Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$399,900 :: 38446 N SPUR CROSS Road, Cave Creek AZ, 85331

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,848 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,939 sq ft
Added: 09/20/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5662876
Community: MOUNTAIN VIEW SUB
Tract: MOUNTAIN VIEW SUB
Status: Active


Fantastic location within walking distance of many of the restaurants in the town of Cave Creek! This home backs the Rancho Manana Golf Course driving range, rather than another home. Enjoy mountain views, sunsets, and a sparking pebble tec pool, featuring a waterfall, cave and built in slide! Mature landscaping, circular driveway, a large that is zoned multi family, and a layout that is great for entertaining guests, grab this one and update it to your tastes before it's off the market!***See Realtor Remarks for access information. Buyer to verify all facts, figures, measurements and HOA related fees. Property sold as-is!*** Seller is offering a $500 home warranty credit if the buyer is an owner occupant!***

Listed with Olson Gough


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$231,000 :: 34962 N CAMP FIRE Circle, Queen Creek AZ, 85142

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,789 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 09/20/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5662849
Community: MORNING SUN FARMS PHASE 2
Tract: MORNING SUN FARMS PHASE 2
Status: Active


SPACIOUS HOME WITH OVER 2700 SF, GREAT LENDER OWNED PROPERTY!!! 4 BEDROOMS WITH 2.5 BATHS WITH FORMAL LIVING & DINING ROOM AND FAMILY ROOM. NICE KITCHEN WITH STAINLESS APPLIANCES.THE MASTER BEDROOM HAS DOUBLE DOORS, THE MASTER BATH HAS A SEPARATE TUB SHOWER AND A WALK-IN CLOSET. THERE IS A REAR COVERED PATIO, A LARGE BACK YARD AND A 3 CAR GARAGE. HURRY THIS ONE WILL NOT LAST. PROPERTY IS SOLD IN AS IS CONDITIONS WITH NO SPDS OR CLUE REPORT. BUYER TO VERIFY ALL MAJOR FACTS AND MEASUREMENTS.

Listed with DA FA Realty & Investments


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$480,000 :: 23116 N PADARO Court, Sun City West AZ, 85375

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,027 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,939 sq ft
Added: 09/20/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5662795
Community: CORTE BELLA COUNTRY CLUB AT SA
Tract: CORTE BELLA COUNTRY CLUB AT SA
Status: Active


Beautiful upgraded home in Corte Bella Country Club is a dream come true. Sitting on an oversized lot, this home has 3 bedrooms plus a double door den, 2 and a half bathrooms, and 3 car garage. Oversized guest bedrooms share a jack-n-jill style bathroom with double sinks and private bath. Extraordinary master suite has large walk in closet, garden tub, walk in shower, and double sinks. Home has formal living and dining room with kitchen open to the family room. Beautifully upgraded kitchen with wall oven and island. Mature easy care landscaping in the rear with covered patio to enjoy Arizona evenings. All located in a spectacular neighborhood with private pools and fitness center.

Listed with Cerreta Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$519,000 :: 3010 E CEDAR Drive, Chandler AZ, 85249

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,606 sq ft
Lot Size: 17,859 sq ft
Added: 08/24/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5651016
Community: MESQUITE GROVE ESTATES
Tract: MESQUITE GROVE ESTATES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/24/2017 by 5%
Status: Active


Please read the MLS complete. HUGE secluded lot!Employees and family members residing with employees of JPMorgan Chase Bank,N.A, its affiliates or subsidiaries are strictly prohibited from directly or indirectly purchasing any property owned by JPMorgan Chase Bank,N.A. Please READ through the MLS completely. As / IS sale, seller does NOT provide SPDS or CLUE disclosures. Buyer to verify all infoherein. DO NOT SUBMIT BLIND OFFERS!! Agent of record (not an associate) must register at the ARMLS box to validate the offer. Offers will otherwise be rejected as blind offers. It's usually best to TEXT with your questions. Cash offers must include updated proof of funds. Seller will NOT make repairs of any kind. Please do not adjust the thermosta

Listed with Merit Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$188,000 :: 10672 W ROSS Avenue, Peoria AZ, 85382

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2 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 1,320 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,939 sq ft
Added: 09/06/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5656729
Community: NORTH PARK-PHASE 1 AT VENTANA
Tract: NORTH PARK-PHASE 1 AT VENTANA
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/6/2017 by 1%
Status: Active


Bring all offers!! One of the largest lots in Ventana Lakes!2 bedroom with office/den which has a walk-in closet. Vaulted ceilings & ceiling fans thru out, two-panel doors, trigger handle hardware. Huge backyard with heated pool w/water feature & heated spa, built-in Gas BBQ & Kiva fireplace. Unobstructed views for some gorgeous sunsets. 2-car garage with built in cabs. Exterior painted 2016. Gas hot water & heat. Solar panels from Solar City-Buyer must qualify for lease. Bring highest & best offer.

Listed with Diamondback Realty LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$109,000 :: 921 W UNIVERSITY Drive #1142, Mesa AZ, 85201

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2 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,046 sq ft
Lot Size: 435 sq ft
Added: 09/20/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5662642
Community: DISCOVERY AT CONTINENTAL ORCHA
Tract: DISCOVERY AT CONTINENTAL ORCHA
Status: Active


This great 2 bedroom townhome that has tile on the first floor and features a nice fireplace in the great room. There is a good sized patio off the kitchen and dining area to enjoy the great Arizona weather! The kitchen is bright and light and includes a refrigerator. The bedrooms are decent sized and have vaulted ceilings. This location is close to shopping, restaurants, and the Mesa Arts Center and the Light Rail for convenience.

Listed with Respect Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$69,900 :: 1002 E OSBORN Road #A, Phoenix AZ, 85014

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1 bed, 1 bath
Home size: 678 sq ft
Lot Size: 871 sq ft
Added: 09/20/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5662595
Community: LE CONTINENTAL
Tract: LE CONTINENTAL
Status: Active


GREAT CENTRAL CORRIDOR LOCATION! VERY WELL KEPT COMMUNITY. 1 BEDROOM 1 BATH THAT CAN USE SOME UPDATING. UNIT DOES OFFERS CERAMIC TILE AND A PRIVATE PATIO THAT IS ONLY STEPS FROM PRIVATE ACCESS TO THE POOL!! HOA PAYS ALL THE UTILITIES. THIS COMPLEX IS CLOSE TO EVERYTHING THAT DOWNTOWN HAS TO OFFER!!!

Listed with Carrington Real Estate Services (US), LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$185,250 :: 34445 N MASHONA Trail, San Tan Valley AZ, 85143

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,051 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,227 sq ft
Added: 08/10/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5644738
Community: PARCEL 8 AT CIRCLE CROSS RANCH
Tract: PARCEL 8 AT CIRCLE CROSS RANCH
The price of this listing was last reduced on 8/10/2017 by 5%
Status: Active


THIS STUNNING THREE BEDROOM, TWO AND HALF BATH DYNAMO WILL SURELY THRILL AND DELIGHT! NESTLED ON A SENSATIONAL LOT IN A GREAT COMMUNITY AND LOADED WITH BEAUTIFUL TOUCHES. THIS HOME IS A MUST SEE! THERE IS A HUGE COVERED PATIO, WITH A WALK OUT DECK FROM THE MASTER. THERES A SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM AND A COZY DINNING ROOM. SIMPLY ONE OF THE NICEST HOMES YOU WILL FIND IN THIS PRICE RANGE! CALL YOUR REALTOR TODAY AND MAKE THIS HOUSE YOUR HOME!

Listed with Visionary Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$198,000 :: 7336 W CORDES Road, Phoenix AZ, 85043

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,835 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,276 sq ft
Added: 09/01/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5655011
Community: TRAVERTINE AT ESTRELLA VILLAGE
Tract: TRAVERTINE AT ESTRELLA VILLAGE
Status: Active


Located in the Travertine At Estrella II community in Phoenix, this home features 3 bedrooms + den that can be used as a 4th bedroom, spacious living room with vaulted ceilings, tile flooring & oak cabinets in the kitchen, island with breakfast bar, pantry & breakfast room, split master bedroom floor plan featuring walk-in closet, double sinks in the master bath, covered patio, swimming pool, desirable N/S exposure, 2 car garage and more! Take a look!

Listed with A.Z. & Associates Real Estate Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$238,500 :: 4384 E MORENCI Road, San Tan Valley AZ, 85143

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5 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 3,735 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,276 sq ft
Added: 09/20/17, Last Updated: 09/20/17
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5662526
Community: COPPER BASIN UNIT 4
Tract: COPPER BASIN UNIT 4
Status: Active


Lender Owned Home sold ''As Is'' without repairs or warranty.

Listed with Real Home Services & Solutions


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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