Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

Arizona Monsoon Storms

Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$580,000 :: 1442 W CORAL REEF Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,289 sq ft
Lot Size: 1,743 sq ft
Added: 06/18/21, Last Updated: 07/28/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6239386
Community: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF
Tract: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/28/2021 by 2%
Status: Active


Lake front property! Bring your paddle boats, pontoons, kyaks, paddle boards, canoes and troll around in these beautiful water. This fantastic water front property is waiting for you to call it home. Beautiful views from your patio and balcony. Travetine floors, master travertine shower and surrounds- spacious bedrooms, open greatroom and kitchen with beautiful granite counters and island. Den downstairs and loft upstairs.

Listed with HomeSmart Lifestyles


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$515,000 :: 1326 W CORAL REEF Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,048 sq ft
Lot Size: 2,178 sq ft
Added: 05/14/21, Last Updated: 07/28/21
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6234271
Community: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF
Tract: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF
Status: Active


Imagine your work day is done, you arrive home at your own paradise, grab a relaxing beverage of choice and head out to the lake for the sunset. A weekend party with friends enjoying the water views from the patio, a relaxing weekend at home watching ducks, turtles and more from your private balcony. All this can be yours in this low maintenance, waterfront condo in the Islands of Gilbert. Dramatic double height ceilings in the living room welcome you to this well cared for and turn key home. Kitchen opens to the dining room and both share views of the water. Laundry, half bath and storage are downstairs. Upstairs you'll find 3 bedrooms and 2 more baths. Master bedroom boasts huge bathroom, walk-in closet, snail shower & private, lakeside balcony. Great location, Make it yours today!

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,282,461 :: 1452 E BLUE RIDGE Way, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,949 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,633 sq ft
Added: 07/28/21, Last Updated: 07/28/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6270680
Community: HAMSTRA DAIRY PHASE 1 REPLAT
Tract: HAMSTRA DAIRY PHASE 1 REPLAT
Status: Active


Located in the master-planned community of Waterston with a 7-acre Central Park and Lake this single story MODEL home features black gourmet stainless steel appliances with a G.E. 36'' gas cooktop, double wall ovens, professional 36'' vented hood, microwave, dishwasher and refrigerator, granite and quartz kitchen countertops, designer kitchen backsplash, Timberlake Portfolio Lusanne maple truffle kitchen cabinets, oversized kitchen island, two-tone interior paint, 12' ceiling at great room, walk-in shower at primary bath, stackable washer and dryer at primary suite closet, slider at gameroom, exterior fireplace in courtyard, exterior French door at primary suite, professionally landscaped front and back, pavers at driveway and porch and so much more. Close of escrow on or before 11/15/21

Listed with Tri Pointe Homes Arizona Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,290,017 :: 1438 E BLUE RIDGE Way, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,382 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,633 sq ft
Added: 07/27/21, Last Updated: 07/27/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6270429
Community: HAMSTRA DAIRY PHASE 1 REPLAT
Tract: HAMSTRA DAIRY PHASE 1 REPLAT
Status: Active


Located in the master-planned community of Waterston with a 7-acre Central Park and Lake this single story MODEL home features gourmet stainless steel appliances with a G.E. 36'' gas cooktop, double wall ovens, professional 36'' vented hood, microwave, dishwasher and refrigerator, granite kitchen countertops, designer kitchen backsplash, extended kitchen nook, Kinsdale Boulder kitchen cabinets with 42'' stacked uppers, oversized kitchen island, two-tone interior paint, extended bedrooms 2 and 3, 12' ceiling at great room, generation suite with a kitchenette, frameless walk-in shower at primary bath, 90 degree slider at extended nook and great room, professionally landscaped front and back, pavers at driveway and front porch and so much more. Close of escrow on or before 11/15/21.

Listed with Tri Pointe Homes Arizona Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$550,000 :: 457 S Marina Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,156 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,921 sq ft
Added: 07/16/21, Last Updated: 07/16/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6257231
Community: CORAL POINT the Falls, WATERFRONT home
Tract: CORAL POINT the Falls, WATERFRONT home
Status: Active


Imagine your morning coffee accompanied by a peaceful lake view! This 3 Br. waterfront home inside a GATED COMMUNITY was modified at construction for extra space, and seamlessly blends indoor and outdoor living. An open greatroom has vaulted ceiling, dramatic staircase, and overlooks the patio with a backdrop of cool, crisp water. In addition to a view balcony, the master suite sports a glass-enclosed fireplace, large bath and walk-in closet. The kitchen is a cook's delight, smart and nicely appointed with black tile surfaces and stainless appliances, and is open to the family room with fireplace. Plank tile flooring, plantation shutters, oversized second bedroom, and two newer A/Cs in 2018. HOA fee is reasonable and includes front and back yard maintenance, community pool, parks.

Listed with Arizona Elite Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$530,000 :: 521 S Marina Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,425 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 06/12/21, Last Updated: 07/15/21
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6248280
Community: CORAL POINTE
Tract: CORAL POINTE
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/6/2021 by 4%
Status: Active


Beautiful lake views from this waterfront home in the gated community of The Islands a" enjoy the lake views from the living room, master bedroom & upstairs bedroom! It features an open split floor plan with master bedroom downstairs, vaulted ceiling, 10 year old AC, 10 year old roof & 5 year old boat deck. The kitchen is open with lots of cabinet space, great countertop space, well taken care of appliances, breakfast bar & large pantry space! The master bedroom is large enough for a king bed to fit comfortably. Separate loft can be used as office space with built-ins. Enjoy the 180 degree lake views from the backyard deck & private dock. Front yard landscaping is included with HOA! Great location for an owner occupant, family, rental or winter visitor.

Listed with North & Co


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$569,900 :: 1313 W WINDRIFT Way, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,183 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,921 sq ft
Added: 05/25/21, Last Updated: 07/08/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6241203
Community: The Islands
Tract: The Islands
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/8/2021 by 2%
Status: Active


Wow!!!! WATERFRONT former Model Home, Beautifully designed open floorplan, Nice and bright natural light, with amazing lake views to enjoy! This home features Stunning Vaulted ceilings, elegant fireplace in Living room, 3 Awesome Bedrooms upstairs and 2.5 bathrooms, upgraded Kitchen with pull out cabinets drawers, smooth stove top, granite countertops and Huge walk in pantry. Backyard includes putting green, private SPA, Good size Covered Patio and custom built in BBQ Grill with bar. Lots of storage and an Extended 2 car garage. Very Desirable community in The Islands, offering Fishing,boating, parks and recreation for you and your Family!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$568,900 :: 517 S MARINA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,003 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 05/21/21, Last Updated: 06/30/21
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6232721
Community: CORAL POINTE TRACTS A-K
Tract: CORAL POINTE TRACTS A-K
The price of this listing was last reduced on 6/30/2021 by 2%
Status: Active


Lakefront Property! Upon entering, notice the soaring 26ft ceilings in your open and airy living room. This charming home has an updated kitchen with white cabinets, granite countertops, granite backsplash, and beautiful views. 2 large glass sliding doors that open onto a tile patio compete with 2 fire pits, a pond, an in ground spa and amazing views of the lake. Upstairs the large master suite includes his and hers closets, vaulted ceilings and a deck overlooking the lake. Don't miss out on the chance to live in your own ''Island'' paradise.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$3,500,000 :: 1502 E TREASURE COVE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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8 beds, 8 baths
Home size: 6,781 sq ft
Lot Size: 33,542 sq ft
Added: 06/25/21, Last Updated: 06/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6256331
Community: WEST LAKE ESTATES
Tract: WEST LAKE ESTATES
Status: Active


Welcome to the rarest one-of-a-kind GEM on Treasure Cove located in the coveted & prestigious GATED West Lake Estates! This unique estate is located on 2 waterfront lots with the most STUNNING expansive views of the lake--and this exquisite ESTATE has recently been completed remodeled! This amazing estate boasts: over 6700 square feet of the finest luxury and superior quality finishes with 8 bedrooms and 8 baths, a large 3 car garage, an elevator, Gourmet Chef's Kitchen--indoors and out--home theater, game room, 50 bottle wine room with humidor, impressive outdoor patio with a huge gazebo that has misting and heating, firepits, impressive 36,000 gallon salt water pool with swim up bar.. the views & outdoor living are like living in the finest 5 star resort! Click ''more'' for further

Listed with Cooper Premier Properties LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$575,900 :: 1025 W PENINSULA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,787 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 12/05/20, Last Updated: 01/27/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6156476
Community: WINDHAVEN
Tract: WINDHAVEN
Status: Active


BEST PRICED WATERFRONT ISLAND HM.N/S.EXP.OVER 10K SF WATERFRT VIEW LOT W/94 FEET OF WATER FRONT & APPROX.120FT DEEP LOT.PRVT DOCK BRIGHT&OPEN.FORMAL LVG;DININGNOOK+FR.VAULTED CEILING.UPDATED FLOORING;GRANITE COUNTER KITCHEN CABINETS;WHITE WOOD SHUTTERS.SECURITY DRS@ENTRY&BACK PATIO DBL FRENCH DOOR. OVER-SIZED COV'D PATIO.WET BAR W/GRANITE COUNTER.ALL BATHS HAVE BEEN REMODELED.MASSIVE MASTER BR W/HIS&HER'S CLOSETSSEP.TUB/SHOWER.2 SINKS W/SPACIOUS COUNTER SPACE&STORAGE.DBL FRENCH DOOR W/SEC.IRON GATE WALK ON TO PVT WATER FRONT VIEW DECK FOR YOUR LEISURE MORNING RELAXATION -THEN RETURN TO ENJOY THE INCREDIBLE ARIZONA SUNSET-LIFE IS JUST PERFECT HERE. HURRY! CALL NOW FOR YOUR PRIVATE TOUR ARRANGEMENT. MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE. MASKS REQUIRED WHILE ON THE PREMISE.

Listed with FDR Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

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