Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

Arizona Monsoon Storms

Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$687,000 :: 1236 W EDGEWATER Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

Mls Icon

5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,242 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 02/22/19, Last Updated: 07/22/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5887260
Community: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS UNIT 4
Tract: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS UNIT 4
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/22/2019 by 1%
Status: Active


New Paint through the entire house! Seller is also providing a One Year Ultimate Warranty on the home and pool. Pre-purchased and will be transferred to the new owner! This home sits at the center of all five ''fingers'' that make up Lake 2! It's on the most coveted/primary lot on the water. This Beautiful, Resort-Style Living Home has views from every window. 4200 sq ft, 5 bedrooms and a built-out office/man cave with a separate entrance. The 3 car garage has fresh epoxy floors. The master closet is built-out with sophisticated shelving. Most ceilings boast crown molding. You name it - this house offers it!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$364,900 :: 1342 W CORAL REEF Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

Mls Icon

3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,289 sq ft
Lot Size: 1,743 sq ft
Added: 04/19/19, Last Updated: 07/19/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5914005
Community: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF LOT 1-53 TRACT A-G
Tract: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF LOT 1-53 TRACT A-G
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/19/2019 by 1%
Status: Active


Fantastic waterfront home with incredible views! This elegant 3 bed, 2.5 bath cul-de-sac home is located in the fabulous Islands Community. Relax and enjoy fishing from your backyard! Your gourmet kitchen boasts a functional island, breakfast bar, and lovely maple cabinets. Your living room has great water views and natural lighting. Upstairs, your master suite has a private balcony and a full master bath. Fabulous wood flooring and neutral carpeting in all the right places enhance the living spaces. Schedule your showing today!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$299,000 :: 620 S CATALINA Street, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

Mls Icon

2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,479 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 07/18/19, Last Updated: 07/18/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5953946
Community: LAGO ESTANCIA
Tract: LAGO ESTANCIA
Status: Active


LOCATION, LOCATION! 1 quick mile to super POPULAR DOWNTOWN GILBERT and in highly sought after LAKE COMMUNITY of Lago Estancia! LIGHT, BRIGHT, CLEAN & OPEN!! This beautiful WATERFRONT property has spacious 2 bedroom + DEN. Large Den has built in cabinets, french doors and was previously used as 3rd bedroom. Bright & open kitchen overlooks patio and beautiful lake views. Oversized great room has picture window with waterfront views as well! Large master suite has separate tub & shower & large walk in closet! Easy access to freeways, shopping & all of the amazing restaurants & night life that Downtown Gilbert has to offer! Welcome Home!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$797,000 :: 1455 W HEATHER Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

Mls Icon

7 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 4,561 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 07/05/19, Last Updated: 07/18/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5944062
Community: PLAYA DEL REY ESTATES
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY ESTATES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/18/2019 by 0%
Status: Active


Enjoy Lake Life Year Round! Waterski, Wakeboard, Jet Ski and Kayak from Your Own Backyard in this Private Recreational Lake Community. Updated interior boasts spacious, light-filled rooms, espresso wood plank flooring and beautiful lake views. Home includes new appliances, A/C, paint and more while leaving room for a new owner's personal touches. Massive master suite includes 450 square foot deck overlooking the lake. Multiple bedrooms and living spaces offer flexible options for guests and multi-generational living with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths downstairs. Plenty of room to expand by adding large waterfront deck and pool in the backyard and includes covered boat house (hydraulic lift available) for convenient lake access.

Listed with Platinum Living Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$525,000 :: 1141 W PENINSULA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

Mls Icon

3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,613 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 07/18/19, Last Updated: 07/18/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5953691
Community: WINDHAVEN LOT 1-65 TR A-C
Tract: WINDHAVEN LOT 1-65 TR A-C
Status: Active


SPECTACULAR LAKEFRONT LOCATION! Single level waterfront home in the coveted subdivision of The Islands! 3 Bedroom + Den, 3 car garage, pristine pool! Gorgeous views of the Lake in both directions. NEW Roof and AC! Newly refinished pool! Original owner. Circa 1988 interior, well cared for...just ready for any updating that is of your choice (priced accordingly, approx. -$50K below comparable others on the lake that have been updated) ).Let our photo gallery take you on a tour!Come check it out! When you buy a home in The Islands , you buy a Stay-cation Lifestyle! Come join us!

Listed with Revelation Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$645,000 :: 2020 E CATAMARAN Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

Mls Icon

5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,221 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,455 sq ft
Added: 06/27/19, Last Updated: 07/18/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5945535
Community: REGATTA AT VAL VISTA LAKES AMD LOT 1-108
Tract: REGATTA AT VAL VISTA LAKES AMD LOT 1-108
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/18/2019 by 1%
Status: Active


Beautifully updated Val Vista Lakes waterfront home in the gated Regatta community. This 5 bedroom, 3 full bath home on a cul-de sac street offers a gorgeous interior, updated throughout in 2017. Vaulted ceilings, wood look tile & spacious layout greets you as you walk in the front door. Living rm. features a fireplace & lots of natural light. Dining room w/ French doors to enjoy the additional private patio. Kitchen is open to the family rm, white cabinetry, granite counters, b-fast bar, lg walk-in pantry, stainless appliances & lake views! Mstr bedroom conveniently located downstairs w/ separate entrance to patio. Mstr bath has all the right finishes w/ a freestanding tub, walk-in shower & dual sink vanity. Second bedroom downstairs w/ full bath could be used as den/office or guest suite

Listed with DPR Realty LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$859,000 :: 1750 E COCO PALM Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,421 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,197 sq ft
Added: 07/17/19, Last Updated: 07/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5953415
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Status: Active


Single Level Custom 4 bed, 3 bath, waterfront home with spectacular panoramic lake views in gated community. Huge kitchen-abundant cabinetry plus pantry with wonderful view of heated negative-edge pool, spa, and lake. Open Great Room has 18'ceiling, sunken wet bar & fridge. Beautiful, professionally designed, stained-glass front entry door & Travertine tile entryway. Unique 3 Dolphin water feature at pool. Monitor kids pool activity with a security camera system. New redwood deck on the boat dock. New AC evaporators using 410A coolant. New water heater and water softener. Instant hot water loop and pumps. New exterior paint, carpet and marble tile in master bath and Jack & Jill bath. Oversized extended garage with built in cabinets. Approx 725 sf patio under roof.

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$418,900 :: 413 S LAKE MIRAGE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

Mls Icon

3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,946 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 05/24/19, Last Updated: 07/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5930656
Community: LAKE MIRAGE LOT 1-38 TR A-I
Tract: LAKE MIRAGE LOT 1-38 TR A-I
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/17/2019 by 0%
Status: Active


Must see this GORGEOUS, WATERFRONT home in the highly coveted Islands Community. This home was just recently updated including the flooring, Kitchen, Baths and More. Great eat-in kitchen with gorgeous views of the lake. Cozy up to the fireplace in the living room. Entertain your family and friends in this beautiful backyard. Fish or launch your boat from your own private dock. The Islands is a unique neighborhood that has a great sense of community. Enjoy the clubhouse and the many HOA / community sponsored events that take place through out the year. Come see this beautiful LAKEFRONT home and make it yours today! Lots of great memories to be made here!!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$599,000 :: 4722 S GRISWOLD Street, Gilbert AZ, 85297

Property Photo

Mls Icon

6 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 3,753 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,890 sq ft
Added: 07/16/19, Last Updated: 07/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5953142
Community: LAYTON LAKES PARCEL 1 2ND AMD
Tract: LAYTON LAKES PARCEL 1 2ND AMD
Status: Active


**WATERFRONT LOT WITH ONE OF THE BEST VIEWS IN ALL OF LAYTON LAKES!**MAIN LEVEL OF HOME HAS GUEST ROOM W/FULL BATH, FORMAL LIVING ROOM, FORMAL DINING, POWDER ROOM,GOURMET KITCHEN, PLUS A SEPARATE ASIAN KITCHEN; SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM AND BREAKFAST ROOM WITH STUNNING WATER VIEWS**UPSTAIRS IS HUGE MASTER WITH HIS AND HERS WALK-IN CLOSETS, TWO SECONDARY BRS W/ JACK N JILL BATH AND TEEN SUITE W/PRIVATE BATH **OUTSIDE IS AN ENTERTAINER'S DREAM**TOP OF LINE SUN SHADES THROUGH OUT OF HOUSE TO PROVIDE XIMUM PRIVACY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY** SO MUCH MORE, COME SEE IT TODAY!!!

Listed with Gold Trust Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$800,000 :: 2004 E FREEPORT Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

Mls Icon

5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 3,716 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,890 sq ft
Added: 05/23/19, Last Updated: 07/15/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5930240
Community: REGATTA AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: REGATTA AT VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/15/2019 by 3%
Status: Active


This is IT ! No need to remodel or update a thing in this professionally designed HOME. Beautiful Val Vista Lakes waterfront home in the REGATTA subdivision. Beauttiful kitchen with large bay breakfast room overlooking the pool & rear yard. Formal dining & living room with custom designed ceiling. Family room with electric fireplace (no messes to clean) travertine stone, and soaring ceilings. Large wall of glass sliding doors open out onto the covered patio, ideal for parties. Large master on main level with beautiful spa-like master bathroom. His & hers closets and vanities! Large room on main floor for office or 2nd bedroom! Upstairs are two XL bedrooms, 1 bath + ensuite bed & bathroom! Basement has a unique walk out patio off the game room. Large bedroom & full bath with huge storage

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *