Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$625,000 :: 10040 E HAPPY VALLEY Road #330, Scottsdale AZ, 85255

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3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,559 sq ft
Lot Size: 29,186 sq ft
Added: 07/10/19, Last Updated: 07/20/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5950399
Community: DESERT HIGHLANDS PHASE 1
Tract: DESERT HIGHLANDS PHASE 1
The price of this listing was last increased on 7/16/2019 by 8%
Status: Active


Investment Opportunity. This home is eligible for the Residential Remodel Program thru the Desert Highland's HOA. This will allow an investor to purchase this home, complete the remodel and resell without having to pay the $75K club membership fee. This home has beautiful potential but currently lots of deferred maintenance and no upgrades with the finishes or amenities. This property will be sold as is. Contact Erica for more details!

Listed with RE/MAX Fine Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$210,000 :: 2890 S 161 Avenue, Goodyear AZ, 85338

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,522 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 07/09/19, Last Updated: 07/20/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5949826
Community: Sarival Village
Tract: Sarival Village
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/20/2019 by 7%
Status: Active


A well maintained 3 Bedroom 2 bath home with plenty of Space. Enjoy the Solar maintain this home at 72 Degrees with an APS bill of 150 to include the lease of the solar panels.

Listed with Above and Beyond Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$419,000 :: 1515 E BERRIDGE Lane, Phoenix AZ, 85014

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,000 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,197 sq ft
Added: 04/18/19, Last Updated: 07/20/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5913417
Community: ROSE GARDENS 2
Tract: ROSE GARDENS 2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/20/2019 by 1%
Status: Active


***PREFORECLOSURE FLIP ON CUL-DE-SAC LOT WITH $200,000 SPREAD***BUY IT NOW PRICED AT $419,000. SURROUNDED BY HOMES AS HIGH AS $800,000. This unique location features lots of square footage and great bones. Main house is 3/2 w/office and then you'll find an additional apartment/attached guesthouse with 1/1, family room and eat-in kitchen. Neutral colors, laminate and concrete floors. 2-car garage and large grassy backyard. This neighborhood has sales in the mid-$600,000 range for similar lots and house size. Main house has separate living room. Kitchen overlooks family room.***IMPORTANT***ALL OFFERS WILL BE REVIEWED ON 7/30/2019 OR ''BUY IT NOW FOR $419,000 - MUST BE AS-IS, QUICK CLOSE. BUYER MUST BE REPRESENTED BY A LICENSED REAL ESTATE AGENT IN ARIZONA.

Listed with Bellamak Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$209,900 :: 3445 N 36th Street #48, Phoenix AZ, 85018

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,250 sq ft
Lot Size: 872 sq ft
Added: 06/28/19, Last Updated: 07/19/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5946085
Community: ROSE GARDEN CONDOMINIUM
Tract: ROSE GARDEN CONDOMINIUM
Status: Active


ARCADIA! Absolute Bargain! Unbelievable Price! Priced low and firm for your pre-approved Buyer who wants the best home in the neighborhood. Hurry it won't last long at this low low price, so do your Buyer a favor and write me a squeaky clean full price offer today and save your self all the fun of a full price counter offer.

Listed with RE/MAX Fine Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$654,000 :: 8548 N FARVIEW Drive, Scottsdale AZ, 85258

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,852 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,277 sq ft
Added: 05/22/19, Last Updated: 07/19/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5929556
Community: EASTWOOD AMD
Tract: EASTWOOD AMD
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/19/2019 by 4%
Status: Active


Extensive remodel with 4 br's and a loft in beautiful Gainey Ranch. The kitchen, bathrooms, laundry and wine room have custom shaker cabinets and quartz countertops. The home has new tile downstairs and new carpet upstairs, new paint, new appliances, ceiling fans, 84 new can lights, washer/dryer, new windows and countless additional upgrades. Located within a great school district with HOA fees of just $30 per month. A beautiful renovated home for just $242 per square foot! Act quickly.

Listed with Homie


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$154,900 :: 29606 N TATUM Boulevard #203, Cave Creek AZ, 85331

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1 bed, 1 bath
Home size: 858 sq ft
Lot Size: 872 sq ft
Added: 07/19/19, Last Updated: 07/19/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5954517
Community: TERRA VISTA AT TATUM RANCH CONDOMINIUMS
Tract: TERRA VISTA AT TATUM RANCH CONDOMINIUMS
Status: Active


Beautiful Tatum Ranch Condo in a well kept, gated community. Some amenities include gorgeous pool, gym, and a clubhouse. There are many shade trees and grassy areas to enjoy within the community. The location of this unit is perfect with only one shared common wall and just above the one car garage parking! Walking into this lovely home you are welcomed by 10ft ceilings and a large open area perfect for making it your own! The kitchen has an island and breakfast bar to enjoy with all new appliances. The balcony is shaded by large trees. The gas appliances help cut down on the electric bill. There is a walk-in closet in the bathroom. Nearby there is easy access to Tatum Ranch Golf Club, many different trailheads and lots of shopping or dining options.

Listed with Arizona Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$317,000 :: 6402 W Escuda Road, Glendale AZ, 85308

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,968 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,584 sq ft
Added: 06/05/19, Last Updated: 07/19/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5935335
Community: HIGHLAND AT ARROWHEAD RANCH
Tract: HIGHLAND AT ARROWHEAD RANCH
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/19/2019 by 0%
Status: Active


ARROWHEAD RANCH INVESTOR SPECIAL! This 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home, XL LOT. Nice kitchen counters with tile backsplash. Really nice floor plan with living room, formal dining room, family room, eat-in kitchen with pantry. Large master bedroom with big walk-in closet. XL Large lot with mature fruit trees, lush landscaping with brick walkway. Large open concrete patio with built in bar-b-que in rear yard for entertaining or storage. Grass front and rear yards with sprinkler system. Double garage with cabinets and new garage door. The home peaceful and quiet, street. wonderful community close to everything!

Listed with Vista Bonita Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$195,000 :: 25416 W CARSON Drive, Buckeye AZ, 85326

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,553 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 06/21/19, Last Updated: 07/19/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5943195
Community: BLUE HILLS
Tract: BLUE HILLS
The price of this listing was last increased on 7/19/2019 by 3%
Status: Active


Amazing deal!! Single family home that has gorgeous curb appeal, an RV gate, easy to maintain landscaping, oversized tile floors with carpet only in the desirable locations, a dining/breakfast room, a spacious kitchen with granite countertops, upgraded cabinetry and a breakfast bar, a spacious family room with a modern ceiling fan, a large master bedroom with an en suite bathroom and a separate tub and walk in shower and a walk-in closet. There is an interior laundry room, spacious guest bedrooms and much more! The backyard is HUGE and features an extended covered patio with an outdoor ceiling fan, an additional paved patio and a huge grassy area! There is plenty of room to build a pool!!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$155,000 :: 9414 N 11th Place, Phoenix AZ, 85020

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 864 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 06/28/19, Last Updated: 07/19/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5945875
Community: UPSHAW DESERT VIEW
Tract: UPSHAW DESERT VIEW
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/19/2019 by 6%
Status: Active


Great home for any buyer, nice 2 Bedroom 1 Bathroom near stores, Schools and much more. Looking for a fast close, must have sold by August 9th, 2019.

Listed with neXGen Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$399,900 :: 22473 S 204TH Street, Queen Creek AZ, 85142

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,592 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,277 sq ft
Added: 05/02/19, Last Updated: 07/19/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5919607
Community: MONTELENA
Tract: MONTELENA
The price of this listing was last reduced on 7/19/2019 by 4%
Status: Active


Features for this spacious Queen Creek home include 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, formal living room & dining room, family room downstairs + upstairs game room, soaring vaulted ceilings, tile flooring, granite countertops & maple cabinets with crown molding in the kitchen, island & breakfast room, sitting room & walk-in closet in the master bedroom, double sinks in the master bath, covered patio, cul-de-sac lot, 3 car tandem garage, courtyard with pavers & exterior fireplace and more! Take a look!! **NEW AC UNIT & THERMOSTAT RECENTLY INSTALLED! [UPSTAIRS UNIT]**

Listed with A.Z. & Associates Real Estate Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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