Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$262,200 :: 2753 E HOPE Street, Mesa AZ, 85213

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,832 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,454 sq ft
Added: 02/20/18, Last Updated: 02/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5725840
Community: CHATEAU D ARNETT 4 LOT 115-166
Tract: CHATEAU D ARNETT 4 LOT 115-166
Status: Active


3 bedroom/2 bath home in Chateau D'Arnett. Conveniently located near Loop 202, US-60 and schools. Home features include North/South exposure tile floors, private pool, fireplace, split floor plan, covered patio, RV gate, and a Master Bath with double sinks and separate tub & shower. This remarkable property is available for immediate sale. The seller is very responsive and the property is a perfect opportunity for all buyer types.

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$257,300 :: 2020 E CHICAGO Street, Chandler AZ, 85225

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,060 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 02/20/18, Last Updated: 02/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5725845
Community: COLONIA CORONITA UNIT 3
Tract: COLONIA CORONITA UNIT 3
Status: Active


3 bedroom/2 bath home in Colonia Coronita on large lot. Conveniently located near Loop 202. Home features North/South exposure, RV gate, covered patio, 2 storage sheds, garage parking, split floor plan, ceiling fans, brick fireplace and dual pane windows. This home has been remodeled from top to bottom and features a brand new roof, new flooring, new modern granite counters and stainless steel appliances. This remarkable property is available for immediate sale. The seller is very responsive and the property is a perfect opportunity for all buyer types.

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$43,100 :: 64 W CHORRITO Court, Queen Valley AZ, 85118

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 1,000 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,325 sq ft
Added: 01/26/18, Last Updated: 02/20/18
Property Type: Mobile/Manufactured
MLS Number: 5714627
Community: LAKEVIEW PARK NO. 2 AMD
Tract: LAKEVIEW PARK NO. 2 AMD
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/26/2018 by 21%
Status: Active


PRICED REDUCED - Queen Valley is situated in a Mountain Range with beautiful desert around it.Golf Course - Come out and see what you can enjoy during the winters in Az. 2 bedrooms 1 bath - Kitchen has newer kitchen cabinets and large eating area. Living room has a room added on with beautiful views out the windows. Other Extra room added on for whatever... AS IS Condition - no repairs

Listed with 1st Class Property Experts, LLC.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$337,000 :: 6787 W CHARTER OAK Road, Peoria AZ, 85381

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,674 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,227 sq ft
Added: 01/26/18, Last Updated: 02/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5714786
Community: PEORIA VILLAGE
Tract: PEORIA VILLAGE
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/26/2018 by 1%
Status: Active


Beautiful two story home in Peoria. Custom color palette flowing throughout. Eat in kitchen is complete with a plethora of custom cabinets, center island with breakfast bar, and black appliances. Large loft at top of stairs! Master suite has plush carpet, ceiling fan, and picture window. 3/4 bathroom with dual sink vanity and private toilet room. Spacious walk in closet! Fiber Optic Internet installed for faster internet. Backyard features a covered patio with lush green grass and plenty of room for entertaining. A lot of privacy with single story surrounding neighbors. Only 2 houses down from community park. This home is sure to go quick, so come see it today!

Listed with Century 21 Northwest


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$109,900 :: 29 W Whyman Avenue, Avondale AZ, 85323

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3 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 912 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,227 sq ft
Added: 12/05/17, Last Updated: 02/20/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5695096
Community: Avondale
Tract: Avondale
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/17/2018 by 6%
Status: Active


THE PRICE WILL MOVE YOU! 3 BEDROOMS, 1 BATHROOM*CARPORT SPACE*LARGE BACKYARD SPACE, ENDLESS POSSIBILITIES*A LITTLE TLC GOES A LONG WAY!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$159,900 :: 6109 E ELLIS Street, Mesa AZ, 85205

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2 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,302 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 01/13/18, Last Updated: 02/19/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5708812
Community: DREAMLAND VILLA 15
Tract: DREAMLAND VILLA 15
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/13/2018 by 5%
Status: Active


HURRY! Great home in Dreamland Villa. 2 bed with 1 full bath, one 3/4 bath and a half bath! Additional rooms are not included in the assessor square footage. This one has mature citrus trees and lots of potential. Close to shopping, Freeways and community amenities. This community has a voluntary HOA with access to pools and facilities. This is a lender owned property.

Listed with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$199,900 :: 28748 N APATITE Way, San Tan Valley AZ, 85143

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,837 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,147 sq ft
Added: 02/17/18, Last Updated: 02/18/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5725258
Community: THE VILLAGE AT COPPER BASIN UN
Tract: THE VILLAGE AT COPPER BASIN UN
Status: Active


Gorgeous San Tan Valley home with great curb appeal, plus new HVAC units, neutral interior colors, pool, dual sinks in master and large covered back patio. This one is missing the kitchen and is priced accordingly. Install the kitchen of your dreams! Seller will accept FHA 203K loans for buyers who wish to install a kitchen and go FHA! No FHA offers unless they are FHA 203K! ***See Realtor Remarks for access information. Buyer to verify all facts, figures, measurements and HOA related fees. Property sold as-is!*** Seller is offering a $500 home warranty credit if the buyer is an Owner Occupant Primary Residence buyer!!!

Listed with Olson Gough


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$330,000 :: 2807 E AVALON Drive, Phoenix AZ, 85016

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,425 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 02/17/18, Last Updated: 02/18/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5725249
Community: MOUNTAIN VIEW PARK PLAT 2 BLKS
Tract: MOUNTAIN VIEW PARK PLAT 2 BLKS
Status: Active


Beautiful home on large lot close to it all! Remodeled in 2015 it features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, an open floor plan, and an oversized backyard. Beautiful open kitchen with stainless steel appliances, oversized master bedroom, updated baths, laminate wood floors, and new roof in 2017! Great backyard with large paved covered patio, storage shed, fire pit, and RV gate. A definite must see!

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$375,000 :: 6611 E THUNDERBIRD Road, Scottsdale AZ, 85254

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,350 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,018 sq ft
Added: 02/17/18, Last Updated: 02/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5725071
Community: RASKIN EST 2 LTS 1-360, 367-40
Tract: RASKIN EST 2 LTS 1-360, 367-40
Status: Active


Location, Location, Location!! Lots of potential in one of Scottsdale's most desirable zip codes!!! Surrounded by shopping & dining at Kierland Commons and Scottsdale Quarter. This is a great opportunity to buy low in Scottsdale. With some love this home will be amazing. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths with large yard and pool.

Listed with Homesmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$144,900 :: 5416 W VIRGINIA Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85035

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,407 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,454 sq ft
Added: 02/17/18, Last Updated: 02/17/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5725054
Community: HOMESTEAD TERRACE 3
Tract: HOMESTEAD TERRACE 3
Status: Active


This home boasts mature shrubs and trees, plus a one car carport. The bedrooms are the perfect size with ample storage space. The galley kitchen has window that open to the family room or dining area. In the backyard enjoy the oversized corner lot with a swimming pool and large covered patio! Nearby there is easy access to major freeways including US60, I17, and I10. Plus there is the Grand Canyon Golf Course within a mile to enjoy and many shopping and dining options as well.

Listed with Arizona Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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