Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$224,900 :: 6745 N 93RD Avenue #1123, Glendale AZ, 85305

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2 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,439 sq ft
Lot Size: 871 sq ft
Added: 08/06/18, Last Updated: 09/24/18
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5803110
Community: QUARTER CONDOMINIUM
Tract: QUARTER CONDOMINIUM
Status: Active


Beautiful 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhome with 2 car garage in great Glendale location next to Westgate. Home features an open great room floorplan and 2 master suites. Walking distance to University of Phoenix Stadium, Jobing.com Arena as well as shopping, restaurants and all the other great entertainment Westgate has to offer. Enjoy all the amenities this gated complex has to offer including heated pool/spa and gym. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue. **HOA Fees, Amenities, etc. are estimates only, Buyer to verify prior to Close of Escrow. *

Listed with Legion Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$209,900 :: 3714 N 292ND Lane, Buckeye AZ, 85396

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,229 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,227 sq ft
Added: 09/24/18, Last Updated: 09/24/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5824388
Community: TARTESSO UNIT 1
Tract: TARTESSO UNIT 1
Status: Active


Gorgeous home! 2 story 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home with a huge loft and a 2 car garage located in Buckeye is move in ready! New paint, new carpet. Upgraded shutter shades throughout home! Home has a welcoming entry that leads to the open living space. Open living space has a sliding glass door that opens to the backyard. Full kitchen has an eat-in dining area that opens to the living area, large walk-in pantry. Bedrooms are spacious, master bedroom has a bathroom ensuite. The backyard is large and low maintenance. Don't miss this one!

Listed with OfferPad


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$230,000 :: 7602 N 38th Drive, Phoenix AZ, 85051

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3 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 1,744 sq ft
Lot Size: 1,742 sq ft
Added: 08/06/18, Last Updated: 09/24/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5803280
Community: HEALY'S DUTCHTOWNE 4
Tract: HEALY'S DUTCHTOWNE 4
Status: Active


Beautiful Home Move in Ready! please bring your offers!Pool, 3bed 2 bath and plus den. Open house September 29th.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$224,000 :: 19777 N 76TH Street #2287, Scottsdale AZ, 85255

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,386 sq ft
Lot Size: 0 sq ft
Added: 09/10/18, Last Updated: 09/24/18
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 5818231
Community: Venu At Grayhawk
Tract: Venu At Grayhawk
Status: Active


Great price on this fantastic North Scottsdale condo. Priced $30,000 below comps. Perfect 2 bed 2 bath layout with attached garage. Hardwood floors, granite, great location in the community.

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$194,900 :: 4807 W WESCOTT Drive, Glendale AZ, 85308

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,558 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,840 sq ft
Added: 09/24/18, Last Updated: 09/24/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5824212
Community: WOODRIDGE UNIT 6 REAMD LOT 689
Tract: WOODRIDGE UNIT 6 REAMD LOT 689
Status: Active


Features for this 3 bedroom, 2 bath Glendale home include a formal living room & family room, tri-level floor plan, breakfast area, vaulted ceilings, tile flooring & laminate wood flooring, covered patio, pool, RV gate, 2 car garage, desirable N/S exposure & more! Take a look!!

Listed with A.Z. & Associates Real Estate Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$279,000 :: 9053 W MAUNA LOA Lane, Peoria AZ, 85381

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,572 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 08/27/18, Last Updated: 09/24/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5812183
Community: HORSESHOE BAY LOT 1-70 TR A-D
Tract: HORSESHOE BAY LOT 1-70 TR A-D
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/7/2018 by 4%
Status: Active


PRICED TO SELL FAST!! 4B/3.5B plus Bonus Room. Tucked away in the Desert Harbor Gated Lake Community of Horseshoe Bay, this rare 2,572 sqft floor plan has a large BASEMENT with living area and 2 bedrooms. Kitchen has granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Enjoy the community pool and dock for lake access. This home has great potential and needs a little TLC but it is priced to sell fast!

Listed with The Brokery


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$210,000 :: 5623 W VOGEL Avenue, Glendale AZ, 85302

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,464 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 08/17/18, Last Updated: 09/23/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5808514
Community: BRAEMAR ESTATES 2
Tract: BRAEMAR ESTATES 2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/23/2018 by 5%
Status: Active


Ready for new owner; spacious property down the street from the park; private pool; barbecue area; no HOA; close to Glendale Com College; tile in all the traffic areas; fireplace; spacious rooms; new blinds throughout. Put it first on your list!!!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$210,000 :: 537 S ST CLAIRE --, Mesa AZ, 85208

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,537 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,405 sq ft
Added: 09/21/18, Last Updated: 09/23/18
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 5818614
Community: SIGNAL BUTTE MANOR
Tract: SIGNAL BUTTE MANOR
Status: Active


Home is perfect for a cash buyer or investor and has one of the largest lots in the development! This is a 4 bedroom/2.5 bath home with a huge rear yard, plenty of room for pool, home will need some repairs like painting, flooring, sheetrock repairs, etc. Thanks!

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$39,000 :: 21755 N Venito Road, Maricopa AZ, 85139

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 160 sq ft
Lot Size: 210,394 sq ft
Added: 09/22/18, Last Updated: 09/22/18
Property Type: Mobile/Manufactured
MLS Number: 5824015
Community: Sectional
Tract: Sectional
Status: Active


Nice spot, 4.83 acres, needs fix up.

Listed with Legendary Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$19,900 :: 3751 S Persico Road, Casa Grande AZ, 85193

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 160 sq ft
Lot Size: 54,450 sq ft
Added: 09/22/18, Last Updated: 09/22/18
Property Type: Mobile/Manufactured
MLS Number: 5823999
Community: Sectional
Tract: Sectional
Status: Active


Fix up property. Please do your research.

Listed with Legendary Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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