Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$75,000 :: 418 W HARTFORD Road, Kearny AZ, 85137

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,260 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 10/26/21, Last Updated: 01/18/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6312643
Community: KEARNY SUBDIVISION NO 4
Tract: KEARNY SUBDIVISION NO 4
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/18/2022 by 7%
Status: Active


4 bedroom 2 bath single family. Great for investment or first time home buyer opportunity with some sweat equity. Priced for quick sale. Buyer to confirm condition and current utilities to the property.

Listed with Legendary Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$386,000 :: 955 E MORELOS Street, Chandler AZ, 85225

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,102 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 01/03/22, Last Updated: 01/17/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6337029
Community: MONTEREY VISTA
Tract: MONTEREY VISTA
Status: Active


Investor Opportunity! Tenant occupied until 9/30/2022. Great opportunity to get into a Chandler home in a central location.

Listed with Brewer & Stratton Property Management LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$725,000 :: 1602 W WILSHIRE Drive, Phoenix AZ, 85007

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,482 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 01/16/22, Last Updated: 01/16/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6342274
Community: DEL NORTE PLACE PLAT B
Tract: DEL NORTE PLACE PLAT B
Status: Active


Walking distance from EnCanto Park and Golf Course, the appealing location of this 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home has you close go downtown restaurants and activities. The highlights of the kitchen include stainless steel appliances, double oven, wine fridge, dark maple cabinetry, granite countertops, and a tiled backsplash. Family room off of the kitchen has a slate stone fireplace, as well as new flooring. Large Master suite has a sunken jet tub with separate exit leading to the patio area. The Yard wraps around the house giving you curb appeal both from the front courtyard to the side house. This home is waiting for you to put on your own special touches.

Listed with The Agency


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$342,000 :: 225 W 8TH Avenue, Mesa AZ, 85210

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,600 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 01/13/22, Last Updated: 01/13/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6341766
Community: Unknown
Tract: Unknown
Status: Active




Listed with Property Hub LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$675,000 :: 1352 S NEBRASKA Place, Chandler AZ, 85286

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,623 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 01/12/22, Last Updated: 01/12/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6339473
Community: ALMA SCHOOL PLACE
Tract: ALMA SCHOOL PLACE
Status: Active


Single-level home on a corner lot in a cul-de-sac now available! Offering lush green landscape & gated courtyard which encloses the casita entrance. Detached guest house w/full bathroom and small 1/2 kitchenette, perfect for multi-generational living. Delightful interior greets you with a bright living & dining room, neutral palette, & plantation shutters. Continue on to the eat-in kitchen to find a bay window w/backyard views of the pool, staggered cabinets, pendant & recessed lighting, granite backsplash & counters, & a center island w/breakfast bar. Owner's suite has a double-door entry, back patio access & a spotless ensuite w/separate tub, dual sinks & walk-in closet. Unwind after a busy day in this serene backyard w/extended covered patio, grassy area & sparkling pool w/water featur

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$374,000 :: 26429 S DARTFORD Drive, Sun Lakes AZ, 85248

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,348 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 01/10/22, Last Updated: 01/10/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6339852
Community: SUN LAKES UNIT 15
Tract: SUN LAKES UNIT 15
Status: Active


Welcome home to this Sun Lakes beauty. This home features three sets of beautiful French doors, tile in walkways and kitchen, updated kitchen, gigantic covered patio, professionally built AZ room, and large yard with citrus trees. This remarkable property is available for immediate sale. The seller is very responsive and the property is a perfect opportunity. Take advantage of this amazing opportunity.

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$655,000 :: 15133 W CAMPBELL Avenue, Goodyear AZ, 85395

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,476 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 10/06/21, Last Updated: 12/30/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6303566
Community: PALM VALLEY PHASE 5 PARCELS 1-4
Tract: PALM VALLEY PHASE 5 PARCELS 1-4
The price of this listing was last increased on 12/30/2021 by 5%
Status: Active


MOTIVATED SELLER!!! This gently lived in gem offers 5 bedrooms, 3 full baths, upgrades throughout, 2 way staircase, large loft, 1 bedroom and full bath downstairs, 3 car split garage, a 9000sqft+ lot and is located in the highly desired community of Palm Valley. Great schools, shopping and dining all just around the corner. Hurry, this amazing value won't last long!!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$249,000 :: 5136 E EVERGREEN Street #1134, Mesa AZ, 85205

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 849 sq ft
Lot Size: 872 sq ft
Added: 12/14/21, Last Updated: 12/23/21
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6323764
Community: NORTHPOINTE 2 AMD
Tract: NORTHPOINTE 2 AMD
Status: Active




Listed with The Offer Company


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$455,000 :: 11207 S IROQUOIS Drive, Phoenix AZ, 85044

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,143 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 12/13/21, Last Updated: 12/13/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6331606
Community: AHWATUKEE RS-4
Tract: AHWATUKEE RS-4
Status: Active


Amazing location for the beautiful Single Family home in Ahwatukee. This home is nestled in a private cul de sac and features a large family room with fireplace, open kitchen with breakfast bar, large primary bedroom suite, AZ room, built in BBQ and storage shed. This remarkable property is available for immediate sale. The seller is very responsive and the property is a perfect opportunity. Take advantage of this amazing opportunity.

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$450,000 :: 17575 W WATSON Lane, Surprise AZ, 85388

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,425 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 07/19/21, Last Updated: 12/13/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6266999
Community: SIERRA MONTANA PARCEL 10
Tract: SIERRA MONTANA PARCEL 10
The price of this listing was last increased on 12/13/2021 by 6%
Status: Active


AMAZING 2 STORY HOUSE IN A PICTURESQUE NEIGHBORHOOD. GORGEOUS KITCHEN, SPACIOUS ROOMS AND A NICE CHUNK OF LAND IN THE BACKYARD. YOU WON'T REGRET IT! AGENTS PLEASE TAKE A LOOK AT THE PRIVATE REMARKS AS THEY ARE IMPORTANT. vacant vacant

Listed with Novus Realty Agency


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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