Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$495,410 :: 3430 N MOUNTAIN Ridge #69, Mesa AZ, 85207

5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,275 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,939 sq ft
Added: 04/26/18, Last Updated: 04/26/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5757110
Community: SONORAN HEIGHTS UNIT 1 AT LAS
Tract: SONORAN HEIGHTS UNIT 1 AT LAS
Status: Active




Listed with 1st Class Property Experts, LLC.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$255,000 :: 9130 W VIRGINIA Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85037

4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,568 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,969 sq ft
Added: 04/26/18, Last Updated: 04/26/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5757021
Community: SHEELY FARMS PARCEL 10
Tract: SHEELY FARMS PARCEL 10
Status: Active


Despite HOT market seller is willing to help with $2000 towards buyers closing costs. Gorgeous 4 bedroom - 2.5 bath home w/large loft. This well kept home offers Formal Living & Dining rooms. Open, Eat-in Kitchen features Tile Flooring, Bay Window,Breakfast Bar& Walk-in Pantry. Large Master suite has sitting area w/Bay Window. Backyard has large extended patio in a Faux Flagstone, plus grassy area. Located minutes from 101 Freeway & Glendale's Westgate

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$267,650 :: 916 W SILVER CREEK Road, Gilbert AZ, 85233

3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,511 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,227 sq ft
Added: 04/26/18, Last Updated: 04/26/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5757053
Community: DAVE BROWN UNIT 5
Tract: DAVE BROWN UNIT 5
Status: Active


Bright and open single story home on a nice lot with mature shade trees.Property features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a nice open kitchen with casual diningand a bay window, and a large living room with fireplace. The home could use a little updating but would be a real gem with a little work.

Listed with Real Home Services & Solutions


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$327,000 :: 17668 W POLARIS Drive, Goodyear AZ, 85338

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,649 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,583 sq ft
Added: 04/25/18, Last Updated: 04/25/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5756753
Community: SUNCHASE AT ESTRELLA PARCEL NO
Tract: SUNCHASE AT ESTRELLA PARCEL NO
Status: Active


Great home in the highly sought after Estrella Mountain Ranch! This home is complete with 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, great room, eat-in kitchen, and Master Bedroom downstairs. The laundry room has built-in cabinets, and exterior huge loft and great office area. The backyard patio The upstairs features 3 bedrooms, a has a pool with waterfall. Community has lakes , clubhouse, dinning, shopping, walking trails, golf and so much more. Tenants rights

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$210,000 :: 4285 E WHITEHALL Drive, San Tan Valley AZ, 85140

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,797 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,969 sq ft
Added: 04/11/18, Last Updated: 04/25/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5750074
Community: CASTLEGATE PARCEL 5
Tract: CASTLEGATE PARCEL 5
Status: Active


Beautiful 4 bed plus loft 2 bath home in San Tan Valley! Spacious eat-in kitchen with gas range, large pantry, and abundant cabinetry for storage. Downstairs master bedroom features walk in closet, dual vanity, and separate shower/soaking tub. Upstairs you'll find large secondary bedrooms with plenty of closet space, loft, and laundry. One of the bedrooms features an oversized walk in closet & could be used as a second master bedroom. The home features carpet throughout with tile flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms, ceiling fans in all rooms, & security door. Great backyard with 2 extended covered patios, additional paved seating space, & yard ready for your design! Castlegate boasts children's play areas, biking/ walking paths, & schools within walking distance. Don't miss this one!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$306,000 :: 998 E SCORPIO Place, Chandler AZ, 85249

Property Photo

Mls Icon

3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,049 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 03/24/18, Last Updated: 04/25/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5741897
Community: PASEO CROSSING
Tract: PASEO CROSSING
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/25/2018 by 1%
Status: Active


FORECLOSURE DATE IS MAY 7 ON A SETERUS LOAN AND WILL NOT BE POSTPONED, WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CASH OFFER WITH A QUICK CLOSE, THERE ARE TWO LOANS AND BOTH SHOULD BE PAID OFF AROUND THIS PRICE,

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$299,900 :: 12033 W ASHBY Drive, Peoria AZ, 85383

Property Photo

Mls Icon

5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,822 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,969 sq ft
Added: 02/01/18, Last Updated: 04/25/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5717423
Community: VISTANCIA VILLAGE A PARCEL A15
Tract: VISTANCIA VILLAGE A PARCEL A15
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/25/2018 by 3%
Status: Active


Like new 2 story floor plan in a community full of amenities! With it's tall ceilings and open concept this ​gorgeous home is set up to entertain with a large kitchen and oversized living room. Huge backyard and plenty of room for a pool. Community located in award winning school district and it's convenient location makes it easy to travel up north or to nearby Lake Pleasant!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$114,000 :: 3918 W CYPRESS Street, Phoenix AZ, 85009

Property Photo

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3 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 1,000 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,098 sq ft
Added: 03/14/18, Last Updated: 04/25/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5736730
Community: DEL MONTE VILLAGE 5
Tract: DEL MONTE VILLAGE 5
Status: Active


Three bedrooms, one bath, and a large lot make up this beauty! Upon entry there is a DEN or storage room. There is a dining area just off the kitchen. The backyard is an oversized backyard with a large gate for access to the alley. Nearby there is easy access to Sueno Park, I10, and I17. One bedroom currently used as a den.

Listed with Arizona Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$150,000 :: 562 N RUBEL Court, Buckeye AZ, 85326

Property Photo

Mls Icon

3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,360 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,662 sq ft
Added: 04/24/18, Last Updated: 04/24/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5756269
Community: NARRAMORE ESTATES
Tract: NARRAMORE ESTATES
Status: Active


ATTENTION INVESTORS! This 3 bed, 2 bath Buckeye property has huge potential. Vaulted ceilings, good sized great room, spacious master bedroom w/ walk in closet, and covered patio. Quick close needed so cash offers only!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Phoenix


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$215,000 :: 4130 W HAYWARD Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85051

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,206 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,276 sq ft
Added: 04/24/18, Last Updated: 04/24/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5756228
Community: NORTHERN PALMS 2
Tract: NORTHERN PALMS 2
Status: Active


Lovely home centrally located just 2 miles from I-17 corridor. Home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Solid surface flooring throughout home is perfect for an allergen free home. Large living room with fireplace for intimate winter evenings. Large fenced pool makes for a perfect yard enjoy the Arizona summers. Beautifully landscaped. Home is close to local parks, schools, and more.

Listed with Cerreta Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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