Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$309,500 :: 726 E IRMA Lane, Phoenix AZ, 85024

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,832 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,098 sq ft
Added: 04/23/18, Last Updated: 07/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5755715
Community: ARROYO ROJO
Tract: ARROYO ROJO
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/17/2018 by 6%
Status: Active


Great community located near trails, parks, & a children's playground. North/south location with mountain views from the backyard. Spacious loft with access to balcony. Master bedroom is on the 1st level. The vaulted ceilings give the home a spacious feel. The large den could be converted to a 5th bedroom.

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$126,900 :: 17032 N 16TH Drive #4, Phoenix AZ, 85023

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,112 sq ft
Lot Size: 871 sq ft
Added: 03/22/18, Last Updated: 07/17/18
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5740325
Community: PERSIAN GARDENS AMD LOT 1-80 8
Tract: PERSIAN GARDENS AMD LOT 1-80 8
The price of this listing was last reduced on 6/22/2018 by 2%
Status: Active


This rare three bedroom, two bath townhome is located in a great community with a sparkling blue pool, children's playground and basketball area. Nearby there is easy access to Turf Paradise, I17 freeway, and lots of shopping and dining. The kitchen has been recently updated with granite and newer cabinets, travertine flooring and neutral paint throughout.

Listed with Arizona Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$182,000 :: 14407 N SAN CARLOS Drive, Fountain Hills AZ, 85268

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,050 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,583 sq ft
Added: 05/09/18, Last Updated: 07/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5763807
Community: FOUNTAIN HILLS AZ FP 107 PAR A
Tract: FOUNTAIN HILLS AZ FP 107 PAR A
Status: Active


Bright, Open Floorplan! Formal Dining! Good-size Master with full bath and separate exit to backyard! Cov'd patio! Extra storage area off garage! Low maintenance desert landscaping! Home does need some work, please look at all pics for accurate representation. Home is located in the NPOA 350 one-time.

Listed with Re/Max Precision


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$179,900 :: 11422 S MOHAVE Street, Phoenix AZ, 85044

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 1,055 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,147 sq ft
Added: 07/14/18, Last Updated: 07/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5793655
Community: AHWATUKEE RS 2
Tract: AHWATUKEE RS 2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/16/2018 by 4%
Status: Active


Ahwatukee Retirement community with Mountain Views . This home is priced below market. It needs paint and carpet. Cute 2 bdrm, 1 bath with, 2car garage, an Arizona Room and workshop! Beautiful mature desert backyard . Close to shopping, freeways, restaurants and community center.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$191,000 :: 1001 N PASADENA -- #149, Mesa AZ, 85201

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 926 sq ft
Lot Size: 871 sq ft
Added: 07/03/18, Last Updated: 07/16/18
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5788824
Community: PARKE CENTRE CASITAS
Tract: PARKE CENTRE CASITAS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/16/2018 by 2%
Status: Active


Wow, high end kitchen remodel, REAL hardwood floors, plantation shutters, classy closets. New A/C installed early 2017. Pool View. Don't Miss this one. Resort Style Complex with Heated Community Pool and Spa. Lots of upgrades. Single Car Attached Garage. Fireplace, Plantation Shutters, built in shelves in master bedroom. Walk to the Oakland Athletics spring training camp and a few blocks away from the newly revitalized downtown Mesa and the light rail. You have great food, live music, and performing arts all just down the street. Mature Landscaping. Only 20 minutes from ASU, Old Town Scottsdale and Sky Harbour Airport. Great snowbird oasis, or rental property. This condo boast of space and light. It is big and bright whether you are in the kitchen or on the balcony.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$240,000 :: 10447 W TORONTO Way, Tolleson AZ, 85353

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,670 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,662 sq ft
Added: 06/22/18, Last Updated: 07/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5784037
Community: COUNTRY PLACE PHASE 4 PARCELS
Tract: COUNTRY PLACE PHASE 4 PARCELS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/16/2018 by 2%
Status: Active


This is a beautiful two stories, 5 bedrooms house in great condition, and priced for a fast sale, Back yard still dirt.but is way under sold prices, seller need it sold, it will go FHA the house is in great condition, check the comps.Fast close pre-approved buyer is a must.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$150,000 :: 1610 W FAIRMONT Drive, Tempe AZ, 85282

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3 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 1,819 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,098 sq ft
Added: 07/16/18, Last Updated: 07/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5794140
Community: PETERSON PARK
Tract: PETERSON PARK
Status: Active


*** Public Investor Auction *** 7/23/18 at 10am *** Bidding will begin on 7/23/18 at 10am with an Open House starting at 9am. The Listing Price is the Opening Bid. BIDDING IS OPEN TO THE PUBLIC. ALL BIDDERS MUST REGISTER PRIOR TO THE AUCTION. ALL AUCTION PROPERTIES ARE SUBJECT TO $3000 BUYER PREMIUM PURSUANT TO THE EVENT AGREEMENT AND AUCTION TERMS & CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONTACT LISTING AGENT FOR DETAILS & COMMISSION PAID ON THIS PROPERTY. Property sold AS-IS, buyer to waive SPDS and CLUE. Bids prior to the auction may be emailed to contracts@list3k.com. Seller reserves the right to cancel the auction if they receive a bid that meets or exceeds their reserve price prior to the auction. Register at https://azflatfee.lpages.co/auction-registration/

Listed with Gentry Real Estate Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$234,900 :: 11800 W VIRGINIA Avenue, Avondale AZ, 85392

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 1,945 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 07/05/18, Last Updated: 07/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5789329
Community: GARDEN PARK
Tract: GARDEN PARK
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/16/2018 by 6%
Status: Active


5 bedroom/3 bath home in Garden Park. Conveniently located near I-10. Home features include North/South exposure, gorgeous mountain views, private pool, large backyard with covered patio, inside laundry, 2 master bedrooms or 1 master and an in-law suite, double sinks in master bath and kitchen island. This remarkable property is available for immediate sale. The seller is very responsive and the property is a perfect opportunity for all buyer types.

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$305,000 :: 17319 W Bajada Road, Surprise AZ, 85387

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6 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 3,579 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 07/16/18, Last Updated: 07/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5794104
Community: Desert Oasis
Tract: Desert Oasis
Status: Active


Beautiful semi custom,6 bedrooms,4 full baths,additional room downstairs that can serve as an office or den or anything you like!This house shows pride of ownership and lots of love in every room.Guest room downstairs has own bathroom.Large dining room & additional eating area near kitchen.Kitchen itself is a chef's dream-granite countertops,island,state of the art stainless steel appliances and very big pantry.Ceramic tile in all the right places,plush berber carpet in rooms.Wood blinds,custom paint,wrought iron staircase,high-high ceilings.Dual A/C system helps keep utility costs low.Upstairs laundry-so convenient!.3 car garage and tons of storage.

Listed with Arrow Property Management


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$184,900 :: 4038 W TOWNLEY Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85051

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,366 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,098 sq ft
Added: 05/26/18, Last Updated: 07/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5772006
Community: NEWCASTLE HOMES 4
Tract: NEWCASTLE HOMES 4
Status: Active


A three bedroom, two bath located within minutes from Cortez Park, Metrocenter mall, and the I17. The open living room welcomes you home! In the kitchen the cabinets and countertops are updated, plus tile surround in the baths. The backyard has a covered patio/shop area for many different activities.

Listed with Arizona Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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