Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$142,900 :: 313 E CAROL Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85020

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 923 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 01/20/20, Last Updated: 04/07/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6026219
Community: TENGEN PLACE ADD BLK D - H
Tract: TENGEN PLACE ADD BLK D - H
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/18/2020 by 7%
Status: Active


Seller will not complete any repairs to the subject property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in AS IS condition'' Property has an addition of approximately 400 square feet built in 2016. Great investment.

Listed with American Scene Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$519,900 :: 140 E RIO SALADO Parkway #310, Tempe AZ, 85281

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2 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,320 sq ft
Lot Size: 2,614 sq ft
Added: 04/07/20, Last Updated: 04/07/20
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6063000
Community: BRIDGEVIEW AT HAYDEN FERRY LAKESIDE CONDOMINIUM
Tract: BRIDGEVIEW AT HAYDEN FERRY LAKESIDE CONDOMINIUM
Status: Active


Located in the Bridgeview at Hayden Ferry Lakeside Condominiums in Tempe, this spacious unit features 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, formal living room with fireplace & dining area, office with laminate wood flooring, granite countertops & maple cabinets in the kitchen, island with breakfast bar, split master bedroom floor plan, walk in closets in both bedrooms, granite vanity countertops, indoor laundry closet, balcony and more! Take a look!

Listed with A.Z. & Associates Real Estate Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$775,000 :: 3360 E INGLEWOOD Circle, Mesa AZ, 85213

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6 beds, 5.5 baths
Home size: 5,591 sq ft
Lot Size: 25,265 sq ft
Added: 02/21/20, Last Updated: 04/06/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6040542
Community: ARBOLEDA UNIT 2
Tract: ARBOLEDA UNIT 2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/6/2020 by 7%
Status: Active


Spacious living in this beautiful expansive home located in desirable gated community. This gracious basement home has it all, from stone trimmed elevation to resort style yard with a 1 bedroom 1 bath casita. Travertine tile w/ granite inlays. 5 roomy bedrooms & 4.5 bath, plus office give this spacious home so much flexibility. Formal liv & din rms, open fam room w/ entertainment wall & lots of windows, plus basement bonus rooms with movie theater. The open and large Gourmet Kitchen includes both a work Island and a Breakfast bar for all those great family gatherings. Large backyard with Pool/Spa, grass play area and room for vegetable gardens with fireplaces to bring that coziness into your evening. This is not a drive must see to appreciate.

Listed with JM Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$359,000 :: 4721 E THUNDERHILL Place, Phoenix AZ, 85044

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,159 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 03/02/20, Last Updated: 04/06/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6044558
Community: DESERT BREEZE LOT 1-188 TR A & DRAINAGEWAY
Tract: DESERT BREEZE LOT 1-188 TR A & DRAINAGEWAY
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/6/2020 by 2%
Status: Active


Beautiful 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home located in the heart of it all! Just minutes from I10, Chandler Mall, US60 and 202. The atrium window greets you as you open the front door and beckons you to the crystal blue waters of the backyard pool, but inside is worth more than a passing glance. The upgraded flooring gives a cool and inviting feel. The first floor has it's own bedroom, half a bathroom, generously sized living room and a family room open to the kitchen. The kitchen granite counters and built in breakfast table add to the charming feel. The master suite provides a serene retreat from the day. The master bath with granite topped vanity, travertine shower and separate tub let you relax away the day. This remarkable property is available for immediate sale. The seller is very responsive

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$223,500 :: 6107 W HIGHLAND Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85033

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,156 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 11/29/19, Last Updated: 04/06/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6009710
Community: MARYVALE TERRACE 25 AMD LOTS 13409-13534
Tract: MARYVALE TERRACE 25 AMD LOTS 13409-13534
Status: Active


WOW! This wonderful tri-level home has a great yard to enjoy with a pool! Plenty of living space for everyone! Ceramic tile in all the right places with a neutral paint scheme! The kitchen has a wonderful layout! There is access to the bottom floor straight to the garage. The backyard is ready to become your paradise! Nearby there is easy access to Grand Canyon University Golf Course, Maryvale Baseball Park, and the US6, plus many different shopping or dining options.

Listed with Arizona Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$311,800 :: 18274 W SMOKEY Drive, Surprise AZ, 85388

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,543 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,228 sq ft
Added: 04/06/20, Last Updated: 04/06/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6062296
Community: SURPRISE FARMS PHASE 3 PARCEL 1
Tract: SURPRISE FARMS PHASE 3 PARCEL 1
Status: Active


VACANT AND EZ TO SHOW!! Come & see This Beautiful gem in popular Surprise Farms. The home features updated flooring with plank tiles and new upgraded carpet. The kitchen has granite counter tops with kitchen island and upgraded backsplash! The appliances are highly upgraded new stainless gas range, new stainless dishwasher and microwave. Open concept kitchen opens up to familyroom with breakfast area and kitchen island. The interior has all new two tone agreeable gray paint. The exterior has new paint. Downstairs also has a Livingroom, formal dining room and den. Upstairs you will find 4 bedrooms with a loft. Master also has a sitting room. Master bath has a dbl vanity, separate tub and shower and walk in closet. Great value for this size home. Garage has epoxy floor and new garage door

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$199,999 :: 45824 W STARLIGHT Drive, Maricopa AZ, 85139

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,646 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 02/08/20, Last Updated: 04/06/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6034796
Community: MARICOPA MEADOWS PARCEL 6
Tract: MARICOPA MEADOWS PARCEL 6
The price of this listing was last increased on 4/6/2020 by 5%
Status: Active


SPACIOUS HOME 4 bedroom 2.5 BATH 2 CAR GARAGE. AS YOU ENTER THE HOME YOU HAVE A FORMAL LIVING AREA&FAMILY ROOM WHICH OPENS TO SPACIOUS KITCHEN W/DINING NOOK&BREAK FAST BAR; UPSTAIRS YOU HAVE 4 BEDROOMS. HOME CARPET, TILE IN KITCHEN & BATHROOMS DOWNSTAIRS LAUNDRY AREA. BACKS TO COMMON AREA FOR PRIVACY. NICE BACKYARD. Home was painted march 2020.

Listed with Realty Executives Arizona Territory


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$255,000 :: 18609 W Larkspur Drive, Goodyear AZ, 85338

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,634 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 03/05/20, Last Updated: 04/06/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6046332
Community: LAS BRISAS PHASE 1
Tract: LAS BRISAS PHASE 1
Status: Active


THIS IS THE HOME YOU HAVE BEEN SEARCHING FOR! THE PERFECT 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATHROOM SINGLE LEVEL HOME! ENJOY YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD FROM THE COZY FRONT PORCH*YOUR KITCHEN IS OFF THE FRONT ENTRANCE, COMPLETE WITH A BRIGHT BREAKFAST NOOK, GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, & ESPRESSO CABINETS*ALL IN A BEAUTIFUL MODERN COLOR SCHEME TO MATCH THE GORGEOUS PORCELAIN ''WOOD'' TILE THAT RUNS THROUGHOUT THE HOME*VAULTED CEILINGS*UNIQUE EXPOSED WOOD WALL IN THE LIVING ROOM*LARGE MASTER BEDROOM LOOKS OUT TO THE BACKYARD & IS COMPLETE WITH A WALK IN CLOSET*MASTER BATHROOM FEATURES A SEPARATE STANDING SHOWER STALL & TUB*SPACIOUS BEDROOMS SPLIT FROM MASTER*LAUNDRY ROOM OFF OF GARAGE*2.5 CAR GARAGE*LARGE BACKYARD WITH RV GATE*THIS ONE WILL NOT LAST, DON'T WAIT ON THIS DREAM HOME!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$242,900 :: 4144 W HARTFORD Avenue, Glendale AZ, 85308

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,518 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 02/26/20, Last Updated: 04/06/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6041979
Community: Desert Pines
Tract: Desert Pines
Status: Active


This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom Glendale home features formal living room with vaulted ceilings, family room with brick fireplace, diagonally laid tile flooring, maple kitchen cabinets with granite countertops & tile backsplash, kitchen island with breakfast bar, front covered patio area, Arizona room, pool, 2 car garage and more! Take a look!!

Listed with A.Z. & Associates Real Estate Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$106,000 :: 9814 W LANCASTER Drive, Sun City AZ, 85351

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 1,141 sq ft
Lot Size: 2,178 sq ft
Added: 01/10/20, Last Updated: 04/06/20
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6022357
Community: SUN CITY 28A
Tract: SUN CITY 28A
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/6/2020 by 7%
Status: Active


2 bedroom in beautiful Sun City. Unit has 2 car garage, spacious great room and split bedrooms. Nice courtyard entry and patio off master bedroom. Close to shopping, medical facilities and recreation centers. No rentals allowed.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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