Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$300,000 :: 6539 W ROOSEVELT Street, Phoenix AZ, 85043

4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,568 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,940 sq ft
Added: 11/21/19, Last Updated: 11/21/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6007384
Community: SUNBURST FARMS SOUTH
Tract: SUNBURST FARMS SOUTH
Status: Active


Amazing horse property at a great price. 4 bd 2 bath, with a back yard studio! Horse friendy neighborhood. 2 RV gates and lots of space. come check it out before it's gone!

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$749,000 :: 30600 N Pima Road #56A, Scottsdale AZ, 85266

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3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 7,650 sq ft
Lot Size: 106,287 sq ft
Added: 11/21/19, Last Updated: 11/21/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6007361
Community: Sincuidados
Tract: Sincuidados
Status: Active


Outstanding opportunity on this Lender Owned property. Interior has been demo'ed. Potential lot split pending with City and HOA. Rehab the existing home, split the lot and build a new home or raze the existing home and build two new homes. New homes on the same street are selling for $1.7 to $1.8 million. Architectural plans may be available from Scott R. Lentz Design. Located in sought-after guard gated community of Sincuidados. Seller may carry. Property is being sold 'As-Is' with no repairs. Seller has never occupied the premises and has limited information regarding it. Seller makes no representations or warranties including but not limited to, the condition of the property, permits, potential lot split, city violations, HOA violations, building plans, facts, figures and measurements.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$70,300 :: 6818 N 35th Avenue #A, Phoenix AZ, 85017

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1 bed, 1 bath
Home size: 644 sq ft
Lot Size: 872 sq ft
Added: 10/17/19, Last Updated: 11/21/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5993297
Community: CASA DOMANI
Tract: CASA DOMANI
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/21/2019 by 5%
Status: Active


Cute place great location and even better price. This is an end unit. Check out this 1 bed and 1 bath with community pool and reasonable HOA fees. Nice greenbelt just outside the door and large storage area on the patio.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$270,000 :: 1437 S COCHISE Street, Mesa AZ, 85204

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3 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 1,590 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 11/20/19, Last Updated: 11/20/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6006889
Community: Southern Manor
Tract: Southern Manor
Status: Active


This home presents a great opportunity for buyers to update and customize to their liking, but is also move-in ready. Featuring 3 Bedrooms/1.75 bath, 2 car garage and an RV Gate! Located on a quiet street yet close to parks, schools, restaurants, freeways and more! NO HOA

Listed with Arizona Best Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$89,000 :: 3601 W TIERRA BUENA Lane #230, Phoenix AZ, 85053

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 784 sq ft
Lot Size: 872 sq ft
Added: 11/13/19, Last Updated: 11/20/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6004184
Community: Avalon Hills
Tract: Avalon Hills
Status: Active


Great second story unit with balcony. Very spacious. Newer floors and counter tops. Awesome amenities include: swimming pool & spa, tennis court, and fitness center.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$170,050 :: 10520 W LOMA BLANCA Drive, Sun City AZ, 85351

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,694 sq ft
Lot Size: 436 sq ft
Added: 07/26/19, Last Updated: 11/20/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5957106
Community: SUN CITY 34A
Tract: SUN CITY 34A
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/20/2019 by 5%
Status: Active


Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath twin home located in Sun City. The home has tile flooring in living, kitchen, walkways and family room with fireplace. Large kitchen with white cabinets, all black appliances wood like flooring . Both bedrooms are large and have walk in closets. Backyard fenced in with a large covered patio. Large garage with built in cabinets and room for a golf cart. Sun City community features Biking/Walking Path; Clubhouse/Rec Room; Comm Tennis Court(s); Community Media Room; Community Pool; Community Pool Htd; Community Spa; Community Spa Htd; Golf Course; Workout Facility. Close to Westgate, Cardinals football stadium, Hockey Phoenix stadium, dining, Peoria sport complex Arrowhead mall, Loop 101, US 60 - NO Rentals allowed

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$149,900 :: 10212 W CAMPANA Drive, Sun City AZ, 85351

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2 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 1,210 sq ft
Lot Size: 436 sq ft
Added: 10/30/19, Last Updated: 11/20/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5998243
Community: SUN CITY 36
Tract: SUN CITY 36
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/20/2019 by 3%
Status: Active


This townhouse is just what you've been looking for...priced right, spacious living area, 2 beds and 2 baths, large enclosed patio, additional garage storage, good condition. Don't delay, see it today.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$419,000 :: 7676 W DONALD Drive, Peoria AZ, 85383

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5 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,287 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 11/19/19, Last Updated: 11/19/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6006716
Community: FLETCHER HEIGHTS
Tract: FLETCHER HEIGHTS
Status: Active


Need space? Come see this 5 bed, 2.5 bath, plus an office, formal living/dining, family room & loft. Eat in kitchen has tons of cabinets w/ SS appliances, gas stove, corian counters, breatkfast bar, pantry & built in desk space. Kitchen opens to living room which has built in entertainment niche & fireplace. Powder/guest bath downstairs. Upstairs you will find all the bedrooms & laundry room w/sink for convenience & ease. Tile in all the right places. The best part is out back. Extended length covered patio with built in BBQ & Mini fridge. Gorgeous pool w/ beautiful rock water feature, baja table, bball hoop & extended flagstone. There is also an above ground spa. RV Gate & extended driveway provide extra parking space. Close to schools, parks, restaurants & only mins. to Lake Pleasant.

Listed with RETHINK Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$275,000 :: 7024 S 19TH Street, Phoenix AZ, 85042

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4 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 2,220 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,584 sq ft
Added: 11/19/19, Last Updated: 11/19/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6006671
Community: MOUNTAIN VIEW ESTATES UNIT 2
Tract: MOUNTAIN VIEW ESTATES UNIT 2
Status: Active


Great opportunity for a family looking to finish a home to their liking in South Mountain Park. Will need some finishing sheetrock & cabinets. This house is being sold as-is. This home has an extended covered-patio, 3 car garage and RV Gate. NO HOA! Short commute to SMCC, South Mountain Village, South Mountain hiking and freeway access!

Listed with Stunning Homes Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$108,900 :: 421 S ROLFS Avenue, Mammoth AZ, 85618

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3 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 1,566 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,890 sq ft
Added: 10/18/19, Last Updated: 11/19/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5993814
Community: LITTLE HOLLYWOOD ADDITION
Tract: LITTLE HOLLYWOOD ADDITION
Status: Active


Lots of possibilities for this charming home located in Mammoth! Brand new electrical panel, gas range in the kitchen and block construction - corner lot gives you privacy too. Don't miss out on this opportunity!

Listed with RE/MAX Casa Grande


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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