Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$100,000 :: 516 S MESA Drive, Mesa AZ, 85210

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 1,840 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,277 sq ft
Added: 09/30/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6139858
Community: ALMOND PLACE
Tract: ALMOND PLACE
Status: Active


FIXER UPPER!! Not for the faint at heart. This property needs a full re-do. Property is a house will a couple of add ons plus a large shed in the back. No information about HVAC, utilities, or hot water heater. Property is fenced. Property to be sold AS-IS; no repairs or clean up. Call for more information.

Listed with RE/MAX Professionals


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$159,000 :: 23091 E LOGAN Boulevard, Florence AZ, 85132

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1 bed, 1 bath
Home size: 676 sq ft
Lot Size: 87,120 sq ft
Added: 09/30/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6139648
Community: S34 T5S R10E
Tract: S34 T5S R10E
Status: Active


Grab this while it last!! 2 ACRES of usable land!! This home has a BRAND NEW Roof, New Electrical Panels, Plumbing (2018) and more! Want a 2nd bedroom? No problem! Currently the house is a 1 bed with a den and large bathroom! New cabinets will be installed, paint and flooring! NOW is YOUR opportunity to pick the colors you love!!! Seller is willing to help with exterior improvements as well! Come see this place before its too late!!

Listed with Crossroads Brokerage


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$215,000 :: 1271 N GRANITE REEF Road, Scottsdale AZ, 85257

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2 beds, 1.5 baths
Home size: 950 sq ft
Lot Size: 0 sq ft
Added: 09/30/20, Last Updated: 09/30/20
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6139453
Community: SUMMERFIELD UNIT 5 CONDOMINIUM LOT 78-102
Tract: SUMMERFIELD UNIT 5 CONDOMINIUM LOT 78-102
Status: Active


Absolutely beautiful condominium that has been completely renovated from top to bottom to bring you a move in ready turn key property. Home has new kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, paint, light fixtures, and hardware. You will not be disappointed. Home features 2 bedrooms and 1 and a half bathrooms. Bedrooms and full bath are upstairs, leaving the lower level an open living area. Home is located just minutes from Old Town Scottsdale, The Civic Center, and Fashion Square as well as being close to hiking, parks, and schools. To help visualize this home's floorplan and to highlight its potential, virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing.

Listed with Cerreta Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$700,000 :: 7561 S FRONTIER Street, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,786 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 09/29/20, Last Updated: 09/29/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6133581
Community: ADORA TRAILS PARCEL 14
Tract: ADORA TRAILS PARCEL 14
Status: Active


CASH ONLY BUYERS. Spectacular Pool and Spa Started but not finished yet 53k in pool so far. Views of Lake over fence. Beautiful home owner must sell. 20'' Tile Floors, Granite counter Island in kitchen with Stainless Appliances. Master has dual shower heads and jetted tub, extra game room loft and den. Community has basketball courts, Clubhouse, Lake, workout facility and greenbelts throughout. Highly upgraded pool with Artic Pavers $8.00 per paver, Travertine Bowls any extra material included with the sale of the home. R37 Insulation with 16 Seer AC. Huge Family Room adjoining kitchen, Large dining room and walkin pantry in kitchen. 3 Car Garage with 220 outlet.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$215,000 :: 860 N MCQUEEN Road #1128, Chandler AZ, 85225

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,287 sq ft
Lot Size: 1,307 sq ft
Added: 03/14/20, Last Updated: 09/28/20
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6050796
Community: TOWNHOUSES AT NEW CASTLE
Tract: TOWNHOUSES AT NEW CASTLE
The price of this listing was last reduced on 5/28/2020 by 4%
Status: Active


TRUSTEE SALE - MUST SELL!! AUCTION DATE Beautiful 3 bedroom 2.5 bath townhouse. This home has 3 very spacious bedrooms. Master bedroom has a nice size walk in closet along with a separate linen closet. There are ceiling fans in every room. Family room has new ceiling fan and a beautiful vaulted ceiling. Kitchen includes all appliances and has room for bar stools at the kitchen counter along with a kitchen table. Off the kitchen is the exit to a private cozy backyard with covered patio and storage area, Just outside BY gate are 2 covered parking spaces.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$450,000 :: 3806 N 14TH Place, Phoenix AZ, 85014

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,191 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 09/26/20, Last Updated: 09/26/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6137922
Community: STERLING TRACT
Tract: STERLING TRACT
Status: Active


When I walked into this project I was WOWED by the excellent craftsmanship. These bones are boss! And this is your opportunity to take this project to the finish line and make it your own! Top quality construction project that needs to be completed. Looking for buyer wanting to have fun selecting their own finishes or investor wanting to have fun completing the project. Owner awaiting capital to finish project but willing to liquidate at the right price. Plans and permits can be included in sale. Sold As-Is. This is someone's dream home in the making. Why not yours?

Listed with Urban Blue Realty, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$565,000 :: 17508 E HAWLEY Drive, Fountain Hills AZ, 85268

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,129 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,455 sq ft
Added: 09/26/20, Last Updated: 09/26/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6137556
Community: FOUNTAIN HILLS AZ FP 431_TR A-D
Tract: FOUNTAIN HILLS AZ FP 431_TR A-D
Status: Active


4 BEDROOMS - (2 masters)! Gorgeous Fountain Hills location. Mountain views from the back with no back neighbors for miles!Hurry this one surely won't last.This property is in an upcoming online event. All bids can be submitted online via your agent.

Listed with Vylla Home


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,395,000 :: 8943 E PALM Lane, Mesa AZ, 85207

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7 beds, 7 baths
Home size: 7,221 sq ft
Lot Size: 83,636 sq ft
Added: 09/24/20, Last Updated: 09/24/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6137021
Community: Metes & Bounds
Tract: Metes & Bounds
Status: Active


Motivated Seller, Looking at all offers. Need Space?? Check out this Amazing Opportunity! This exquisite home has all the upgrades and space along with a cash flow rental opportunity. Located in North East Mesa near Las Sendas area - Features 1.92 acre lot, Mountain Views & City Lights, Full Basement, detached Casita - 7 Bed 7 Bath, 6 car garage, large custom diving pool, covered patios, viewing deck, plantation shutters, game room, wine cellar, close to hiking, trails, golf, equestrian trails, easy 202 access, Saguaro Lake, & much More.

Listed with NextHome Alliance


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$142,900 :: 38110 W LATHAM Street, Tonopah AZ, 85354

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,129 sq ft
Lot Size: 108,900 sq ft
Added: 09/24/20, Last Updated: 09/24/20
Property Type: Mobile/Manufactured
MLS Number: 6136808
Community: N/A
Tract: N/A
Status: Active


Affixed manufactured home with fantastic views and sunsets True AS / IS sale, seller does NOT provide SPDS or CLUE disclosures (waive in offer). BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFO HEREIN. Do not make blind offers on the property please. Buyers/agents need to review and execute the attachment previous to making an offer as well. No repairs, credits, treatments, or reductions will be made at anytime. Read through the MLS complete previous to showing please. No reductions or repairs will be made for any reason once contracted. Not suitable for financing. Buyer to be responsible for obtaining the septic certification and reimbursed by theseller at COE. Buyer to obtain shard water well information. Buyer agent of record to register at the ARMLS box.

Listed with Merit Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$684,900 :: 3509 N 32ND Street, Phoenix AZ, 85018

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,248 sq ft
Lot Size: 16,118 sq ft
Added: 07/22/20, Last Updated: 09/23/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6106654
Community: POMELO PARK
Tract: POMELO PARK
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/23/2020 by 1%
Status: Active


Gorgeous dream home in Arcadia Lite Area! Four bedrooms, three baths, and tile in all the right places! The living room is bright with all dual pane windows throughout. The kitchen is every chef's dream with granite and upgraded cabinets. The master bedroom is an oasis with a built in electric fireplace. The master shower has rain shower heads and a bench seat with jets. The master walk-in closet has ample space! The garage is extended for additional storage with shelving. There is a tank less water heater. Nearby there is easy access to shopping or dining, US51 or I10 and the Arizona Biltmore Golf Club or many other downtown Phoenix amenities are just a short drive away.

Listed with Arizona Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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