FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

Arizona Monsoon Storms

Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$329,000 :: 1450 W CORAL REEF Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.75 baths
Home size: 2,289 sq ft
Lot Size: 2,178 sq ft
Added: 11/22/17, Last Updated: 11/22/17
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5691047
Community: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF
Tract: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF
Status: Active


Stunning Waterfront Townhome in the coveted Gilbert Islands. This 2289 sq. ft., 3 bed, 2.75 bath with an office and loft is the perfect lock and leave low maintenance home! Well-appointed with 10 ft ceilings, travertine tile, fresh two-tone paint and an elegant wrought iron circular staircase. Kitchen features 42 inch Solid Maple Cabinets, Stainless Steel appliances, Granite Counters, Kitchen Island and Breakfast Bar. Updated bathrooms with stone vanities and surrounds. Master features lakefront balcony, walk-in closet, separate shower and garden tub. Lots of custom features and a community pool! Come see for yourself.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$754,000 :: 1901 E CYPRESS TREE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 4,645 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,325 sq ft
Added: 07/05/17, Last Updated: 11/22/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5629011
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Status: Active


WATERFRONT, Gated neighborhood of Val Vista Lakes PRICED more than $30K lower than appraised value to allow for more upgrades.NEW PICS Soon.All wood,front door&cabinets refinished darker.Garage Doors painted.Finished Basement-4,645sqft, 5 bedrooms, 4 1/2 bathrooms, huge office w/ separate entry.2nd story features 2 bedrooms plus a Master Suite that offers an additional sitting/TV room & a workout room with a separate entry into the Master Bath.The main level of this beautiful home boasts the elegant Living Room with a 2-way, gas fireplace; the Kitchen with All New Stainless Appliances; the Breakfast Room;a closed in Patio Area with access to the Living Room and the Dining Area;a half bathroom;1 Bedroom with a private 3/4 bathroom;& the Laundry Room.Finished Basement has 1 bedroom, 3/4 Bathroom

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$950,000 :: 1125 N DATE PALM Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 4,458 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,068 sq ft
Added: 09/14/17, Last Updated: 11/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5660217
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/15/2017 by 3%
Status: Active


Absolutely stunning semi-custom home in the Lakeside neighborhood in Val Vista Lakes where homes are going up to over $250/sqft. This completely remodeled home features the absolute best lake views that Val Vista Lakes has to offer, a professionally designed putting and pitching green, top of the line artificial grass backyard, stunning 12 person spa and pebble sheen pool that is wrapped with Marbella stone on the pool deck, built in gas and charcoal grills, amazing outdoor gas fire pit that overlooks the lake and pop-out tv for enjoying a game while sitting in the pool or on the patio. Inside you will fine a custom gourmet kitchen with double edge eco-quartz countertops, travertine tile and hardwood floors, plantation shutters and tinted and reflective windows for privacy and efficiency.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$360,000 :: 244 N CORRINE Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,005 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,018 sq ft
Added: 10/13/17, Last Updated: 11/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5673864
Community: STONEBRIDGE LAKES ESTATES UNIT
Tract: STONEBRIDGE LAKES ESTATES UNIT
Status: Active


This home is a rare find in the beautiful lake community of Stonebridge Lakes Estates. There is an amazing lake view with a meandering brick walkway down to the lake. Completing the backyard is lush landscaping including fruit trees and an extended 33 X 14 covered brick patio. Ceramic tile entry way leads to formal living and dining area complete with custom shutters. Kitchen includes bay window eating area, walk-in pantry, butcher block island, smooth top stove with microwave and Kitchen Aid refrigerator. Family room adjoins kitchen & has a corner fireplace, French doors lead to the patio from the family room & master bedroom. Awesome location is close to downtown Gilbert with all the fantastic restaurants & outside patio seating. Easy access to freeways, shopping and schools.

Listed with RE/MAX Alliance Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$525,000 :: 2003 E CATAMARAN Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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3 beds, 3.25 baths
Home size: 2,970 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,196 sq ft
Added: 09/16/17, Last Updated: 11/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5661262
Community: REGATTA AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: REGATTA AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Status: Active


Beautiful custom home with views down the lake ** Casita/office/guest room with bathroom and separate entrance ** Master bedroom downstairs ** Loft upstairs with beautiful lake views ** So many windows and walls of glass makes this home very bright ** Granite island kitchen with loads of cabinets abd eating area ** Large walk in closet in master suite ** Val Vista Lakes community enjoys 10 tennis courts, including pickelball, indoor racquetball courts, heated pool, heated spa, lagoon beach, kayaks and pedal boats for homeowners to use, workout room, cardio room, many events to enjoy and so much more ** There are four lakes for your boating and fishing pleasure ** This beautiful home is ready for your client to move in

Listed with Penfield Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$512,000 :: 1145 W NAUTILUS Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,104 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,018 sq ft
Added: 11/17/17, Last Updated: 11/17/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5689401
Community: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS L
Tract: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS L
Status: Active


Spectacular Views from 0ver 100 feet of Shoreline on this Remodeled Single level 4 bedroom Adjacent to greenbelt. Wonderful wood floors throughout most of the home with plenty of upgrades in this wide open floor plan, including granite counter 3 car garage that has a roll up door that exits into the side and back yard.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$580,000 :: 480 N MONDEL Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,552 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,325 sq ft
Added: 10/06/17, Last Updated: 11/15/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5670414
Community: PLAYA DEL REY
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/15/2017 by 1%
Status: Active


ENJOY RESORT STYLE LIVING IN THIS BEAUTIFULLY APPOINTED PLAYA DEL RAY WATERFRONT HOME. AN ENTERTAINERS DREAM! OPEN THE DOOR TO SOARING VAULTED CEILINGS INTO THE FORMAL LIVING AND DINING AREA. ENJOY THE LAKE VIEW FROM HERE OR HEAD STRAIGHT TO THE BACKYARD. SOAK IN THE HEATED SPA OR TAKE A DIVE INTO THE PEBBLE TECH POOL. THE MASTER SUITE IS CONVENIENTLY LOCATED ON THE FIRST FLOOR AND BOASTS AN EXQUISITELY REMODELED MASTER BATH WITH A WALK IN TILE SHOWER, SOAKING TUB AND LARGE DUAL VANITY. YOUR KIDS OR GUESTS WILL ALSO ENOJOY A REMODELED BATH UPSTAIRS WITH TWO BEDROOMS, A LOFT AND SPECTACULAR VIEW FROM THE BALCONY. THE COMMUNITY AMENITIES ARE ENDLESS. THE LAKE ALLOWS SKIING, BOATING, AND SO MUCH MORE. VISIT THE CLUB HOUSE, PUTT PUTT GOLF COURSE OR VENTURE VIA PRIVATE ACCESS TO MCQUEEN PARK.

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$955,900 :: 1410 E CORAL COVE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 5,190 sq ft
Lot Size: 15,681 sq ft
Added: 01/28/17, Last Updated: 11/15/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5553316
Community: WEST LAKE ESTATES LOT 1-40 TRA
Tract: WEST LAKE ESTATES LOT 1-40 TRA
The price of this listing was last reduced on 5/13/2017 by 3%
Status: Active


Your Grand Mediterranean Estate on the water! Imported Inlaid Italian Marble provides a stunning entry that takes your breath away. Dramatic architectural features, & superior new finishes abound throughout the home! Main level features a guest bedroom suite, & walk-in closet. Also, there is grand library/office. The lavish Master Suite has beautiful hardwood floors, sitting area, dual-sided fireplace, three large walk-in closets & picture perfect lake views. The views never stop, the lake can be seen from the elegant living, dining room, large kitchen & family room. Upstairs, are 2 large bedroom suites; one with private bath and walk-in closet. Sit fireside next to the heated pool & spa & entertain on your outdoor covered patio. And so much more! This home is a must see!

Listed with TreeHouse Realty, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$349,500 :: 1237 E ARTESIAN Way, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,521 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,098 sq ft
Added: 11/08/17, Last Updated: 11/15/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5684838
Community: HARBOR VIEW AT WIND DRIFT
Tract: HARBOR VIEW AT WIND DRIFT
Status: Active


One of Gilbert's Highly-Coveted Lake Front properties! Gorgeous 3 Bdrm/2 Bath 1521 sq ft single-level home right on the Wind Drift lake. Feel free to boat and fish! The resort-style backyard is complete w/ Pebbletec pool, waterfall, new redwood dock, covered patio and misting system. Interior upgrades include Silestone countertops, beautiful cherry wood cabinets, ceramic tile floors, double pane windows, new security system, and new water softener and reverse osmosis. Enjoy the gas fireplace and formal living and dining areas. Located in the Gilbert High school district and only a few minutes from Downtown Gilbert's many restaurants and entertainment venues. BONUS ALERT: Low HOA in Gilbert!

Listed with Re/Max Platinum Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,990,000 :: 193 N SKI Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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6 beds, 7 baths
Home size: 6,700 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,037 sq ft
Added: 09/20/17, Last Updated: 11/15/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5662648
Community: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT
Tract: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT
Status: Active


Beautiful Custom home on a private water ski lake. Water ski, tube, wakeboard, all out your back door. This home is the builders personal home. Custom in every way. Master Suite, plus office & guest bedroom all on the first floor. All bedrooms have their own full bathroom. Open great room with 21ft ceiling open wall of windows to the beautiful lake view. Granite counter tops, Top of the line stainless steel appliances, double ovens, warming draw, 6 burner Thermador Cook top, custom oak cabinets through out the home. Large center island with vegetable sink & eating area. Large covered patio with built in misters, built in BBQ & sink. Private boat dock with sink & small refrigerator. Large ski house to store tubes, wake boards, skis Large 5 car garage with built in cabinets, epoxy floor

Listed with The Hogan Group LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!