2014 Real Estate Market Update

How 2013 ended and where is the market going in  2014?Waterfront View II

The past 2 years have provided Phoenix area homeowners with double digit gains, and the market has been in the sellers’ favor.  But with higher prices and more sellers looking to take advantage, the balance between buyers and sellers is shifting.  Distressed sales (short sales and  foreclosures) which were a favorite of investors continue to see significant decreases. Are foreclosures coming back? Will more houses sell in 2014? How long will it take to sell a home in 2014? Are inventory levels still low?  Continue to read for answers to these questions.

Where have the distressed sales gone?

Dec 2013 Distressed Sales

It doesn’t seem too long ago that horror stories about getting a short sale closed were all too common. And those foreclosures and  short sales that investors eagerly sought after are all but gone.  And if you find a Fannie Mae foreclosure, it is probably over-priced when it comes on the market.  Foreclosure sales are now quickly becoming a minority of total sales.  In most all Phoenix area cities distressed sales have been cut in half or more in the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows distressed sales as a percentage of monthly sales for various cities.  Chandler distressed sales went from 36% in Dec. 2012 to 14%  in Dec. 2013.  Gilbert distressed sales reduced from 37% to 13%, and Glendale from  41% to 20%, and Avondale saw distressed sales change from 52% to 27% while Mesa sent from 35% to 17%.  These drops are very not suprising  since Notices of Trustee Sale which are a leading indicator of short sales and foreclosures are down to levels not seen since 2006!

Will more homes sell in 2014?Phoenix sales per week 2014

As prices have risen for the past three years, demand or sales of houses has responded to price changes, something economists call ‘Price elasticity of Demand’.   The chart to the right shows the sales for the city of Phoenix for years 2011 – 2013 and the first weeks  of January 2014.  This chart is representative of most valley cities. The bottom line is that demand or sales for houses has decreased as the prices have increased. Additionally, the number of homes for sale has gone up.  So it is understandable why sales during the first month of 2014 are lower than the previous 3 years and likely to continue for the year.

How long will it take to sell in 2014?

Months Supply Feb 2014If you are a seller and wondering how long it will take to sell your home, the graph to the left my be a guideline. It shows how many months of supply of homes are on the market for specific price ranges.  As you can see it will depend on the market value of the property. Gone are the days when homes would go on the market Friday and receive multiple offers over the weekend.  Even lower prices homes are taking longer than a year ago.

What’s ahead in 2014?Active Listings by Category

2014  will be a transition year for Phoenix real estate that seeks equilibrium from previous extremes and becomes a normal market(if that’s possible). One  of differences between 2013 and 2014 will inventory levels or available homes for sale, both in the number and type.  Since mid-2013 the available homes for sale has been rising, and fewer are short sales and foreclosures as noted above.

Price appreciation will be significantly less than in previous years.  Reasons for this slow down?

1.)  Interest rates will be higher than in the past.  A discussion with a good loan officer will be helpful in this regard.

2.)   There are not as many investors as there were a year ago when short sales and foreclosures were in high demand due to lower prices.

3.) Higher inventory levels provide buyers more leverage.

4.) Fewer properties will be sold in 2014 than in 2013 as noted above.  With more homes for sale in 2014, buyers will have more leverage and homes from which to choose which will dampen the price appreciation we’ve enjoyed for the last 2 years.

Pontoon boat viewIn 2014, it will be more important than ever to property price a home, make necessary preparations before going on the market, and getting maximum exposure to qualified buyers.
If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

Related Posts

2013 First Half Real Estate Trends

How has Real Estate Started in 2013?

Over-Priced Fannie Mae Short Sales and Foreclosures

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Gilbert Home Search

$995,000 :: 1441 E CATAMARAN Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,378 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,633 sq ft
Added: 03/09/23, Last Updated: 03/09/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6529473
Community: MISSION BAY ESTS AT VAL VISTA LAKES AMD 1-73 A-D
Tract: MISSION BAY ESTS AT VAL VISTA LAKES AMD 1-73 A-D
Status: Active


Fantastic opportunity, Rare Find Waterfront - 1 story Home in Fabulous Val Vista Lakes! This Home is Perfect for Families and Entertainment - 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 bath, 3378 Sqft, 3 Car Garage, Spacious bedrooms, Smart lighting throughout the house, Double Sided Fireplace, Bar, Split Floor Plan for Your Privacy, and Bonus - Home Theater! Home includes a custom made media room with 135'' screen, 4k projector, surround sound system, soundproof insulation and reclining chairs. Furniture available. Gilbert is Award-winning Gilbert School District! Val Vista Lakes features a $10 Million Clubhouse, Heated Jr. Olympic Pool, Sandy Beach, Spa, Tennis/Pickle Ball Club, Racquetball, Fishing, Boating & More!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


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$1,740,000 :: 1523 E TREASURE COVE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 5,992 sq ft
Lot Size: 17,424 sq ft
Added: 02/09/23, Last Updated: 02/09/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6516482
Community: WEST LAKE ESTATES
Tract: WEST LAKE ESTATES
Status: Active


OPPORTUNITY IN WEST LAKE. This home has been occupied by the original family since build. Situated in one of the towns most desirable gated communities in Val Vista Lakes. The exceptional character of this property sets it apart from most custom homes. Home has generously apportioned rooms with all bedrooms en-suite. Two home office spaces, one up and one on the lower level. Primary suite has large sitting room den with access to the balcony outdoor living area. Two walk-in closets, spacious primary bathroom with separate tub & shower and vanitiesLower level has large bedroom and bathroom with patio/pool access. Kitchen could be a remodelers dream! Enormous opportunity for entertainers with large dinette, pantry, wet bar that opens to family room on one side and formal dining room on the

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


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$820,000 :: 510 S LAGOON Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,493 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,277 sq ft
Added: 02/02/23, Last Updated: 02/07/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6507074
Community: WINDHAVEN
Tract: WINDHAVEN
Status: Active


Rare waterfront property in the highly desirable Islands neighborhood! Large covered patio with private pool and boat dock. Gourmet kitchen including an island, SS appliances and granite countertops. Stunning views of the lake from interior dining and backyard. Prime location in the Windhaven Subdivision and perfect for any water lover! New A/C units purchased 2022.

Listed with LUX AGENCY


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$3,500,000 :: 378 N SHORE Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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6 beds, 6 baths
Home size: 7,120 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,038 sq ft
Added: 02/07/23, Last Updated: 02/07/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6517238
Community: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT 1-20 TR A-H
Tract: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES AMD LOT 1-20 TR A-H
Status: Active


A public Beach is nice, but YOUR BEACH IS BETTER! As seen on Fox 10! Welcome to Crystal Point Estates, the most established Water Ski Community in Phoenix.The lake was built exclusively for competitive water skiing-1/2 mile long, 225 ft wide, 8ft deep, wind protected, includes a slalom course, jump ramp, and two turn islands at each end of the lake that help with wash out. Conveniently located near downtown Gilbert, major highways, and a short drive to Sky Harbor Airport. Once you drive through the gates you realize you're experiencing a special place. Your FULLY FURNISHED luxury home features 6 bedrooms, 6 baths(4 full and 2 half baths). Upon entering take notice of the dramatic ceilings, perfectly appointed rooms, large Bay windows-maximizing all the sunshine Arizona has to offer.

Listed with eXp Realty


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$575,900 :: 1025 W PENINSULA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,787 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 12/05/20, Last Updated: 01/27/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6156476
Community: WINDHAVEN
Tract: WINDHAVEN
Status: Active


BEST PRICED WATERFRONT ISLAND HM.N/S.EXP.OVER 10K SF WATERFRT VIEW LOT W/94 FEET OF WATER FRONT & APPROX.120FT DEEP LOT.PRVT DOCK BRIGHT&OPEN.FORMAL LVG;DININGNOOK+FR.VAULTED CEILING.UPDATED FLOORING;GRANITE COUNTER KITCHEN CABINETS;WHITE WOOD SHUTTERS.SECURITY DRS@ENTRY&BACK PATIO DBL FRENCH DOOR. OVER-SIZED COV'D PATIO.WET BAR W/GRANITE COUNTER.ALL BATHS HAVE BEEN REMODELED.MASSIVE MASTER BR W/HIS&HER'S CLOSETSSEP.TUB/SHOWER.2 SINKS W/SPACIOUS COUNTER SPACE&STORAGE.DBL FRENCH DOOR W/SEC.IRON GATE WALK ON TO PVT WATER FRONT VIEW DECK FOR YOUR LEISURE MORNING RELAXATION -THEN RETURN TO ENJOY THE INCREDIBLE ARIZONA SUNSET-LIFE IS JUST PERFECT HERE. HURRY! CALL NOW FOR YOUR PRIVATE TOUR ARRANGEMENT. MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE. MASKS REQUIRED WHILE ON THE PREMISE.

Listed with FDR Real Estate


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