Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$310,000 :: 3750 W Medlock Drive, Phoenix AZ, 85019

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,253 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,921 sq ft
Added: 04/01/21, Last Updated: 04/15/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6215734
Community: Alhambra Square Lot 1
Tract: Alhambra Square Lot 1
Status: Active


Fully remodeled 3bd/2ba. Open great room feel with tile througout. Fantastic new kitchen including stainless steel appliance package. Easy access to the 17 gets you to most of Phoenix in 20 mins or less. Priced to sell!

Listed with Real Property Management Evolve


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$419,900 :: 2005 N 110TH Avenue, Avondale AZ, 85392

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,236 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 04/08/21, Last Updated: 04/14/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6218826
Community: CRYSTAL GARDENS PARCEL 3
Tract: CRYSTAL GARDENS PARCEL 3
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/14/2021 by 6%
Status: Active


WATERFRONT PROPERTY!! Beautiful 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath with a loft. This home features a large eat in kitchen with many cabinets and kitchen island. Lovely formal and dining rooms and over sized living room. Amazing master suite with separate shower and tub, double sinks AND private access to the balcony with breath taking views of the lake. Backyard has access to an awesome walking/running path that goes around the lake. 3 car garage and a large covered patio. Fresh exterior paint and some interior as well.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$725,000 :: 276 W SWAN Drive, Chandler AZ, 85286

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,146 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 04/14/21, Last Updated: 04/14/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6220426
Community: ARDEN PARK
Tract: ARDEN PARK
Status: Active


This charming 4 bed, 3 bath two-story home features a spacious kitchen, a refreshing in-ground pool and spa, and a large master bedroom complete with a walk-in closet and a full bathroom with a separate tub and shower. Outside, you'll find a manicured backyard complete with a grill station and gas firepit area. Don't miss out, schedule a showing today!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$69,000 :: 801 S ST LOUIS Avenue, Gila Bend AZ, 85337

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,944 sq ft
Lot Size: 43,560 sq ft
Added: 07/23/20, Last Updated: 04/09/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6107562
Community: GILA BEND BLKS 5-8, 17-23, 20 1/2
Tract: GILA BEND BLKS 5-8, 17-23, 20 1/2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/27/2020 by 7%
Status: Active


Large single family home located in Central Gila Bend. Great starter home or an investor special. Make an offer today, priced for quick sale.

Listed with Legendary Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,475,000 :: 8943 E Palm Lane, Mesa AZ, 85207

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7 beds, 7 baths
Home size: 7,221 sq ft
Lot Size: 83,636 sq ft
Added: 04/07/21, Last Updated: 04/07/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6218146
Community: Metes & Bounds
Tract: Metes & Bounds
Status: Active


Need Space?? Check out this Amazing Opportunity! This exquisite home has all the upgrades and space along with a cash flow rental opportunity. Located in North East Mesa near Las Sendas area - Features 1.92 acre higher elevation lot, Mountain Views & City Lights, Full Basement, Detached Casita with connected 2nd story breezeway, 7 Bed 7 Bath, 6 car garage, large custom diving pool, sport court, covered patios, viewing decks, plantation shutters, game room, wine cellar, close to hiking, trails, golf, equestrian trails, sky harbor airport, easy 202 access, Saguaro Lake, & much More. Set an appointment to see this amazing home today! Seller May Carry with 20% Down.

Listed with NextHome Alliance


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$720,000 :: 13327 N BLUE COYOTE Trail, Fort McDowell AZ, 85264

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,650 sq ft
Lot Size: 193,407 sq ft
Added: 02/05/21, Last Updated: 03/26/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6190695
Community: GOLDFIELD PHASE 1 (SURVEY)
Tract: GOLDFIELD PHASE 1 (SURVEY)
The price of this listing was last increased on 3/26/2021 by 6%
Status: Active


CUSTOM HOME on a 4.45 acre horse property in Goldfield Ranch. Minutes from Fountain Hills, Saguaro Lake & 35 minutes to the airport. This 1 level home has a beautiful kitchen with island, desk area & an xtra island with bar stools. The spacious Great Room/Kitchen easily hosts cozy dinners or a large gathering. 5 bedrooms, 3.5 bath, 2 M Bedrooms. A Detached 1 bedroom guesthouse with kitchen, bathroom, family room, two car garage big enough for a work shop. Home is sold AS-IS.

Listed with HomeSmart Lifestyles


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$915,000 :: 9578 N 132ND Place, Scottsdale AZ, 85259

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,261 sq ft
Lot Size: 35,284 sq ft
Added: 03/24/21, Last Updated: 03/24/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6203427
Community: CARINO CANYON BY SHEA HOMES
Tract: CARINO CANYON BY SHEA HOMES
Status: Active


Wow! Amazing city light and mountain views to be enjoyed from the gorgeous and peaceful back yard with large covered patio, pool, spa, fire pit and built-in BBQ. Popular split floor plan featuring formal living and dining room, family room, and gourmet kitchen with Bosch appliances, gas cooking and island. Plus, soaring ceilings throughout and huge bedrooms with walk-in closets and well-appointed primary suite with exit to the back yard. All of this in a beautiful gated community nestled next to mountains and the back yard bordering the reservation. It all adds up to a fantastic location , features and value!

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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