Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$182,000 :: 2271 W BOWKER Street, Phoenix AZ, 85041

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,550 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,969 sq ft
Added: 08/03/18, Last Updated: 11/18/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5802275
Community: PARK PHOENIX 3
Tract: PARK PHOENIX 3
The price of this listing was last increased on 11/18/2018 by 4%
Status: Active


Great investment opportunity with instant equity. Don't miss this opportunity to fix and flip. Seller motivated. To conventional loans offers the seller will install the flooring and comply with conventional guidelines.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$349,900 :: 17916 N 183RD Avenue, Surprise AZ, 85374

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,366 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,662 sq ft
Added: 10/15/18, Last Updated: 11/18/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5833562
Community: BELL POINTE 1
Tract: BELL POINTE 1
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/18/2018 by 4%
Status: Active


Large 5 bedroom with bedroom and full bath downstairs. The home has a formal Livingroom, family room and eat in kitchen. The carpet has been replaced. All faucets and fixtures have been changed to oil rubbed bronze. The home has a pool- large 3 car garage with service door. Spacious master suite with large bathroom that includes separate tub/shower and dual vanity. 2 walk in closets. The kitchen has corion countertops and new stainless appliance, large pantry, oil rubbed bronze handles and knobs. Don't miss this opportunity to own this beautiful home. Close to schools, shopping and Loop 303.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$210,000 :: 6412 W HILTON Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85043

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,535 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 11/12/18, Last Updated: 11/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5846169
Community: PARK AT TERRALEA
Tract: PARK AT TERRALEA
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/17/2018 by 5%
Status: Active


This is the one you have been waiting for! Beautiful single story home sits on a large corner lot. North/South facing. Great Curb appeal! Large courtyard, sunscreen and mature landscaping are just a few upgrades. Inside you will find a large great room with vaulted ceilings. Split floor plan. Master bedroom is large with big walk in closet and master bathroom with dual sinks and separate tub and shower. Eat in Kitchen with island and built in microwave. Formal Dining room is off the great room. Covered patio and TONS of space in back! Only One house from a greenbelt/park area.

Listed with Keller Williams Legacy One


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$173,000 :: 341 LEISURE WORLD --, Mesa AZ, 85206

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,584 sq ft
Lot Size: 1,742 sq ft
Added: 11/17/18, Last Updated: 11/17/18
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5848360
Community: ROSSMOOR LEISURE WORLD GOLDEN
Tract: ROSSMOOR LEISURE WORLD GOLDEN
Status: Active


2 bedroom/2 bath home that borders common area in active adult community of Leisure World. Close to lake and walking paths. Community features include guarded entry and golf course.Proper features include ceiling fans, bonus room, garage parking, lots of storage and tile floors. This remarkable property is available for immediate sale. The seller is very responsive and the property is a perfect opportunity. Take advantage of this amazing opportunity.

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$225,000 :: 4758 E LONGHORN Street, San Tan Valley AZ, 85140

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,401 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,098 sq ft
Added: 11/17/18, Last Updated: 11/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5847496
Community: LAREDO RANCH UNIT 2
Tract: LAREDO RANCH UNIT 2
Status: Active


Fantastic neighborhood awaits. This home sits in the heart of Laredo Ranch. Multiple upgrades throughout including wooden floors, decorative faux stone and more. Large relaxing backyard with a Gazeebo to shade you from afternoon sun. Home owners poured a lot into this home when they bought it. Large open spaces makes it nice for separating rooms but affords the open plan kitchen that so many want. Upstairs offers a large landing/loft area which offers endless possibilities. Each bedroom is well appointed in space and distance from the other. Priced well under market. Come check out the possibilities before it's gone!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$332,000 :: 1470 E CARLA VISTA Drive, Chandler AZ, 85225

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,285 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 07/21/18, Last Updated: 11/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5796597
Community: TRADITION UNIT 3
Tract: TRADITION UNIT 3
The price of this listing was last increased on 10/23/2018 by 2%
Status: Active


APPROVED SHORT SALE, AT 332,000. Quick close!!! BUYER FINANCING FAILED!!! OFFERS WANTED, QUICK Gorgeous and well maintained 5 bed, 3 bath home with pool. 2 master bedrooms! Large Master bed features vaulted ceilings, 5 piece master bath with soaking tub and walk in closet. Great community and NO HOA! Home has a great layout. Island kitchen with lots of cabinets, vaulted ceilings, and ceiling fans. Storage shed, RV Gated parking, pebble pool. Patio is insulated and screened. Stove is both gas and electric! Close to everything! Hurry this one won't last long!

Listed with Sonoran Premier Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$502,900 :: 5413 E HARMONY Avenue, Mesa AZ, 85206

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,870 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,018 sq ft
Added: 11/16/18, Last Updated: 11/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5848150
Community: Stonegate Estates
Tract: Stonegate Estates
Status: Active


Super spacious 5BR, 3.5 BA home with tons of entertaining space - Living Room, Dining Room, Family Room and Loft upstairs. Master Bedroom is downstairs with door to backyard; Big backyard with pool and spa; 3 car garage and RV gate. Close to shopping, freeways and schools. Great REO property with tons of potential.

Listed with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$179,900 :: 3726 E OAK Street, Phoenix AZ, 85008

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3 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 1,130 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,098 sq ft
Added: 10/03/18, Last Updated: 11/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5828121
Community: NORTH EAST VILLAGE 1
Tract: NORTH EAST VILLAGE 1
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/16/2018 by 10%
Status: Active


Discounted for Condition. Rehabs go for over $400K. Property is very rough andpriced accordingly. No Low Ball Offers. Buyers must personally visit home priorto making offer.INVESTOR SPECIAL! PRIME AREA! NEEDS CONSIDERABLE WORK, BUT GREAT BONES AND GREAT AREA! COME AND BUY THIS ONE!

Listed with MUNRO REALTY INTERNATIONAL


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$435,000 :: 22029 N 51ST Street, Phoenix AZ, 85054

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,121 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,276 sq ft
Added: 09/11/18, Last Updated: 11/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5818728
Community: DESERT RIDGE LOT 24
Tract: DESERT RIDGE LOT 24
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/31/2018 by 5%
Status: Active


Large golf course view lot. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in gated Glen Eagle subdivision. Open floor plan, tile floors throughout the major areas. Master bedroom is split from other bedrooms and features a very deep custom Roman tub. Kitchen features a gas range, breakfast bar and eat in area. Covered Patio opens up to large lot. Heated Pool to enjoy any type of weather! Home in need of remodeling.

Listed with International Real Estate Professionals, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$128,000 :: 2221 E WIER Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85040

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,849 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,969 sq ft
Added: 11/16/18, Last Updated: 11/16/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5848110
Community: SHERATON PARK 1
Tract: SHERATON PARK 1
Status: Active


PRICED FOR IMMEDIATE SALE! ATTENTION ALL INVESTORS & FIX UP BUYERS! EXCELLENT BUYER FIX UP OPPORTUNITY IN HIGH DEMAND SOUTH PHOENIX MARKET SERVICE AREA. NO HOA! PROPERTY IS LOCATED ON NICE INTERIOR STREET WITH PREFERRED N/S CORNER LOT. THIS RANCH STYLE PROPERTY OFFERS TERRIFIC UPSIDE & POTENTIAL AFTER NEW BUYER REMODELS & UPDATES. FLOOR PLAN FEATURES 4 BEDROOMS & 2 BATHS, REAR LIVING ROOM, FRONT KITCHEN & DINING, BONUS ROOM OFF KITCHEN, FORMAL DINING, INSIDE WASHER & DRYER HOOK-UP, 1 CAR CARPORT, REAR TUFF SHED, & MORE! SUBMIT ALL CASH ONLY OFFERS NOW FOR SELLER REVIEW AND APPROVAL.

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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