Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$340,000 :: 25548 N 104TH Drive, Peoria AZ, 85383

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,402 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 05/19/19, Last Updated: 05/19/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5928168
Community: TIERRA DEL RIO PARCEL 9
Tract: TIERRA DEL RIO PARCEL 9
Status: Active


Back on the market after cancellation. Amazing 4 bedroom, 2 bath quality built Pulte home in beautiful North Peoria community of Tierra Del Rio. Open flow concept, stunning kitchen, granite counters, 5 burner gas range, stainless appliances, walk-in pantry, split floorplan, 4 spacious bedrooms, master bedroom includes a large bathroom with double sinks & walk in shower, and an oversized closet. Full size guest bath with double sinks. Front yard is easy care desert landscaping, backyard has a covered patio, plants and grass. This home is in a lovely neighborhood, easy ride to shopping, dining, and Lake Pleasant. Priced to sell fast.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$895,000 :: 6423 N 51ST Place, Paradise Valley AZ, 85253

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2 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,509 sq ft
Lot Size: 37,026 sq ft
Added: 05/18/19, Last Updated: 05/18/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5927984
Community: CAMELBACK RANCHOS
Tract: CAMELBACK RANCHOS
Status: Active


This is a perfect non-hillside lot with magnificent views of Camelback and Mummy Mtn. A huge opportunity to build your dream home or simply remodel the home currently on the lot. This lot is surrounded by Multi-million dollar homes. This is one of the best areas in all of Paradise Valley. Ideally located with easy access to Sky Harbor International Airport, restaurants, Central Phoenix, and shopping in Scottsdale and Biltmore.

Listed with Hague Partners


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$279,900 :: 42942 N VISTA HILLS Court, Anthem AZ, 85086

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,827 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 05/17/19, Last Updated: 05/18/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5927388
Community: ANTHEM UNIT 57
Tract: ANTHEM UNIT 57
The price of this listing was last increased on 5/18/2019 by 0%
Status: Active


Welcome to your new home! This beautiful home offers an updated kitchen with Granite counters and updated backsplash.The kitchen opens to a spacious family room opening to a covered patio. The backyard lot is larger than most being on the corner. Local traffic only into this community. You will love easy to maintain landscaping. The garage includes attached cabinets for additional storage. Located in a neighborhood within the beautiful community of Anthem. Close to Anthem Outlets, amazing parks, pools, community centers, more shopping, dining and much much more! Listed by an area expert.

Listed with RE/MAX Professionals


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$199,000 :: 3202 W ACAPULCO Lane, Phoenix AZ, 85053

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,405 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 05/17/19, Last Updated: 05/18/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5927717
Community: COUNTRY GABLES
Tract: COUNTRY GABLES
Status: Active


Single family home in a great central location in Phoenix! The home is minutes away from the I-17, near endless restaurants, grocery stores, , Cave Creek Park and Golf Course, and much more!! The home is in a non-HOA community, single story, has a front porch, security front door, laminate wood and tile flooring, a spacious kitchen with a breakfast bar, stainless steel appliances and a gas range. There is a large dining/breakfast room off of the kitchen, French doors that lead out to the backyard, spacious bedrooms, an en-suite bathroom off of one of the bedrooms, and much more. The backyard is huge, has a covered patio and plenty of room for customization, it is a blank canvas!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$279,500 :: 6539 W ROOSEVELT Street, Phoenix AZ, 85043

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,568 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,940 sq ft
Added: 04/05/19, Last Updated: 05/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5907228
Community: SUNBURST FARMS SOUTH
Tract: SUNBURST FARMS SOUTH
The price of this listing was last reduced on 5/17/2019 by 0%
Status: Active


Rancho Home Available, Horse property! 4 bed 2 bath with a guest house in the back. Horse stalls. this house has it all and Looks good. Don't miss out on this opportunity!. Submit your offer ASAP won't last long.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$240,000 :: 13827 N 37TH Place, Phoenix AZ, 85032

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,385 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 05/17/19, Last Updated: 05/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5927650
Community: PARADISE VALLEY OASIS 3
Tract: PARADISE VALLEY OASIS 3
Status: Active


Endless Potential! Amazing opportunity for you to live in the neighborhood of Paradise Valley Oasis and within the PV school district. Traditional ranch style home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, with a pool (As-Is) and a garage. New A/C. Living Room features large sliding door overlooking backyard with covered patio. Very private backyard with pool makes this a great place to spend your free time once you get it just the way you like it. You will want to put your special touches on this home and make it your own. This is truly diamond in the rough; there is endless potential with this home. Don't overlook this gem, book a showing today!

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$225,000 :: 6313 W FLORENCE Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85043

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,744 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 05/17/19, Last Updated: 05/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5927631
Community: MEADOWS
Tract: MEADOWS
Status: Active


Beautiful Home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms,spacious floor plan with carpet and tile,satin nickel fans, fixtures and hardware,kitchen opens to formal dining room and showcase stainless steel appliances,upstairs master bedroom suite features double doors entrance,walki-n closet and private bath,cover patio and barbeque space.close to schools and shopping.

Listed with RE/MAX Professionals


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,000,000 :: 1445 E VICTOR HUGO Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85022

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4 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 7,447 sq ft
Lot Size: 21,345 sq ft
Added: 05/17/19, Last Updated: 05/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5927405
Community: RESERVE AT MOONRIDGE GOLF ESTATES
Tract: RESERVE AT MOONRIDGE GOLF ESTATES
Status: Active


Rare opportunity to acquire a mountain top custom masterpiece at well below market value. Enjoy a glass of bubbly while sitting on one of your two viewing decks - all while capturing the breathtaking mountain views of Shaw Butte. The lower level kitchen and full wet bar is perfect for entertaining friends, family, and distinguished guests. Witness the commanding prestige the moment you step inside. Equipped with three master bedrooms, 7400+ square feet of living space, four fireplaces, a theatre, office, and a six car garage - this custom manor is a true masterpiece. Rivaling the world's most exclusive restaurants, the master chef's kitchen is a dream come true, boasting double ovens, ample counter space and tranquil views of the surrounding scenery. Indoor and outdoor spaces seamlessly.

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$210,000 :: 17671 W DESERT BLOOM Street, Goodyear AZ, 85338

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,798 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 03/30/19, Last Updated: 05/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5903894
Community: CANYON TRAILS UNIT 4 WEST PARCEL G1
Tract: CANYON TRAILS UNIT 4 WEST PARCEL G1
Status: Active


Awesome 4 bedroom home for sale in Goodyear on corner lot in desirable Canyon Trails! Close to community park. Great for kids and pets to run around. House is in need of some minor fixup.

Listed with Conway Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$499,000 :: 34723 N 140TH Street, Scottsdale AZ, 85262

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3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,520 sq ft
Lot Size: 87,120 sq ft
Added: 03/14/19, Last Updated: 05/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5896331
Community: Metes & Bounds
Tract: Metes & Bounds
Status: Active


Take a look at this wonderful house located on 2 acres. Large open home with incredible views from every room. Kitchen open to the family room with built in shelving and fireplace. Separate living room with wet bar and fireplace as well as a den. 3 split bedrooms. There is a huge master bedroom with fireplace and walk out to the expansive back yard, huge walk in closet with natural light, two vanities, separate shower and Jacuzzi tub. Both additional bedrooms have ensuite baths. The perfect 4 car garage with lots of storage and work space.

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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