Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

Arizona Monsoon Storms

Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$336,450 :: 1326 W CLEAR SPRING Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,016 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,920 sq ft
Added: 12/11/18, Last Updated: 02/10/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5856478
Community: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
Tract: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
The price of this listing was last reduced on 2/10/2019 by 0%
Status: Active


WATERFRONT LAKEFRONT LOT in a GATED COMMUNITY with a gorgeous backyard that backs up to the water. Sit out on the balcony and watch the beautiful waterfall. Home has bay windows in the dining room and kitchen. Awesome views from the dining room. Home has Two Zone Air Conditioners. Masterbath has separate Shower and Tub. Home flows smoothly and has great views. Also you can put your boat in the big lake and take it up to the community pool and spa.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$475,000 :: 6788 S BIRDIE Way, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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5 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,341 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 02/08/19, Last Updated: 02/08/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5880586
Community: SEVILLE PARCEL 17
Tract: SEVILLE PARCEL 17
Status: Active


This picturesque custom 5 bedroom/2.5 bath home situated on a Golf Course lot with Lake Views is ready for you! Come and relax in this resort style backyard that includes low maintenance landscaping, synthetic grass, and your own private gas heated pool and spa. At night huddle around the outdoor custom fireplace with friends and family or under the covered patio enjoying the open golf course acreage the lot provides before retiring for the night. You will enjoy the split master floor plan and separate exit out to your own oasis. Your guests will enjoy their own ''Casita'' with separate entrance and bath along with the many amenities that the community has to offer. Don't miss out on this updated and meticulously maintained home in the prestigious golf course community of Seville

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$675,000 :: 1808 E CASCADE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,501 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,503 sq ft
Added: 02/07/19, Last Updated: 02/07/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5880034
Community: CRYSTAL SHORES AMD LOT 1-82 TR A-I
Tract: CRYSTAL SHORES AMD LOT 1-82 TR A-I
Status: Active


WOW! AWESOME HOME! Welcome to this remarkable, waterfront Gilbert home located in the highly desirable Val Vista Lakes community! This gorgeous home offers over $60,000 in upgrades for you and your guests to enjoy. The beautiful, open kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, high end granite countertops, dark beechwood cabinets, a wine cooler and a huge kitchen island with plenty of counter space for meal prep or entertaining. Stay warm by the cozy fireplace in the family room on those chilly Arizona nights and enjoy the 180 degree views of the lake! This open and split floor concept includes cherry hardwood floors throughout the main living spaces and the entire home has been recently painted inside and out.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$349,900 :: 621 S PARADISE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,797 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 12/08/18, Last Updated: 02/04/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5855616
Community: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
Tract: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 76-101
Status: Active


Back on the market! This is living at it best!! Move in ready and totally furnished (optional) beautiful, light, bright, and open waterfront home in the highly desirable, gated community of The Falls in the Islands.Home has a spacious eat in kitchen and a family room that overlooks the lagoon and peaceful sounds of the cascading waterfalls. Large master bedroom has a deck that provides amazing sunriise views and overlooks the water features.Home is just minutes away from the large, sparkling community pool and heated spa which overlook the main lake. The Islands community features a beautiful entry fountain, community center, large parks, boating, fishing and much more...HOA covers street maintenance, homes painted every 7 years, and even includes both front and rear landscaping

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$799,000 :: 1717 E Coco Palm Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 4,052 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,196 sq ft
Added: 02/01/19, Last Updated: 02/01/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5876441
Community: VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: VAL VISTA LAKES
Status: Active


Welcome to your DREAM HOME with a basement! Gorgeous 5 bed / 4 bath, 3 car extended depth garage and side double gate!! This lakeside home in the HIGHLY DESIRABLE Val Vista Lakes, GATED ''Lakeside'' community. New exterior and interior paint, carpet, most of the interior hardware and light fixtures and many other various trim work!!! Home features a wide open floor plan, easy clean-up tile flooring and beautiful finishes throughout. Outstanding chef's kitchen fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and tons of wood cabinet storage. LARGE living room has stunning wood flooring, custom stone fireplace, built-in entertainment center and double doors to backyard access. Backyard has grassy area, nice patio areas and a custom boat dock!!! This is a stunning home!!

Listed with Results Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$749,000 :: 1834 E Coral Tree Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,085 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,939 sq ft
Added: 10/10/18, Last Updated: 01/29/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5831466
Community: Val Vista Lakes
Tract: Val Vista Lakes
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/29/2019 by 1%
Status: Active


Single story home nestled behind the Lakeside gates in Val Vista Lakes. Situated on a 13,500+ sq ft lot with a preferred North / South exposure. Located on the highly desirable main lake for long boat rides! Floor plan is elegant and ideal for entertaining yet comfortable for everyday living. Upon entering the home you are immediately drawn to the lake views providing that WOW factor! Formal living room and dining room have large windows and French doors providing natural abundant light. Kitchen opens up nicely to the family room! Impressive views of the lake can be seen from the entire back of the home. Outdoor living is abundant here! Covered patio over looks the negative edge pool and spa, built in barbecue, grassy areas, large side yards, mature citrus trees and boat dock! Split floor

Listed with DPR Realty LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,750,000 :: 378 N SHORE Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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6 beds, 6 baths
Home size: 7,120 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,037 sq ft
Added: 11/01/18, Last Updated: 01/29/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5840948
Community: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT 1-20 TR A-H
Tract: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT 1-20 TR A-H
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/29/2019 by 5%
Status: Active


Exquisite Custom Home on Private water ski lake! Water ski, wake board, tubing or paddle board from you own back yard! 6 BR,4 Full & 2 half Baths. Luxury custom home featuring 164' of Waterfront living. OWNED SOLAR SYSTEM WITH CURRENT ELECTRIC AT ONLY $225/MONTH! Fabulous formal living room w/wall of windows w/lake views greats you upon entry. Exquisite master suite on main level w/sitting room & fireplace. Huge master bath w/his & hers vanities, jetted tub, huge walk in snail shower, & a large custom built closet, every ladies dream! 3 other bedrooms and 2 1/2 baths on main level.Chef's kitchen w/new top of the line stainless steel appliances, double ovens, induction cook top, subzero refrigerator, beverage refrigerator drawers,

Listed with Revelation Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$865,000 :: 1414 E CORAL COVE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 4,055 sq ft
Lot Size: 15,245 sq ft
Added: 01/26/19, Last Updated: 01/26/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5873941
Community: WEST LAKE ESTATES, Val Vista Lakes
Tract: WEST LAKE ESTATES, Val Vista Lakes
Status: Active


Prestigious Executive Single Level in Val Vista Lakes gated West Lake Estates! Updated Waterfront Custom has 4 bedrooms Plus an Office off Foyer & 4th Bedroom/Guest Suite is Split! Amazing Oversized Kitchen w/Dual Ovens, Dual Dishwashers, Center Island, Pull-out Shelves & Walk-in Pantry - tons of Storage Space throughout! Fabulous Covered Pato for Outdoor Entertaining Overlooking the Lake! Huge Master Retreat w/Sitting Room, See-through Fireplace shared with Master Bath, Jetted Tub, Stone Shower, Marble Countertops & Enormous Closet w/10' Ceilings and Loads of Custom Built-ins! Formal Dining with Marble Flooring & Private Sitting Room/Patio. Private Boat Dock & all Val Vista Lakes Clubhouse Amenities - $10 million clubhouse, heated Jr. Olympic pool, Sandy Beach, Tennis Club & Raquetball!

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$548,000 :: 432 S BAY SHORE Boulevard, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,521 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 05/24/18, Last Updated: 01/18/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5770856
Community: HARBOR POINT LOT 1-78 LAKE EASMT
Tract: HARBOR POINT LOT 1-78 LAKE EASMT
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/18/2019 by 2%
Status: Active


Beautiful remodel on the water in the Islands! New wood floors greet you as you open the door to the living and dining areas. It then flows into the kitchen & greatroom which overlook the sparkling pool, lake & grassy backyard. The kitchen has stainless appliances & plenty of counter space including a perfect area for a coffee bar! Upstairs is the master with a balcony with views of the lake. The master has a large ensuite bathroom and large walk in closet. The secondary bedrooms are also upstairs and are all a generous size. The second full bath is adjacent to the other bedrooms. The home also has a 3 car garage! New carpet, new wood floor, new lighting, new kitchen design, newly resurfaced pool, freshly painted inside and out and much more! This home is move in ready!

Listed with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,059,000 :: 285 N Ski Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

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5 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 3,678 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,037 sq ft
Added: 08/29/18, Last Updated: 01/18/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5813254
Community: Crystal Point Estates
Tract: Crystal Point Estates
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/18/2019 by 4%
Status: Active


Arizona Waterfront Living, with a newly Adjusted Price! Beautiful Custom Home in sought after Crystal Point Estates , Gilbert Az. Live Arizona your way in your waterfront custom home with it's own sandy beach and boating!! If you are looking for stunning Arizona Lakeviews and a Waterfront Lifestyle you can enjoy every single day,this is the Community for you!! Boating on the Lake includes a regulation slalom course, jump ramp and trick skiing, tubing, paddle boating & more.This beautiful property offers 5 BR, 4 BA, 3678 sf builder,almost a half acre lot at 19,985sf and approx. 164 feet of water frontage. Formal Living Room touts stunning views upon entry into this lovely property. -click More-

Listed with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

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