Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

Related Posts:

Who really loses on a foreclosure?

Keys to a successful Gilbert or Chandler short sale listing

 

$311,900 :: 7001 W WINDSOR Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85035

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,330 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 07/05/21, Last Updated: 07/28/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6260243
Community: MARYVALE TERRACE 58
Tract: MARYVALE TERRACE 58
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/28/2021 by 1%
Status: Active


Recently remodeled, painted inside and out, new quartz, move in ready, dont miss out

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$150,000 :: 623 W CHIPMAN Road, Phoenix AZ, 85041

Property Photo

Mls Icon

2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 756 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 07/25/21, Last Updated: 07/26/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6269569
Community: COUNTRY HOMES LOTS 1-40
Tract: COUNTRY HOMES LOTS 1-40
Status: Active


Great investment property for long term rental or starter home with some sweat equity. Priced for quick sale, make an offer before it's gone. Drive-by only at this time.

Listed with Legendary Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$250,000 :: 851 S John Wayne Parkway, Maricopa AZ, 85138

Property Photo

Mls Icon

2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 576 sq ft
Lot Size: 98,882 sq ft
Added: 04/25/21, Last Updated: 07/24/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6226758
Community: SW SW SW NW SEC 28 6S 3E 2.5AC
Tract: SW SW SW NW SEC 28 6S 3E 2.5AC
The price of this listing was last increased on 4/26/2021 by 0%
Status: Active


Great big piece of Maricopa. This is the property that you need to have. Full of life at the end of John Wayne Parkway. Convenient to Stanfield, CG or anywhere on I-8.

Listed with Legendary Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$2,856,000 :: 14531 E SIERRA ALEGRE Court, Fountain Hills AZ, 85268

Property Photo

Mls Icon

5 beds, 8 baths
Home size: 9,653 sq ft
Lot Size: 163,786 sq ft
Added: 07/22/21, Last Updated: 07/22/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6268282
Community: CRESTVIEW AT FOUNTAIN HILLS
Tract: CRESTVIEW AT FOUNTAIN HILLS
Status: Active


Luxury Contemporary Custom Estate designed to perfection on 3.8 Acres Located in a private GATED community on the Scottsdale border. Dramatic design & architecture w/soaring ceilings, HUGE open & split floorplan, oversized rooms, walls of windows w/automated glass wall off the family room w/fabulous & seamless extension of the indoor/outdoor living space! An absolute entertainers dream! MASSIVE family rm w/lrg wet bar & wine cellar open to the fabulous gourmet kitchen! Huge,5-car garage w/frosted glass doors, Elevator,Amazing master suite . w/FP,steam shower,huge master bathrm,& his/her closets. This is a REO property sold AS IS condition. Seller will not make a decision on any offers in the first 10 days of the listing

Listed with JM Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$450,000 :: 17575 W WATSON Lane, Surprise AZ, 85388

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,425 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 07/19/21, Last Updated: 07/19/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6266999
Community: SIERRA MONTANA PARCEL 10
Tract: SIERRA MONTANA PARCEL 10
Status: Active


AMAZING 2 STORY HOUSE IN A PICTURESQUE NEIGHBORHOOD. GORGEOUS KITCHEN, SPACIOUS ROOMS AND A NICE CHUNK OF LAND IN THE BACKYARD. YOU WON'T REGRET IT! AGENTS PLEASE TAKE A LOOK AT THE PRIVATE REMARKS AS THEY ARE IMPORTANT.

Listed with Novus Realty Agency


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$380,000 :: 21986 W Cocopah Street, Buckeye AZ, 85326

Property Photo

Mls Icon

5 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,109 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 07/18/21, Last Updated: 07/18/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6266384
Community: Sundance
Tract: Sundance
Status: Active


Incredible opportunity at Sundance. This 2 Story Home has 5 bedrooms and 2.5 Baths. Large backyard for your entertainment ideas. Spacious living areas and tons of natural sunlight. There are two master bedrooms. One downstairs and another upstairs. The Upstair master bedroom is large to be a complete retreat. This house is ready for you to move-in! This home has been well cared for and is super clean! Under 400K with al this amazing size is nothing but incredible. The house was built in 2005. It also has solar panels to avoid those higher electric bills.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$895,000 :: 10170 E LARKSPUR Drive, Scottsdale AZ, 85260

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 4,063 sq ft
Lot Size: 15,682 sq ft
Added: 05/04/21, Last Updated: 07/09/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6231026
Community: POWDERHORN RANCH
Tract: POWDERHORN RANCH
Status: Active


Located in the Powderhorn Ranch community in Scottsdale, this spacious home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, formal living room, family room with double-sided fireplace & wet bar, formal dining room, travertine flooring, vaulted ceilings & fireplace in the master bedroom, double sinks in the master bath, granite countertops & breakfast area in the kitchen, walk-in pantry, 3 car garage and more!

Listed with A.Z. & Associates


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,375,000 :: 19051 S 196TH Place, Queen Creek AZ, 85142

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,976 sq ft
Lot Size: 18,731 sq ft
Added: 05/28/21, Last Updated: 06/07/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6241809
Community: LA JARA FARMS 2
Tract: LA JARA FARMS 2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 6/7/2021 by 2%
Status: Active


Some interior highlights include an open floor plan with Plantation shutters, office/den, a walk-in pantry.

Listed with Big Door Realty, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


If you are experiencing a financial hardship, click to receive short sale information.

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *