Rinnai tankless water heater, energy efficient EMC spray foam insulation and LED lighting. Under Construction. Best Location in Gilbert! Minutes from Shopping, Freeway access, Discovery Park - More Ready to move in MAY

Listed with The New Home Company


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$548,000 :: 432 S BAY SHORE Boulevard, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,521 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 05/24/18, Last Updated: 03/31/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5770856
Community: HARBOR POINT LOT 1-78 LAKE EASMT
Tract: HARBOR POINT LOT 1-78 LAKE EASMT
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/18/2019 by 2%
Status: Active


Beautiful remodel on the water in the Islands! New wood floors greet you as you open the door to the living and dining areas. It then flows into the kitchen & greatroom which overlook the sparkling pool, lake & grassy backyard. The kitchen has stainless appliances & plenty of counter space including a perfect area for a coffee bar! Upstairs is the master with a balcony with views of the lake. The master has a large ensuite bathroom and large walk in closet. The secondary bedrooms are also upstairs and are all a generous size. The second full bath is adjacent to the other bedrooms. The home also has a 3 car garage! New carpet, new wood floor, new lighting, new kitchen design, newly resurfaced pool, freshly painted inside and out and much more! This home is move in ready!

Listed with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$699,500 :: 1826 E Cascade Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,870 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,454 sq ft
Added: 11/30/18, Last Updated: 03/31/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5852673
Community: Val Vista Lakes Crystal Shores
Tract: Val Vista Lakes Crystal Shores
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/31/2019 by 3%
Status: Active


Come experience waterfront living at Val Vista Lakes. Conveniently located to Dana Park and U.S. 60. This three bedroom with den/3 bath home is completely updated with tile floors, plush carpeting and granite counter tops. Balcony off master suite overlooking the lake. Take in all the breathtaking views Val Vista Lakes has to offer. See video and 3D tour links and be sure to visit the clubhouse to see all that is included in your low HOA fees, including tennis complex, indoor racquetball courts, cardio and weight training facilities, junior Olympic swimming pool and spa, banquet and meeting rooms, waterfalls and a tropical lagoon swimming pool with a sandy beach. Drive through the neighborhood to see the many sports parks and bicycle paths.

Listed with Homesmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

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