FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

Arizona Monsoon Storms

Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$1,990,000 :: 193 N SKI Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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6 beds, 7 baths
Home size: 6,700 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,037 sq ft
Added: 09/20/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5662648
Community: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT
Tract: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT
Status: Active


Beautiful Custom home on a private water ski lake. Water ski, tube, wakeboard, all out your back door. This home is the builders personal home. Custom in every way. Master Suite, plus office & guest bedroom all on the first floor. All bedrooms have their own full bathroom. Open great room with 21ft ceiling open wall of windows to the beautiful lake view. Granite counter tops, Top of the line stainless steel appliances, double ovens, warming draw, 6 burner Thermador Cook top, custom oak cabinets through out the home. Large center island with vegetable sink & eating area. Large covered patio with built in misters, built in BBQ & sink. Private boat dock with sink & small refrigerator. Large ski house to store tubes, wake boards, skis Large 5 car garage with built in cabinets, epoxy floor

Listed with The Hogan Group LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$769,000 :: 1901 E CYPRESS TREE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 4,645 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,325 sq ft
Added: 07/05/17, Last Updated: 09/19/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5629011
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/26/2017 by 4%
Status: Active


PRICED more than $20K lower than appraised value to allow for more upgrades. WATERFRONT Home in Gated neighborhood of Val Vista Lakes with a fully finished Basement- 4,645 sqft, 5 bedrooms, 4 1/2 bathrooms, huge office with a separate entry. Second story features 2 of the bedrooms plus the Master Suite that offers an additional sitting/TV room and a workout room with a separate entry into the Master Bath. The main level of this beautiful home boasts the elegant Living Room with a 2-way, gas fireplace; the Kitchen with All New Stainless Appliances; the Breakfast Room; a closed in Patio Area with access to the Living Room and the Dining Area; a half bathroom; 1 Bedroom with a private 3/4 bathroom; and the Laundry Room. Fully Finished Basement has 1 bedroom, 3/4 Bathroom,

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$399,999 :: 1341 W WINDRIFT Way, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,017 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 09/15/17, Last Updated: 09/19/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5661079
Community: SANDCASTLE VILLAGE LOT 1-31 TR
Tract: SANDCASTLE VILLAGE LOT 1-31 TR
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/18/2017 by 3%
Status: Active


This North/ South exposure home has been fully updated and offers 3 bedrooms that all have a water view. 2.5 bathrooms that have granite and under-mount sinks. The entire first floor has new wood-look tile and a wood-burning fireplace with travertine stacked stone. The kitchen offers all new soft close cabinets including 2 lazy Susan's and all lower cabinets are drawers for ease of use. The kitchen has brand new granite countertops, subway tile backsplash and a garden window for growing fresh herbs. All brand new stainless steel appliances. This home offers a large pantry off the kitchen that measures 9 feet long by 5 feet deep. The laundry room has a beautiful granite countertop folding area and stainless steel hanging rack. Relax in your paved backyard or take a dip in the pool.

Listed with American Realty Brokers


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$725,000 :: 1849 E WILLOW TREE Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,445 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,196 sq ft
Added: 08/30/17, Last Updated: 09/18/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5653543
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Status: Active


WOW! This is it! ASTOUNDING VIEWS from almost every room- Kitchen, Family Room, Dining Room, Living Room and Master Bedroom! Enjoy Grand Cathedral Ceilings, gorgeous TRAVERTINE flooring, NEWER BRAZILIAN HARDWOOD floors,GAS FIREPLACE in Family Room, GOURMET KITCHEN with CUSTOM KITCHEN CABINETS, WINE RACK, built in OVEN, COOK TOP too! IMPECCABLY MAINTAINED! FIRST FLOOR MASTER BEDROOM with SITTING area. Master Bathroom has separate shower and JETTED TUB with double sinks. TWO Guest Bedroom downstairs with FULL Bathroom. You'll love the outdoor with INFINITY pool, Spa and Fire Pit too! Close to Route 60 & LOTS of STORES. SEE VIRTUAL TOUR IN PHOTO SECTION! ***OWNER WILLING TO SELL FURNISHING*** Enjoy an evening boat ride from your home on the lake to the Clubhouse!!Don't wait to enjoy the

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$269,900 :: 212 W VERANO Place, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,691 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,791 sq ft
Added: 08/04/17, Last Updated: 09/17/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5642060
Community: LAGO ESTANCIA PARCELS 11,12 &a
Tract: LAGO ESTANCIA PARCELS 11,12 &a
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/4/2017 by 2%
Status: Active


Come see this immaculate upgraded 3 BR home in the highly sought after Lago Estancia subdivision. This beautiful home has been redone from top to bottom. Upgrades include custom cabinetry throughout, granite counters in kitchen, media center, office, and both baths, custom walk-in shower in master, stainless steel appliances in kitchen, separate office with built in desk and cabinetry, dual pane windows, 3/4 '' hardwood and tile floors, custom paint, upgraded lighting, ceiling fans and plumbing fixtures throughout, water softener, dual attic access and lots of cabinetry in garage w/ insulated door. Outside you have an entertainers dream with a front courtyard, covered back patio w/ ceiling fan, lake views, built-in BBQ island,easy care landscaping, and a large heated hot tub with gazebo.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$525,000 :: 2003 E CATAMARAN Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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3 beds, 3.25 baths
Home size: 2,970 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,196 sq ft
Added: 09/16/17, Last Updated: 09/16/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5661262
Community: REGATTA AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: REGATTA AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Status: Active


Beautiful custom home with views down the lake ** Casita/office/guest room with bathroom and separate entrance ** Master bedroom downstairs ** Loft upstairs with beautiful lake views ** So many windows and walls of glass makes this home very bright ** Granite island kitchen with loads of cabinets abd eating area ** Large walk in closet in master suite ** Val Vista Lakes community enjoys 10 tennis courts, including pickelball, indoor racquetball courts, heated pool, heated spa, lagoon beach, kayaks and pedal boats for homeowners to use, workout room, cardio room, many events to enjoy and so much more ** There are four lakes for your boating and fishing pleasure ** This beautiful home is ready for your client to move in

Listed with Penfield Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$975,000 :: 1125 N DATE PALM Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 4,458 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,068 sq ft
Added: 09/14/17, Last Updated: 09/14/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5660217
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Status: Active


Absolutely stunning semi-custom home in the Lakeside neighborhood in Val Vista Lakes where homes are going up to over $250/sqft. This completely remodeled home features the absolute best lake views that Val Vista Lakes has to offer, a professionally designed putting and pitching green, top of the line artificial grass backyard, stunning 12 person spa and pebble sheen pool that is wrapped with Marbella stone on the pool deck, built in gas and charcoal grills, amazing outdoor gas fire pit that overlooks the lake and pop-out tv for enjoying a game while sitting in the pool or on the patio. Inside you will fine a custom gourmet kitchen with double edge eco-quartz countertops, travertine tile and hardwood floors, plantation shutters and tinted and reflective windows for privacy and efficiency.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$239,900 :: 1678 E BRIDGEPORT Parkway, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,609 sq ft
Lot Size: 871 sq ft
Added: 09/12/17, Last Updated: 09/12/17
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5659124
Community: VAL VISTA CLASSIC PARCEL 1 CON
Tract: VAL VISTA CLASSIC PARCEL 1 CON
Status: Active


WATER FRONT 3 bedroom 2.5 bath property located in Gilbert! This stunning well kept home offers wood flooring, ceiling fans, neutral paint, and great views! Your show kitchen features granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, and beautiful cabinets with plenty of storage space! Your laundry is located on the main floor with a linen closet. Your second floor is your family room, half bath, and kitchen, with the 3rd floor occupying your bedrooms and additional bathrooms. You are in a great community and great location! Close to the 202 freeway, San Tan Village Mall & Marketplace, TONS of shopping and restaurants all within a VERY SHORT drive or walk!! Stop by and view today!**Furniture available on a separate bill of sale.

Listed with Canam Realty Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$550,000 :: 1233 W COVE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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5 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,209 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 08/25/17, Last Updated: 09/09/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5651904
Community: HARBOR POINT LOT 1-78 LAKE EAS
Tract: HARBOR POINT LOT 1-78 LAKE EAS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/25/2017 by 4%
Status: Active


An Islands Paradise! A two story waterfront home; 2 docks provide easy access to the lake. Boat included at no cost/value and ''as-is''. Original owner had this home built in 1990. Deck off of an upper bedroom. Family room with gas fireplace is adjacent to the kitchen. Granite counters and backsplashes; all stainless steel appliances, 4 under-counter stools at the spacious breakfast bar. Tile floors in entire living, dining, kitchen and family room area. Carpet in the remainder of the home. Built in gas BBQ.

Listed with Erickson Realty Group L.L.C.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$890,000 :: 1414 E CORAL COVE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 4,055 sq ft
Lot Size: 15,245 sq ft
Added: 04/13/17, Last Updated: 09/09/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5590232
Community: WEST LAKE ESTATES LOT 1-40 TRA
Tract: WEST LAKE ESTATES LOT 1-40 TRA
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/13/2017 by 5%
Status: Active


Exquisite highly desirable single level custom waterfront home in West Lake Estates*Beautiful entrance with gorgeous medallion flooring*Formal dining and living room*Coffered ceilings*Home office with plantation shutters*Large master suite with separate outdoor exit*2 sided gas fireplace to updated master bathroom with marble countertops, jetted tub, stone shower and huge master closet*Large custom kitchen with dual ovens, dual dishwashers, kitchen island, pull out shelves and walk in pantry*family room with stone floor to ceiling fireplace and peaceful views of the lake*Split floor*

Listed with Elite Desert Realty, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!