Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$325,000 :: 21 E 6TH Street #610, Tempe AZ, 85281

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1 bed, 1.5 baths
Home size: 1,342 sq ft
Lot Size: 0 sq ft
Added: 01/17/19, Last Updated: 01/17/19
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5869517
Community: LOFTS AT ORCHIDHOUSE CONDOMINIUM
Tract: LOFTS AT ORCHIDHOUSE CONDOMINIUM
Status: Active


Welcome home to this fun 1 bed, 1 bath condo right in the heart of Tempe, just off Mill Ave and overlooking the Union and ASU campus. This is urban living at its best. Walk outside the building to shopping, dining and much more. The home features a wide-open floorplan with endless possibilities. Phenomenal on-site security & assigned parking spaces on Level B2 of the underground parking garage. A short walk to many top Tempe restaurants, sporting events, entertainment & night life. Just minutes from ASU, Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe Town Lake & more!

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,250,000 :: 3756 N Wren Rock Court, Buckeye AZ, 85396

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5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 5,206 sq ft
Lot Size: 26,136 sq ft
Added: 01/17/19, Last Updated: 01/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5869576
Community: VERRADO PARCEL 5.804
Tract: VERRADO PARCEL 5.804
Status: Active


This One-Of-A-Kind custom masterpiece home represents the classic & authentic style of Rural Mediterranean architecture. Features include open great room and adjoining spacious kitchen and wet-bar, secret pantry, dedicated wine room, formal dining room, curved staircase with intricate inlaid tile and wrought iron railing, automatic disappearing window wall that lets the outdoors in on those beautiful Arizona days, private media room, casita with private entrance, gated heated pool, outdoor BBQ and fireplace, two balconies that overlook an open wash, golf course, mountain and city lights and professional outdoor landscaping with covered ramada. Property has 5,000+ sq ft with 5 bedrooms, 4.5 bathrooms, 4 car garage and much more. Sellers choice of title. No Spds and Clue report.

Listed with JM Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$194,500 :: 405 W LA MIRADA Drive, Phoenix AZ, 85041

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,701 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 11/30/18, Last Updated: 01/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5852442
Community: SOUTH MOUNTAIN HEIGHTS
Tract: SOUTH MOUNTAIN HEIGHTS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/17/2019 by 3%
Status: Active


Home in the South Mountain foothills of central Phoenix. 3BR 2BTH includes vaulted ceilings in family room, kitchen, and master bedroom. 16' tile in kitchen, utility room, and bathrooms. Back yard enclosed by block wall and offers spectacular views of South Mountain from the spacious covered patio.This home is located near South Mountain Park with beautiful mountain views.

Listed with Arizona Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,150,000 :: 24200 N ALMA SCHOOL Road #48/47, Scottsdale AZ, 85255

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5 beds, 5.5 baths
Home size: 7,280 sq ft
Lot Size: 72,309 sq ft
Added: 01/14/19, Last Updated: 01/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5862728
Community: SONORAN HIGHLANDS PHASE 2 AMD
Tract: SONORAN HIGHLANDS PHASE 2 AMD
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/17/2019 by 8%
Status: Active


Views, Views, Views. A rare private retreat with spectacular views from every room.Here is your opportunity to get into the exclusive gated community of Sonoran Highlands, at an amazing price! Currently priced to sell well under the latest appraisal. This gorgeous custom home was built to maximize the stunning mountains and city lights that surround it. It is an entertainers dream home and has a heated pool and hot tub. The large kitchen opens up to a family room with endless views through the windows. If you are looking for a master bedroom with a huge closet, then you are home. The 3 guest bedrooms each have views, walk in closets, patios and en suites!Come see this gem in person & fall in love! This property is 2 lots 47/48.

Listed with Keller Williams Arizona Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$428,000 :: 30602 N 45TH Place, Cave Creek AZ, 85331

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,942 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,196 sq ft
Added: 01/17/19, Last Updated: 01/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5869151
Community: DESERT FAIRWAYS AT TATUM RANCH
Tract: DESERT FAIRWAYS AT TATUM RANCH
Status: Active


Gorgeous golf course home in Tatum Ranch. Property has a great layout including 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, an enormous kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and a center island that looks out to a spacious living room with fireplace. Large master bedroom with 2-sided fireplace and retreat. The backyard is an outside oasis with extended patio cover, BBQ area, fireplace and in-ground pool. The property is in need of some TLC including water damage/roof repairs but could be a spectacular home with a some work.

Listed with Real Home Services & Solutions


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$305,000 :: 10233 W GOLDEN Lane, Peoria AZ, 85345

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,238 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 12/28/18, Last Updated: 01/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5860822
Community: OLIVE PARK
Tract: OLIVE PARK
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/17/2019 by 2%
Status: Active


Gorgeous brand new home!! This single family home has beautiful curb appeal with desert landscaping and a modern feel. The home has immaculate wood-like tile throughout, with carpet only in the bedrooms, a neutral paint pallet throughout, an open concept floor plan, a den/office, a spacious kitchen, which is completely open to the family room and dining room/breakfast room with white staggered cabinets, double ovens, stainless steel appliances, a huge island/breakfast bar, and an electric cook top. The guest bedrooms have their own bathrooms and the master has a full en-suite bathroom with double sinks, a walk in shower, and huge walk-in closet. The home is conveniently located near plenty of restaurants and stores, and is near a beautiful park!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$118,995 :: 1621 S 15TH Drive, Phoenix AZ, 85007

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3 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 1,136 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,098 sq ft
Added: 01/17/19, Last Updated: 01/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5869110
Community: CLINT THOMAS HOMES
Tract: CLINT THOMAS HOMES
Status: Active


$1650 / MONTH INSTANT INCOME!!! Rented out through February 2019.

Listed with Pivotal Real Estate Solutions, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$115,000 :: 3106 W MELVIN Street, Phoenix AZ, 85009

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3 beds, 1.5 baths
Home size: 1,194 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 01/17/19, Last Updated: 01/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5869112
Community: TERRA DEL SOL
Tract: TERRA DEL SOL
Status: Active


Investor Special 3 bed/ 2 bath, 480 SF guest house unfinished but has utilities ran to it. As-Is.

Listed with Pivotal Real Estate Solutions, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$134,995 :: 10230 N 11TH Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85021

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 1,089 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,276 sq ft
Added: 01/17/19, Last Updated: 01/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5869117
Community: Metes & Bounds
Tract: Metes & Bounds
Status: Active


Investor Special. Needs some tlc!

Listed with Pivotal Real Estate Solutions, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$214,995 :: 3319 E MONTE VISTA Road, Phoenix AZ, 85008

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,346 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 01/17/19, Last Updated: 01/17/19
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5869111
Community: Westward Ho Manor
Tract: Westward Ho Manor
Status: Active


Investor Special. Needs some tlc!

Listed with Pivotal Real Estate Solutions, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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