Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$349,000 :: 1904 E MURIEL Drive, Phoenix AZ, 85022

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,129 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 05/12/21, Last Updated: 05/12/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6234822
Community: STARLIGHT RANCH
Tract: STARLIGHT RANCH
Status: Active


Welcome to the private gated community of Starlight Ranch. Enjoy the sparkling pool and large grassy area, making this community very pet and family friendly. This lovely 2 story single family home has an oversized 2 car garage, 3 spacious bedrooms, plus a master suite with a private bathroom as well as a large walk in closet. The bonus room upstairs provides many opportunities for use including a second informal family room, game room or office. The downstairs has an open floor plan and eat in kitchen. The spacious backyard features low maintenance landscaping. Don't miss out on this fabulous opportunity!

Listed with The Brokery


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$319,999 :: 6814 W Windsor Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85035

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,264 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,277 sq ft
Added: 05/06/21, Last Updated: 05/07/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6232371
Community: Maryvale Terrance 58
Tract: Maryvale Terrance 58
Status: Active


This three bedroom two bath home is ready for your creative touches. Single level split floorplan with tons of storage. Open great room. 2 Car Garage, R.V. gate, R.V. parking for all of your toys. Outside bedroom and bathroom amount to about 300+ sq.ft extra of living space, bringing the total sq.ft to about 1564.Close to schools, parks, dining, and highways. NO HOA. Buyer and buyer's agent to verify all facts and figures.

Listed with Superlative Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$895,000 :: 10170 E LARKSPUR Drive, Scottsdale AZ, 85260

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 4,063 sq ft
Lot Size: 15,682 sq ft
Added: 05/04/21, Last Updated: 05/04/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6231026
Community: POWDERHORN RANCH
Tract: POWDERHORN RANCH
Status: Active


Located in the Powderhorn Ranch community in Scottsdale, this spacious home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, formal living room, family room with double-sided fireplace & wet bar, formal dining room, travertine flooring, vaulted ceilings & fireplace in the master bedroom, double sinks in the master bath, granite countertops & breakfast area in the kitchen, walk-in pantry, 3 car garage and more!

Listed with A.Z. & Associates


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$3,000,000 :: 14531 E SIERRA ALEGRE Court, Fountain Hills AZ, 85268

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5 beds, 8 baths
Home size: 9,653 sq ft
Lot Size: 163,786 sq ft
Added: 04/25/21, Last Updated: 04/29/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6217925
Community: CRESTVIEW AT FOUNTAIN HILLS
Tract: CRESTVIEW AT FOUNTAIN HILLS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 4/29/2021 by 14%
Status: Active


72 Hour Sale! SPECTACULAR 10,000 SF Luxury Contemporary Custom Estate designed to perfection on 3.8 Acres w/UNBELIEVABLE PANORAMIC MOUNTAIN & CITY LIGHT VIEWS OF DOWNTOWN PHX & CAMELBACK MOUNTAIN! PRICED TO SELL! Located in a private GATED community on the Scottsdale border. Dramatic design & architecture w/soaring ceilings, HUGE open & split floorplan,oversized rooms,walls of windows w/automated glass wall off the family room w/fabulous & seamless extension of the indoor/outdoor living space! An absolute entertainers dream! MASSIVE family rm w/lrg wet bar & wine cellar open to the fabulous gourmet kitchen! Huge,5-car garage w/frosted glass doors, Elevator,Amazing master suite w/FP,steam shower,huge master bathrm,& his/her closets. MUST SEE TO BELIEVE! PRICED TO MOVE NOW!

Listed with Hague Partners


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$424,000 :: 6439 S 32ND Street, Phoenix AZ, 85042

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,859 sq ft
Lot Size: 82,329 sq ft
Added: 04/29/21, Last Updated: 04/29/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6228474
Community: BARTLETT HEARD LANDS LOT 65
Tract: BARTLETT HEARD LANDS LOT 65
Status: Active


If you are looking for horse property, and your own organic urban paradise, but want to be a short commutefrom down town Phoenix, and Sky Harbor Airport, look no further. This Authentic Phoenician territorialstyle retreat has what you are looking for. All potential buyers are asked to check with city and tax recordsto determine actual bedroom, bathroom counts and all details on this property listed above to theirsatisfaction. This is an AS-IS foreclosed/REO property. Buyer to verify any and all information material tothem.

Listed with RealHome Services & Solutions


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$285,000 :: 1815 E LA SALLE Road, Phoenix AZ, 85086

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,160 sq ft
Lot Size: 44,432 sq ft
Added: 07/31/20, Last Updated: 04/29/21
Property Type: Mobile/Manufactured
MLS Number: 6110792
Community: LA SALLE HEIGHTS
Tract: LA SALLE HEIGHTS
Status: Active


Just over an acre of land privileges with plenty of space for all your toys. The mountain views in this area are amazing. Priced for a quick sale, make an offer.

Listed with Legendary Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$250,000 :: 851 S John Wayne Parkway, Maricopa AZ, 85138

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 576 sq ft
Lot Size: 98,882 sq ft
Added: 04/25/21, Last Updated: 04/26/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6226758
Community: SW SW SW NW SEC 28 6S 3E 2.5AC
Tract: SW SW SW NW SEC 28 6S 3E 2.5AC
The price of this listing was last increased on 4/26/2021 by 0%
Status: Active


Great big piece of Maricopa. This is the property that you need to have. Full of life at the end of John Wayne Parkway. Convenient to Stanfield, CG or anywhere on I-8.

Listed with Legendary Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$950,000 :: 9578 N 132ND Place, Scottsdale AZ, 85259

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,261 sq ft
Lot Size: 35,284 sq ft
Added: 03/24/21, Last Updated: 04/19/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6203427
Community: CARINO CANYON BY SHEA HOMES
Tract: CARINO CANYON BY SHEA HOMES
The price of this listing was last increased on 4/19/2021 by 4%
Status: Active


Wow! Amazing city light and mountain views to be enjoyed from the gorgeous and peaceful back yard with large covered patio, pool, spa, fire pit and built-in BBQ. Popular split floor plan featuring formal living and dining room, family room, and gourmet kitchen with Bosch & Viking appliances, gas cooking and island. Plus, soaring ceilings throughout and huge bedrooms with walk-in closets and well-appointed primary suite with exit to the back yard. All of this in a beautiful gated community nestled next to mountains and the back yard bordering the reservation. It all adds up to a fantastic location , features and value!

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$69,000 :: 801 S ST LOUIS Avenue, Gila Bend AZ, 85337

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,944 sq ft
Lot Size: 43,560 sq ft
Added: 07/23/20, Last Updated: 04/09/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6107562
Community: GILA BEND BLKS 5-8, 17-23, 20 1/2
Tract: GILA BEND BLKS 5-8, 17-23, 20 1/2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/27/2020 by 7%
Status: Active


Large single family home located in Central Gila Bend. Great starter home or an investor special. Make an offer today, priced for quick sale.

Listed with Legendary Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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