Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

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Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$549,900 :: 579 N ACACIA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,098 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 03/26/20, Last Updated: 04/01/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6056686
Community: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Status: Active


Welcome home to your dream home on Acacia. The lovely waterfront Gilbert property has some fresh updates. Pull up and notice that the home is located directly across from the miniature golf course and clubhouse. Both the exterior and interior have been painted recently. Head inside and you will be able to see straight out to the waterway that feeds into the private lake. The massive living space is a combination of two living spaces, a formal dining space, and large eat in kitchen area. All the carpet in the home was just replaced this month. There is a elegant 2 sided gas fireplace that is shared between the two living spaces. Plantation shutters adorn the front windows of the house. One of the guest bedrooms has an en suite. All the rooms are spacious with ample sized closets.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Phoenix


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$825,000 :: 1446 W COMMERCE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,118 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,584 sq ft
Added: 01/23/20, Last Updated: 04/01/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6027408
Community: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
The price of this listing was last reduced on 2/20/2020 by 3%
Status: Active


This ONE OF A KIND property is located ON A PRIVATE LAKE in the popular PLAYA DEL REY ESTATES. What makes this home unique is you have the ability to JET SKI, BOAT, WATERSKI, WAKEBOARD and KAYAK in your own backyard. You will love this lot! North facing! Check out our video. This gorgeous gated community is only minutes from DOWNTOWN GILBERT with endless options for dining, shopping and playing. The sellers put a lot of thought, time, money and hard work in order to make this property a STANDOUT. This home was featured in 3 magazines for its breathtaking upgrades and updates. You will be WOWED the minute you enter into this stunning home. The view from every window will take your breath away. There are so many locations inside and out to relax, unwind, dine, play and/or entertain.

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$429,900 :: 601 S MARINA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,156 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,921 sq ft
Added: 03/11/20, Last Updated: 03/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6048952
Community: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
Tract: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/30/2020 by 4%
Status: Active


Exquisite 3bd/2.5bth sought after lake front home with loft in majestic Islands gated community. Multiple views of the lake from inside including front door entrance. Open floor plan with vaulted ceilings and rich window placement to add abundance of natural light. Freshly updated with new carpet,paint and fixtures. Modern eat-in kitchen with etched glass cabinets,tile floors,upgrade lights,granite counter tops,stainless steel appliance and counter top range. Family room boasts wood floors and gas fireplace. All bedrooms upstairs. Oversized master suite comes with walk-in closet and exit to 2nd floor balcony. Master bath includes separate tub/shower with 2 sink vanity. Loft upstairs includes built in bookshelves. HOA maintains landscape and exterior paint. Steps from community pool.

Listed with AZ Pro Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$839,899 :: 532 N ACACIA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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5 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 4,063 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,326 sq ft
Added: 09/16/19, Last Updated: 03/28/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5979288
Community: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/22/2020 by 0%
Status: Active


Incredible remodeled Waterfront Home w/covered patio, refreshing pool, spa, synthetic grass, private balcony/deck, and amazing views of the lake. Enjoy water skiing, jet skiing, and swimming! Dramatic soaring ceilings, sweeping stairway to second level, travertine floor, soothing interior palette, upgraded recessed lighting/ceiling fans, and Architectural details throughout. Decorative columns, arched windows, wet bar with tile, French Doors to patio, hardwood floor, and stacked stone fireplace. Gorgeous gourmet kitchen features x-large center island, granite counters, travertine backsplash, SS appliances, and plethora of upgraded wood cabinetry. Fantastic loft area with endless possibilities. New paver driveway, iron gates, and cement RV parking.

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$429,500 :: 1317 W WINDRIFT Way, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,850 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,921 sq ft
Added: 03/28/20, Last Updated: 03/28/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6058087
Community: SANDCASTLE VILLAGE LOT 1-31 TR A-D
Tract: SANDCASTLE VILLAGE LOT 1-31 TR A-D
Status: Active


Fantastic upgraded waterfront home in sought-after ''The Islands'' for sale! Soaring ceilings and beautifully custom-made veneer stone fireplace wow you right after you walk in. Elegant wood-like tiles throughout the 1st floor, and plantation shutters installed in the entire house. Modernly upgraded kitchen features chic tile backsplash, stainless appliances, granite slab counter top, and a nice water view from your kitchen window and dining room. Upstairs is where 3 bedrooms are, all with walk-in closets and an ideal layout splits master suite from other 2 guest bedrooms. A huge window in the master bedroom invites precious lake view into your master suite for you to wake up refreshingly every morning. This house has so much to offer that you will not want to miss it!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$574,900 :: 1426 W SILVER KEYS Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,740 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,633 sq ft
Added: 03/25/20, Last Updated: 03/25/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6056242
Community: The Islands
Tract: The Islands
Status: Active


This amazing LAKEFRONT property with stunning views, built-in swimming pool and covered cabana style ramada with sink and extra storage is a private PARADISE! Inside, you'll find a grand 2-story great room and dining area, family room with fireplace, eat-in kitchen + built-in desk. A BIG bedroom and full bath downstairs. Walk up the gorgeous custom staircase to a huge master suite with vaulted ceilings and a wall of windows + a door to the private deck overlooking the backyard! ALL bedrooms are EXTRA large! No carpet just real wood plank flooring and tile throughout! This large waterfront property located on a cul-de-sac is an entertainers dream! The Islands community is a wonderful and unique place to live! Walking paths with panoramic lake views - a true slice of paradise! WELCOME HOME!

Listed with Homelife Professionals


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$490,000 :: 1700 E LAKESIDE Drive #32, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,777 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 12/07/19, Last Updated: 03/22/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6012051
Community: Val Vista Lakes BRECKENRIDGE BAY LOT 1-65 TR A-I
Tract: Val Vista Lakes BRECKENRIDGE BAY LOT 1-65 TR A-I
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/22/2020 by 1%
Status: Active


RARE Waterfront townhome in Breckenridge Bay at Val Vista Lakes! Single level 2 bedroom, 2 bath low maintenance home is move - in ready. Gated subdivision makes this an ideal lock-n-leave for a winter home. Bright kitchen with skylights and bay windows, light cabinetry and porcelin tile. 5k appliance allowance. Formal dining room opens to the family room and Views of the lake. Master suite has private entrance to backyard. Large walk-in closet, dual vanity & seperate tub/shower. Secondary bedroom also has a large bay window and bathroom adjacent for guests privacy. Large private backyard with boat dock. Perfect northeasterly views of the mountains and wide open lake. Pavers cover the back to create an ideal outdoor space perfect for entertaining. Convenient to the famed Val Vista La

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$339,800 :: 695 S SAHUARO Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,672 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 02/26/20, Last Updated: 03/20/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6041975
Community: PARCEL 3 OF LAGO ESTANCIA LOT 31-90 TR A-E
Tract: PARCEL 3 OF LAGO ESTANCIA LOT 31-90 TR A-E
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/20/2020 by 3%
Status: Active


LAKE HOME in Beautiful LAGO ESTANCIA. Enjoy premium lot with surrounding lake views. A desirable lake community in the heart of GILBERT. You will enjoy the privacy of a corner lot with lake views in this beautiful park setting. Home features 3 bedroom/2 bath, OPEN FLOOR PLAN, large living room, formal dining, breakfast nook, natural light, neutral 20 x 20 tile, VAULTED CEILINGS and fans though out. The kitchen has a pantry, lots of cabinet space, matching appliances and a breakfast bar. Split floor plan features a large master suite, walk in closet, double sinks, garden tub and separate shower. The backyard is perfect for ENTERTAINING with a large extended patio and view fencing to enjoy the BEAUTIFUL LAKES. Home has new paint and is MOVE IN READY.

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$965,000 :: 2103 E CLIPPER Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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6 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 4,248 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,326 sq ft
Added: 03/19/20, Last Updated: 03/19/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6053139
Community: VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: VAL VISTA LAKES
Status: Active


Imagine yourself living on the water in the highly desirable, gated Regatta Community in fabulous Val Vista Lakes! This gorgeous remodeled home is in immaculate condition and ready to move in tomorrow! When you enter this home, through the custom iron and glass doorway, you are immediately greeted by amazing natural light, through the clerestory windows and soaring ceilings. Step through the full wall of glass doors out into your lakefront resort backyard, complete with designer pool and spa, extensive flagstone decking, low maintenance artificial turf, custom landscape and walkway lighting, complete with WIFI controlled lights and water feature. Enjoy the built in gas BBQ center, fire-pit, palm trees, bistro lights and your own dock to launch your canoes and kayaks....all included!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$445,000 :: 517 S MARINA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,003 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 03/13/20, Last Updated: 03/14/20
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6050491
Community: CORAL POINT TRACT A-K
Tract: CORAL POINT TRACT A-K
Status: Active


Lakefront Property! Upon entering, notice the soaring 26ft ceilings in your open and airy living room. This charming home has an updated kitchen with white cabinets, granite countertops, granite backsplash, and beautiful views. 2 large glass sliding doors that open onto a tile patio compete with 2 fire pits, a pond, an in ground spa and amazing views of the lake. Upstairs the large master suite includes his and hers closets, vaulted ceilings and a deck overlooking the lake. Don't miss out on the chance to live in your own ''Island'' paradise.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

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