Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

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Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

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$2,275,000 :: 1506 E TREASURE COVE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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6 beds, 6.5 baths
Home size: 5,706 sq ft
Lot Size: 17,860 sq ft
Added: 11/14/19, Last Updated: 11/14/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6005014
Community: WEST LAKE ESTATES LOT 1-40 TRACT A-C
Tract: WEST LAKE ESTATES LOT 1-40 TRACT A-C
Status: Active


Welcome to ''Crown Jewel'' of Val Vista Lakes!! Here you will find an absolutely STUNNING & UNIQUE 'One-Of-A-Kind' luxury architectural MASTERPIECE. Located on a lake in the highly prestigeous West Lake Estates and on one of the largest lots in Val Vista Lakes. Incredible waterfront views. In a gated community. A $14 million clubhouse, directly across the street is also included! Recently remodeled to perfection--NO expenses spared here! This contemporary estate is fully automated---control the huge sliding doors, blinds, kitchen cabinets, pool, thermostat, lights and much more, all at the touch of a button on your phone! This 'Smart Home' is designed to fully integrate with your smart phone. This one is only for the very discriminating buyer who wants it ALL and wont settle...

Listed with Cooper Premier Properties LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$798,000 :: 1358 W SANDPIPER Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 5 baths
Home size: 4,400 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 10/19/19, Last Updated: 11/10/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5994178
Community: TRES VISTAS LOT 1-26 PARCEL A-B
Tract: TRES VISTAS LOT 1-26 PARCEL A-B
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/10/2019 by 3%
Status: Active


Lake Living at it's best! Robert McIntyre, the gifted architect behind Tlaquepaque in Sedona,AZ, created this custom residence that sits on 114 feet of direct lakefront with spectacular views of the lake and Islands' fountain. An original Street of Dreams home, McIntyre designed this one of a kind property in Santa Barbara Mission Style with Spanish colonial influences such as soaring coffered ceilings, molded concrete columns, arched doorways, private patios and courtyard. This home has been fully remodeled including new flooring throughout, upgraded bathrooms, and a beautifully renovated kitchen complete with upscale appliances and an oversized propane stove/oven that is any chef's dream.

Listed with Congress Realty, Inc.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$839,900 :: 532 N ACACIA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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5 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 4,063 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,326 sq ft
Added: 09/16/19, Last Updated: 11/07/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5979288
Community: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/7/2019 by 1%
Status: Active


Incredible remodeled Waterfront Home w/covered patio, refreshing pool, spa, synthetic grass, private balcony/deck, and amazing views of the lake. Enjoy water skiing, jet skiing, and swimming! Dramatic soaring ceilings, sweeping stairway to second level, travertine floor, soothing interior palette, upgraded recessed lighting/ceiling fans, and Architectural details throughout. Decorative columns, arched windows, wet bar with tile, French Doors to patio, hardwood floor, and stacked stone fireplace. Gorgeous gourmet kitchen features x-large center island, granite counters, travertine backsplash, SS appliances, and plethora of upgraded wood cabinetry. Fantastic loft area with endless possibilities. New paver driveway, iron gates, and cement RV parking.

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$725,000 :: 2135 E CLIPPER Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,442 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 11/07/19, Last Updated: 11/07/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6001746
Community: Val Vista Lakes, Regatta at Val Vista Lakes
Tract: Val Vista Lakes, Regatta at Val Vista Lakes
Status: Active


Come see this Italian Mediterranean Jewel of the desert. Picture yourself waking up every morning looking out at the picturesque lake from your waterfront property nestled in a cul de sac in this beautiful sought after gated community of Val Vista Lakes. This fully custom home is a Mediterranean treasure with white Carrara marble floors, interior columns, coffer ceilings, granite counter tops, a large outdoor balcony, a lavish first floor master bed and bath and more. Want to listen to music while you take in this breath taking beauty enjoy the built in surround sound throughout the home and be memorized with the architecture throughout and hand painted murals of Italy.

Listed with Revelation Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$375,000 :: 617 S PARADISE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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2 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,156 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,921 sq ft
Added: 10/30/19, Last Updated: 11/04/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5998214
Community: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
Tract: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/4/2019 by 4%
Status: Active


Welcome to Paradise! You won't find a more clean, move in ready home in the highly sought after Islands community. Located in one of only two gated communities in the Islands, this beautiful home backs up to the most gorgeous waterfall in the neighborhood. Pride of ownership is apparent from the second you walk up to this stunning home boasting fresh paint just this year. When you open the door, you will just think WOW! The expansive living area with a built in bookcase and formal dining room can only be beaten by the incredible view as you gaze through the windows. Colorful shrubs and trees frame the tranquil, cascading waterfall just outside of your large windows. Step into the bright, updated kitchen with timeless granite countertops, modern lighting,

Listed with The Beshk Group, Inc.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$559,000 :: 4722 S GRISWOLD Street, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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6 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 3,753 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,890 sq ft
Added: 10/20/19, Last Updated: 10/20/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5994386
Community: LAYTON LAKES PARCEL 1 2ND AMD
Tract: LAYTON LAKES PARCEL 1 2ND AMD
Status: Active


Priced to sell!!! **WATERFRONT LOT WITH ONE OF THE BEST VIEWS IN ALL OF LAYTON LAKES!**MAIN LEVEL OF HOME HAS GUEST ROOM W/FULL BATH, FORMAL LIVING ROOM, FORMAL DINING, POWDER ROOM,GOURMET KITCHEN, PLUS A SEPARATE ASIAN KITCHEN; SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM AND BREAKFAST ROOM WITH STUNNING WATER VIEWS**UPSTAIRS IS HUGE MASTER WITH HIS AND HERS WALK-IN CLOSETS, TWO SECONDARY BRS W/ JACK N JILL BATH AND TEEN SUITE W/PRIVATE BATH **OUTSIDE IS AN ENTERTAINER'S DREAM**TOP OF LINE SUN SHADES THROUGH OUT OF HOUSE TO PROVIDE XIMUM PRIVACY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY** SO MUCH MORE, COME SEE IT TODAY!!!

Listed with Gold Trust Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$975,000 :: 1910 E WILLOW TREE Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 4,656 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,762 sq ft
Added: 10/18/19, Last Updated: 10/19/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5994028
Community: VAL VISTA LAKES - Lakeside
Tract: VAL VISTA LAKES - Lakeside
Status: Active


This gorgeous lakefront property is located in the highly sought after area of Val Vista Lakes in gated LAKESIDE! Boasting it's own boat dock,THESE HOMES ARE RARELY AVAIL. & SELL QUICKLY SO DON'T DELAY! Enter through the gorgeous wrought-iron front door to formal living & dining with 20 FT. soaring ceilings. UPGRADES FEATURING(4) NEW A/C UNITS IN 2016 & PLANTATION SHUTTERS throughout. Smart Home systems include NEST THERMOSTATS & SONOS SOUND THRUOUT HOME! The gourmet eat-in kitchen has an abundance of custom cabinets, granite counters, X-large center island, 2 BOSCH dishwashers, warming drawer, 48'' built-in fridge, dbl. wall ovens, microwave & custom elec. cook top are top of the line. 2 X-LG PANTRYS take care of extra storage. Take the popcorn into the THEATER with 100+ inch screen!

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,800,000 :: 193 N Ski Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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5 beds, 7 baths
Home size: 6,700 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,038 sq ft
Added: 10/14/19, Last Updated: 10/14/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5991650
Community: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT 1-20 TR A-H
Tract: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT 1-20 TR A-H
Status: Active


Beautiful Custom home on a private water ski lake. Water ski, tube, wakeboard, all out your back door. This home is the builders personal home. Custom in every way. Master Suite, plus office & guest bedroom all on the first floor. All bedrooms have their own full bathroom. Open great room with 21ft ceiling open wall of windows to the beautiful lake view. Granite counter tops, Top of the line stainless steel appliances, double ovens, warming draw, 6 burner Thermador Cook top, custom oak cabinets through out the home. Large center island with vegetable sink & eating area. Large covered patio with built in misters, built in BBQ & sink. Private boat dock with sink & small refrigerator. Large ski house to store tubes, wake boards, skis Large 5 car garage with built in cabinets, epoxy floor

Listed with The Hogan Group LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$755,000 :: 1455 W HEATHER Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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5 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 4,561 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 07/05/19, Last Updated: 09/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5944062
Community: PLAYA DEL REY ESTATES
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY ESTATES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/17/2019 by 2%
Status: Active


Location is Everything! Direct Lake Access with Rare Private Covered Boat Slip and Lift. Wakeboard, Jet Ski and Kayak from Your Own Backyard in this Private Recreational Lake Community. Interior boasts spacious, light-filled rooms, wood plank flooring and beautiful South facing lake views. Home has been updated to include newer appliances, A/C, interior and exterior paint, Lutron Caseta smart home lighting system and more. Massive master suite opens to 450 square foot deck overlooking the lake. Split floor plan with multiple living spaces offer convenient options for guests and multi-generational living-3 bedrooms and 2 full baths downstairs plus large home office. Add the ultimate media and game room if desired! Expand the outdoor living space w/lakeside dock if desired.

Listed with Platinum Living Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

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