Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$175,000 :: 14062 S CAPISTRANO Road, Arizona City AZ, 85123

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,323 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,584 sq ft
Added: 01/15/21, Last Updated: 01/15/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6181706
Community: ARIZONA CITY UNIT TWELVE
Tract: ARIZONA CITY UNIT TWELVE
Status: Active


Nice 3 Bedroom 2 bath home with large fenced back yard. This home features a walk in pantry, kitchen island, and open floor plan. Back patio roof needs replacing and is reflected in list price. This home is being sold as is.

Listed with Ivory Towers Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,349,900 :: 6831 N 58TH Place, Paradise Valley AZ, 85253

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,656 sq ft
Lot Size: 50,530 sq ft
Added: 01/15/21, Last Updated: 01/15/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6181540
Community: LEGAL TO FOLLOW IN ESCROW
Tract: LEGAL TO FOLLOW IN ESCROW
Status: Active


LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. THIS 1964 YEAR BUILT CUSTOM HOME IS LOCATED IN TOWN of PARADISE VALLEY PRIME POCKET WITH SO MUCH POTENTIAL & UPSIDE AFTER NEW BUYER UPDATES & REMODELS or ''SCRAPE & RAZE'' AND BUILD YOUR CUSTOM DREAM HOME. PROPERTY IS LOCATED ON DEAD-END STREET WITH SURROUND MOUNTAIN VIEWS ON 1.16 ACRE LOT. FLOOR PLAN FEATURES OPEN GREAT ROOM WITH CUSTOM FIREPLACE, 4 BEDROOMS (SPLIT MASTER) PLUS SEPARATE OFFICE/DEN, POOL, SPA, CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY, PRIVATE PATIOS FROM ROOMS, AND MORE. UTILITIES: APS ELECTRIC, SWGAS, EPCOR PRIVATE WATER, & SEPTIC SYSTEM. TERRIFIC VALUE AND FUTURE POTENTIAL AWAITS. GO QUICKLY ON THIS AMAZING PROPERTY AND BUYER OPPORTUNITY!!!

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$280,000 :: 6022 W CROCUS Drive, Glendale AZ, 85306

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,494 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 11/10/20, Last Updated: 01/15/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6149853
Community: WESTREE UNIT 1 PHASE 4
Tract: WESTREE UNIT 1 PHASE 4
Status: Active


This home's amazing 3 Bedroom 2 Bathroom home has many desirable features including vaulted ceilings and a great floor plan offering more square footage than other similar homes in the area. Updated electrical throughout the home with surround sound wiring. NO HOA!! RV GATE! Great location near Thunderbird Park, gyms, shopping, and dining. This home will not last long, do not miss out!

Listed with Libertas Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,100,000 :: 9814 E PIEDRA Drive, Scottsdale AZ, 85255

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3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,110 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 01/15/21, Last Updated: 01/15/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6179875
Community: WINDGATE RANCH
Tract: WINDGATE RANCH
Status: Active


This is a wonderful opportunity to live in the prestigious community of Windgate Ranch. This fabulous home offers Two master suites plus another bedroom and then an office. So many upgrades to mention. Stunning and tastefully appointed. Gorgeous pool and spa with gas raised fire pit, stunning mountain views and wonderful BBQ entertaining area. This is a 10 plus.

Listed with Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$265,000 :: 7606 W GLENROSA Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85033

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,412 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 01/15/21, Last Updated: 01/15/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6179835
Community: MARLBOROUGH COUNTRY
Tract: MARLBOROUGH COUNTRY
Status: Active


This is it! This partially remodeled home is close to stadiums and shopping. Very open and bright floor plan. Featuring a stunning fireplace, and spacious rooms. This outstanding home has has the roof replaced in the last 6-7 years, a year old water heater and 3 year old AC unit. The owner has upgraded the flooring and carpet throughout most of the home and repainted it. Come check it out while it lasts!

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$149,900 :: 206 E CEDAR Avenue, Casa Grande AZ, 85122

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3 beds, 0 bath
Home size: 1,937 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,940 sq ft
Added: 01/14/21, Last Updated: 01/14/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6181025
Community: BurgessAdd CG lots 15, 16 Blk 4
Tract: BurgessAdd CG lots 15, 16 Blk 4
Status: Active


Handyman / Investor Special - Big opportunity for cash flow and perfect for a contractor or anyone looking for a big 40X30 metal building SHOP with electrical, concrete floor and paved driveway. Home is a 3 Bed 2 Bath with an attached 1 Bed 1 Bath full kitchen casita / Mother in Law Suite or rental. Home is ready for final touches. 80% of the plumbing and electrical are new and complete. Comes with additional oversized AC units. Lots of income opportunity or move in to one side and rent the other. Use the shop or rent it out. Must see. Seller has window, plumbing bids available and other contractors referrals if needed. Work in progress so price will increase. Final ARV estimated at $250k when all work is completed. So buy now at wholesale price and save. ROOF is only 3 years old!

Listed with Delex Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$399,900 :: 18103 W CANYON Lane, Goodyear AZ, 85338

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,825 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,326 sq ft
Added: 01/14/21, Last Updated: 01/14/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6180965
Community: SUNCHASE AT ESTRELLA PARCEL 52 AMD
Tract: SUNCHASE AT ESTRELLA PARCEL 52 AMD
Status: Active


INVESTOR SPECIAL! This 4 bdrm, 3 bath, home for sale in the Master-Planned Community of Estrella Mountain Ranch and sits on a quarter acre corner lot! Needs work, but has great curb appeal, pool, and 2 car garage. Vaulted ceilings, dining/living areas & loft. Generously proportioned master suite w/walk-in closet, full bath with separate tub & shower. Entertainers backyard w/ extended covered patio, walkways, private swimming pool & beautiful views of the mountains. Home needs a lot of TLC but has so much potential. Come see for yourself & enjoy all the amenities Estrella has to offer.

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$213,000 :: 8625 E BELLEVIEW Place #1073, Scottsdale AZ, 85257

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 900 sq ft
Lot Size: 872 sq ft
Added: 01/13/21, Last Updated: 01/13/21
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6180507
Community: SCOTTSDALE TRAILS
Tract: SCOTTSDALE TRAILS
Status: Active


Cozy 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Townhouse. 2 Assigned Covered Spots. Community Pool. Great Location in Scottsdale. All On One Level, and on the corner of the complex with spacious patio area to enjoy the AZ sunrise. You'll Enjoy your Covered Patio. Tile floor, and central location close to Loop 101, 202 and US60. Right down the street from ASU Skysong. This remarkable property is available for immediate sale. The seller is very responsive and the property is a perfect opportunity. Take advantage of this amazing opportunity.

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$203,000 :: 131 N Hunt Drive W, Mesa AZ, 85203

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3 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 972 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 01/13/21, Last Updated: 01/13/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6180297
Community: Randall Hts
Tract: Randall Hts
Status: Active


Super cute 3 bedroom cottage in a fantastic neighborhood. Nice lot with separate workshop/outbuilding. Newer dual pane windows, newer roof and newer HVAC Better move quickly. This property will not last.

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$399,900 :: 17779 W HOLLY Drive, Surprise AZ, 85374

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,911 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 12/12/20, Last Updated: 01/12/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6170617
Community: ARIZONA TRADITIONS
Tract: ARIZONA TRADITIONS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/12/2021 by 2%
Status: Active


This home is located on a rare golf course lot with gorgeous view of the 14th green as it has 3 bedrooms , 2.5 bathrooms 1933 square feet. A marvelous kitchen with double ovens, center island with breakfast bar, tile back-splash, and beautiful cabinets with roll out shelves. Kitchen flows into eating area and great room with stone work fireplace. Living and dining room with lots of natural light emphasizing the open feel and spectacular views of the golf course that can be viewed inside or outdoors under the covered patio. This home is located in a guard-gated 55+ a well recognized community in Arizona Traditions known for its many amenities that include Biking/Walking Path; Clubhouse/Rec Room; Community Tennis Court(s); Community Heated Pool and Spa Gated/Guarded Entry; On-Site Guard

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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