Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

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Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$725,000 :: 2020 E FREEPORT Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,062 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,454 sq ft
Added: 06/25/18, Last Updated: 10/18/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5785216
Community: Regatta at Val Vista Lakes
Tract: Regatta at Val Vista Lakes
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/18/2018 by 3%
Status: Active


Paver walk way leads to this beautiful waterfront home, completely remodeled and ready ** Enter to spacious living room and dining room ** Fireplace in family room with surround sound ** Gourmet kitchen with all new stainless steel appliances, granite counter tops, loads of storage and refrigerator will stay ** Master suite is kingsize with jacuzzi tub and separate shower, double sinks, gas fireplace and balcony with marble floors overlooking yard ** Large yard with pebble sheen swimming pool, separate jacuzzi, pomegranate, orange and lemon trees, loads of grassy play area, and boat dock ** There is so much to mention here and a few extras include shutters throughout, marble floors throughout, stone covered fireplaces and pillars outside, motorized chandelier can be lowered for cleaning,

Listed with Penfield Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$360,000 :: 409 S LAKE MIRAGE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,744 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 09/21/18, Last Updated: 10/18/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5823538
Community: LAKE MIRAGE LOT 1-38 TR A-I
Tract: LAKE MIRAGE LOT 1-38 TR A-I
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/6/2018 by 1%
Status: Active


This immaculate move in ready home is located in The Islands, one of Gilbert's most highly desirable communities! This home features beautiful wood flooring and a neutral grey color pallet in the main living space making it perfect for your finishing touches. The kitchen features granite counter tops, gorgeous tile backsplash and stainless-steel appliances. The master bathroom features a claw foot soaking tub and separate walk-in shower. Your backyard oasis is perfect for entertaining with a large covered patio, gorgeous lake views, and lush green mature landscaping, built in planters, and landscape lighting. Do not miss this one!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Phoenix


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$399,500 :: 1221 N KINGSTON Street, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,732 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 07/05/18, Last Updated: 10/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5789175
Community: EL DORADO LAKES GOLF COMMUNITY
Tract: EL DORADO LAKES GOLF COMMUNITY
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/3/2018 by 1%
Status: Active


El Dorado Lakes on Golf Course w/Lake View! 4+Den w/3 full baths boasts numerous upgrades. Gourmet kitchen upgraded w/large island, beautiful granite & stainless appliances. Formal living&dining rm provide space for special events.Experience a more casual evening in the family rm w/a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Wind down & escape upstairs to a cozy sitting rm off the master w/vaulted ceilings or pamper yourself in the upgraded master bath w/new tiled shower & Moen faucets. Outdoor living at its best- huge flagstone patio & balcony off master that overlooks a sparkling PebbleTec play pool, beautiful rock waterfall, #12 tee-box, a water feature & views of the Superstitions Mtns for year-round entertainment, fun & relaxation. Price incorporates a discount for carpet & future upgrades. ONLY

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$719,900 :: 1817 E Willow Tree Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,970 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,196 sq ft
Added: 09/21/18, Last Updated: 10/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5823607
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/16/2018 by 1%
Status: Active


Million Dollar Views for a fraction of the price! Amazing Lakefront property on the market for first time in 8 years. Newly renovated 3000 sqft. 4 bedroom w/Office & Formal Dining Room. Split floor plan, 3-car garage w/Spa inspired Block Glass Walk-in Shower in Master Suite shows like a model. Marble Tile, Wood Floors & Plantation Shutters on every window! Open concept Great Room/Kitchen overlooks extraordinary lake views. Stainless Steel Appliances. Resort style negative edge swimming pool on 12,000 sqft premium cul-de-sac lake lot. Clubhouse features 8-court championship tennis complex, indoor racquetball courts, cardio & weight training facilities, Jr Olympic swimming pool, spa, banquet/meeting rooms, waterfalls, tropical lagoon swimming pool w/sandy beach. WOW!! This home won't last!!

Listed with DPR Realty LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$775,000 :: 1834 E Coral Tree Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,085 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,939 sq ft
Added: 10/10/18, Last Updated: 10/10/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5831466
Community: Val Vista Lakes
Tract: Val Vista Lakes
Status: Active


Single story home nestled behind the Lakeside gates in Val Vista Lakes. Situated on a 13,500+ sq ft lot with a preferred North / South exposure. Located on the highly desirable main lake for long boat rides! Floor plan is elegant and ideal for entertaining yet comfortable for everyday living. Upon entering the home you are immediately drawn to the lake views providing that WOW factor! Formal living room and dining room have large windows and French doors providing natural abundant light. Kitchen opens up nicely to the family room! Impressive views of the lake can be seen from the entire back of the home. Outdoor living is abundant here! Covered patio over looks the negative edge pool and spa, built in barbecue, grassy areas, large side yards, mature citrus trees and boat dock! Split floor

Listed with DPR Realty LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,099,000 :: 285 N Ski Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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5 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 3,478 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,037 sq ft
Added: 08/29/18, Last Updated: 10/05/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5813254
Community: Crystal Point Estates
Tract: Crystal Point Estates
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/5/2018 by 4%
Status: Active


Beautiful Custom Home in sought after Crystal Point Estates Gated Community, Gilbert Az. Arizona Living Your Way!! If you are looking for stunning Arizona Lakeviews and a Waterfront Lifestyle you can enjoy every single day,this is the Community for you!! Boating on the Lake includes a regulation slalom course, jump ramp and trick skiing, tubing, paddle boating & more.This beautiful property offers 5 BR, 4 BA, 3478sf,almost a half acre lot at 19,985sqft and approx. 164 feet of waterfront. Formal Living Room touts stunning views upon entry into this lovely property. Great Room is Open to spacious kitchen with granite counter tops, custom maple cabinets, breakfast bar, eat in kitchen area with bay window for enjoying brunch with a view.Great room touts lots of space, Cantera fireplace,

Listed with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$679,000 :: 1825 E CYPRESS TREE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,493 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,939 sq ft
Added: 08/12/18, Last Updated: 09/28/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5806089
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/28/2018 by 3%
Status: Active


A rare find, this one-story home is on the big lake at Val Vista Lakes Community with a boat to ride to the Clubhouse which features a sandy beach pool and a heated Jr. Olympia swimming pool with lap lanes. Tennis, racquet ball, pickle ball, weight & cardio rooms for a great workout. Private locker rooms with showers. The home is on a quiet cul-de-sac and walking distance to clubhouse, elementary school & playground. 4 spacious bedrooms, walk-in closets. Baths have double sinks, master has separate shower and soak tub. 2nd bath as full-size tub and shower with privacy door. A rare opportunity, a one story on open water, the VACANT lot across the lake from this home recently sold for $450,000, a new home is under construction. Double boat dock with seating area.

Listed with USELLSMART Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$700,000 :: 1910 E CORAL TREE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,686 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,939 sq ft
Added: 07/13/18, Last Updated: 09/21/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5793500
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/21/2018 by 3%
Status: Active


Must see this beautiful single level custom waterfront home on a very large lot ** This home is on the ''big'' lake in the much sought after gated Lakeside community ** Enter to spacious living room and dining room ** Island kitchen features granite counters, built in gas stove, built in oven and microwave, plus walk in pantry ** Cabinets all the way around the island plus separate breakfast area ** Lake views from almost every room ** Jacuzzi tub and walk in closet in master suite ** Huge yard with swimming pool and jacuzzi, loads of grass area plus huge side yards ** Fabulous view down the lake ** This home was built with sheer walls all the way around the house and there are no load bearing walls inside ** Plank travertine floors ** See supplement below for Val Vista Lakes amenities

Listed with Penfield Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$600,000 :: 1442 W EMERALD KEY Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 2.75 baths
Home size: 3,470 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 09/20/18, Last Updated: 09/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5822966
Community: THE ISLANDS
Tract: THE ISLANDS
Status: Active


Stunning waterfront home in the beautiful Islands community of Gilbert. Located in a cul-de-sac, this large family home sits ideally on the waters edge with stunning views. Enjoy all of lakes in the Islands community for fishing, boating, rowing, etc. This home is ready for your custom final touches- create your masterpiece with this spacious floorplan. 4 bedrooms, 3 baths and 3 car garage, and gorgeous resort backyard and pool. This home is just steps away from the A+ school of excellence-Islands Elementary, and minutes to award winning downtown Gilbert restaurants. Come see this home for yourself in person and you will be impressed, these rare beauties on the water don't come along often.

Listed with RE/MAX Alliance Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$724,900 :: 2111 E CLIPPER Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,025 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,018 sq ft
Added: 09/17/18, Last Updated: 09/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5821409
Community: Regatta at Val Vista Lakes
Tract: Regatta at Val Vista Lakes
Status: Active


Exquisite, Lake Front home in The gated community of The Regatta in Val Vista Lakes, The grand staircase greets you as you enter the large cast front door, The Kitchen boasts Granite, stainless, breakfast nook, breakfast bar & an oversized walk-in pantry, the kitchen overlooks a large great room, perfect for entertaining & family, The beautiful backyard speaks for itself, it's a masterpiece with a gazebo, firepit, grassy area, sparkling pool with water feature & of course an incredible view of the lake with your own dock, the Luxurious Master Suite is a sanctuary with tile shower & surrounds & marble vanities, the private upstairs balcony has a stunning view of the lake, it's perfect for that morning cup of coffee or just relaxing & reading,

Listed with United Brokers Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

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