Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$1,050,000 :: 12011 E VIA DE PALMAS --, Chandler AZ, 85249

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4 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 4,068 sq ft
Lot Size: 42,688 sq ft
Added: 03/25/19, Last Updated: 03/25/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5901333
Community: County Island
Tract: County Island
Status: Active


Updated pictures 3/30/19. Gorgeous Luxury Masterpiece! NO HOA! MASSIVE 50'x55' RV GARAGE w/ casita! Backyard paradise w/ custom pool, outdoor kitchen, huge patio, fire pit, grass and garden area all on 1 Acre Lot! 4 bedrooms, an office, 3 full baths, 1/2 bath, formal dining & breakfast area. Huge great room off kitchen so everyone is part of the action. Soaring ceilings at entry! Gourmet kitchen to meet the chefs needs; gas cooktop, granite counter tops, tons of counter space, large island, pantry, and super built in home command center! Expansive master bedroom, huge closet, relaxing tub and walk in shower, all for the owner's pleasure! Attached 4 car garage leads directly into large laundry room. Wood floors & travertine. Don't miss this once in a lifetime opportunity!

Listed with Premier Realty Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$439,900 :: 15084 E MUSTANG Drive, Fountain Hills AZ, 85268

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,366 sq ft
Lot Size: 15,245 sq ft
Added: 03/25/19, Last Updated: 03/25/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5901238
Community: FOUNTAIN HILLS F P 604-B AMD TR A & B
Tract: FOUNTAIN HILLS F P 604-B AMD TR A & B
Status: Active


Great home in the heart of Fountain Hills ready for your personal touch! This one has amazing mountain views, pool, vaulted ceilings, ceiling fans, dual AC units, fireplace, built ins, kitchen island, dual sinks as well as separate tub and shower in master bathroom, and much more! Seller has replaced the walk deck! See Realtor Remarks for access information. Buyer to verify all facts, figures, measurements and HOA related fees. Property sold as-is!

Listed with Olson Gough


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$199,500 :: 1750 W UNION HILLS Drive #88, Phoenix AZ, 85027

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,308 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,049 sq ft
Added: 12/26/18, Last Updated: 03/25/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5860215
Community: DEER VALLEY ESTATES
Tract: DEER VALLEY ESTATES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/25/2019 by 5%
Status: Active


This wonderful home is located within a gated community. Nearby there is easy access to Loop 101 and I17, Costco, Deer Valley Park, and so much more! The living room welcomes you in with vaulted ceilings and a built in entertainment center. The kitchen is open and bright with plenty of cabinet and countertop space. Both bedrooms are the perfect size and the den would be wonderful for an in home office or play area. Schedule your showing today!

Listed with Arizona Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$250,000 :: 7579 W KRALL Street, Glendale AZ, 85303

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,178 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 03/25/19, Last Updated: 03/25/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5901077
Community: CASA LINDA
Tract: CASA LINDA
Status: Active


Huge home close to Westgate is a great value! 4 large bedrooms, 2 and a half baths plus a huge loft. Easy to maintain tile flooring on the main floor. Great sized kitchen with tons of workspace and storage. Check out the huge pantry. Master bath features large walk in closet, large shower, and double sink vanity. Check us out today and make this house your home!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$201,700 :: 11356 E SUNLAND Avenue, Mesa AZ, 85208

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,304 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,662 sq ft
Added: 02/11/19, Last Updated: 03/25/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5881616
Community: PARKWOOD EAST 2
Tract: PARKWOOD EAST 2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/25/2019 by 5%
Status: Active


Nice single story home in a centrally located Mesa neighborhood close to schools and shopping. Property features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a very functional, open layout. The home is in need of some TLC including termite treatment, but the property could be a great investment.

Listed with Real Home Services & Solutions


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$109,900 :: 308 N 1ST Street, Avondale AZ, 85323

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,328 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,227 sq ft
Added: 12/20/18, Last Updated: 03/25/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5859326
Community: WHYMAN SUB LOTS 8-11
Tract: WHYMAN SUB LOTS 8-11
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/25/2019 by 4%
Status: Active


This home is located just south of the I10, east of the Phoenix Goodyear Airport, and near many different shopping and dining options. The backyard is open with pavers, a tree, and covered patio area. Inside the bedrooms are the perfect size and the kitchen has an eat in dining area. Fred Campbell Park or Loma Linda Park are both nearby to enjoy!

Listed with Arizona Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,299,900 :: 6919 E LANGUID Lane, Carefree AZ, 85377

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7 beds, 5.5 baths
Home size: 11,544 sq ft
Lot Size: 67,953 sq ft
Added: 03/18/19, Last Updated: 03/24/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5898016
Community: CAREFREE PLAT 3B
Tract: CAREFREE PLAT 3B
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/24/2019 by 13%
Status: Active


This unique property is priced to sell!! WOW!! Across from The Boulders with easy direct access to the valley. Built to capture the views with a 2nd story wrap around a central pool and spa. Large circular entertainment bar with adjacent butlers pantry and media room. Very large master suite on 2nd level with fireplace, huge master bath, additional room to use as an office or master sitting area and a massive walk in closet. The 2nd level has 3 additional bedrooms, and 3 bedrooms on the main level (one is a mother in law suite or guest quarters)Separate 4 car garage and circular entry with lots of space for guest parking. 11,554 sq ft home on a 1.56 acre lot.

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$30,000 :: 21621 W WILSON Avenue, Wittmann AZ, 85361

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 750 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,969 sq ft
Added: 03/23/19, Last Updated: 03/24/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5900738
Community: NADABURG BLKS 34, 43-45, 48-52, 54-59
Tract: NADABURG BLKS 34, 43-45, 48-52, 54-59
Status: Active


Only minutes from Grand ave. Priced for a quick sale. Great property for investor or owner occupant with some sweat equity.

Listed with Legendary Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,650,000 :: 9151 N FIRERIDGE Trail, Fountain Hills AZ, 85268

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5 beds, 6 baths
Home size: 6,208 sq ft
Lot Size: 34,848 sq ft
Added: 01/30/19, Last Updated: 03/23/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5875316
Community: FIREROCK COUNTRY CLUB
Tract: FIREROCK COUNTRY CLUB
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/23/2019 by 12%
Status: Active


Exclusive gated community of FIREROCK Country Club, 4th Fairway. Distinctive Tuscan design with grand foyer Fountain Atrium. An abundance of Canterra Stone. Exquisite Travertine. Groin hallway ceilings. Gourmet Kitchen: 6 burner Wolfe double oven, custom carved wood cabinetry, abundant Granite. 250 Bottle Wine Cellar. Gorgeous Office w/hand scraped wood & box beams. Opulent Master complete with dropped & coffered ceiling, massive gas Fireplace, Breakfast Bar, attached Writing Retreat. Deep jetted Tub w/ Grecian Canterra columns. Separate Guest Wing + Casita. Game Rm. 4Car Collector Gar. Exclusive wrap around pool with 6 negative edges and Island Spa. Multiple outdoor seating areas to enjoy Golf & Mountain VIEWS. Unique. Special. Distinctive.

Listed with BG Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$279,900 :: 4808 N 24TH Street #528, Phoenix AZ, 85016

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1 bed, 1 bath
Home size: 964 sq ft
Lot Size: 871 sq ft
Added: 03/23/19, Last Updated: 03/23/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5900536
Community: OPTIMA BILTMORE TOWERS
Tract: OPTIMA BILTMORE TOWERS
Status: Active


Contemporary Urban Living at the Optima Biltmore Towers. Luxury One Bedroom Condominium With a Den and Large Balcony Patio. Spacious Living Areas with Floor to Ceiling Windows. Private and Quiet With a Great Sense of Space. Travertine Stone Floors, Veining Slab Granite Countertops. New Wood Floors, Baseboards and Paint throughout. The rooftop views are amazing! The rooftop pool is stunning! Great Conversation and Grilling Areas. Key fob access only. Exercise Room and Underground Parking. Business Center and Media Room. Biltmore Shopping and Dining.

Listed with Nouveau Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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