Phoenix Shadow Inventory Real Estate Numbers

Just because they print it does it make it true?

Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT.  Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper.  I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board.  Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true?  That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory.  Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory.  Obviously,  shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market.  Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date.  Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind.  As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets?  Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami.  Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.

Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels

Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising.   When a  lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days.  The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007.  A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures.   A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures.   The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.

Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory

The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included.   I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left.  The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS.  At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000.   Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties.    The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market.  Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties.  The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state.   The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale.  This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%.   These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification,  purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender.   A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO  properties later on.  The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.

The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.

Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends.  If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes.  And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so.  Get the real data and understand the trends.

If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or  receive updated listings for your favorite community.

Waterfront Bank -Owned Homes

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$44,900 :: 39 N MAGMA Avenue, Superior AZ, 85173

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,378 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,050 sq ft
Added: 09/28/22, Last Updated: 11/29/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6469987
Community: SUPERIOR TOWNSITE
Tract: SUPERIOR TOWNSITE
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/29/2022 by 25%
Status: Active


Great investment opportunity! This single family home is situated one block from the historic downtown Superior main street. The home is ready for your creative inspiration and offers a large fenced yard, storage shed and breathtaking mountain views. Located on the North side of town directly behind the NEW MAGMA HOTEL. This is a 3 bed 1 and 3/4 bath home Enjoy this festive little town Just 25 minutes away from the valley with 7-10 degrees cooler temps.. this town offers Hiking, Biking and 4 wheeling all year round! Thanks for looking

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$350,000 :: 8541 W CORDES Road, Tolleson AZ, 85353

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,603 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 11/26/22, Last Updated: 11/26/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6493031
Community: Volterra
Tract: Volterra
Status: Active


Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity, PRICED EXTREMELY COMPETITIVELY!Picture yourself in this beautiful 4 bedroom 2 bath home in the Volterra Community. This floor plan offers a spacious living area and a great split between the master and other bedrooms. All the carpet has been replaced and upgraded with a beautiful tile! This home features energy efficient features, such as solar panels, a new AC and Heating system. Close proximity to Loop 202 and I-10 makes it easy to get around the valley. Clean and ready to move in, schedule your showing today!

Listed with Keller Williams Elite


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$306,000 :: 1319 E JULIUS Street, Casa Grande AZ, 85122

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,282 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 11/24/22, Last Updated: 11/24/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6492753
Community: ARROYO VISTA UNIT 1
Tract: ARROYO VISTA UNIT 1
Status: Active


Come check out this great 2 bedroom 2 bathroom single story starter or retirement home. This house could be turned into a 3 bedroom with the den. Located in the heart of Casa Grande with close proximately to schools and shopping.

Listed with Kenneth James Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$79,900 :: 225 N Lobb Avenue, Superior AZ, 85173

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3 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 1,134 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 11/23/22, Last Updated: 11/23/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6492635
Community: ADDITION TO SUPERIOR TOWNSITE
Tract: ADDITION TO SUPERIOR TOWNSITE
Status: Active


Great investment opportunity! This single family home is situated two blocks from the historic downtown Superior main street. The previous owner completed a significant portion of the renovation work; all this home needs is your creative finishes. Excellent income potential by finishing the 900 sq ft basement. This home offers breathtaking mountain views. This is a 3 bed 1 bath home upstairs with the potential to finish the basement for an additional bedrooms and bathroom. Enjoy this festive little town Just 25 minutes away from the valley with 7-10 degrees cooler temps.. this town offers Hiking, Biking and 4 wheeling all year round! Thanks for looking

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$599,900 :: 40834 N 26TH Street, Cave Creek AZ, 85331

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,735 sq ft
Lot Size: 110,643 sq ft
Added: 11/23/22, Last Updated: 11/23/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6492452
Community: Metes & Bounds
Tract: Metes & Bounds
Status: Active


Astounding mountain views await you in this adorable 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home located on a large 2.535 Acre lot. Enjoy all the peace and calm of being nestled right near the Cave Creek preserve with hiking and nature walks right out your front gate. Home features an open kitchen with gas stove and walk in pantry. The owners retreat upstairs is a private oasis complete with a private balcony where you can privately enjoy the breathtaking mountain views. You can bring all your Horses, animals and toys there is plenty of room. Shopping and restaurants are still nearby. Buyer and Buyer's Broker to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

Listed with Legion Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$599,000 :: 10836 E SAHUARO Drive, Scottsdale AZ, 85259

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,556 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 11/23/22, Last Updated: 11/23/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6492422
Community: PARADISE VISTA ESTATES
Tract: PARADISE VISTA ESTATES
Status: Active


Remodeled home with NO HOA in the heart of Scottsdale! 3 bed, 2 bath, over 1,500 square feet with extra cooled Arizona Room/Bonus Room/Office. New kitchen with quartz counters and stainless steel appliances. Huge open floor plan with tile throughout. Large laundry room with extra cabinets for storage and could also be used as Butler's Pantry. Updated bathrooms and new paint inside and out. Nice backyard with built-in BBQ. 2-car garage with RV Parking.

Listed with Venture REI, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$280,000 :: 932 W 4TH Avenue, Apache Junction AZ, 85120

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3 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 1,184 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 10/26/22, Last Updated: 11/23/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6481940
Community: APACHE-HO UNIT ONE
Tract: APACHE-HO UNIT ONE
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/23/2022 by 14%
Status: Active


Amazing opportunity to own this updated nostalgic beauty w/an excellent location in the heart of Apache Junction! This energy-efficient, ready-to-move-in home is surrounded by restaurants, shopping centers, and entertainment. The bright interior boasts a functional open layout w/a sizable living room that merges into the dining area. Clean lines, tile flooring, a neutral palette, and flat ceilings are features worth mentioning. The modern white kitchen showcases recessed lighting, shaker wood cabinetry w/black hardware, granite countertops, SS appliances, and a peninsula w/a breakfast bar. The primary suite has two closets & a private bathroom. The large backyard offers a covered patio & enough space to host fun gatherings. Run, don't walk to see it! You don't want to miss this rare find!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$239,000 :: 14622 N 52ND Avenue, Glendale AZ, 85306

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3 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 1,064 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 10/22/22, Last Updated: 11/22/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6480780
Community: PATIO HOMES NORTH 6
Tract: PATIO HOMES NORTH 6
Status: Active


This is a great opportunity to own a home with plenty of potential in a wonderful neighborhood. The home is conveniently close to the ASU West campus, shopping, medical facilities, restaurants, and Acoma Park. You can easily update the home with some engineered hardwood, tile, stone counters, white shaker cabinets with stainless appliances, paint, and carpet and make a very nice profit! The covered patio in the backyard is perfect for enjoying this beautiful Arizona weather, and there's also a covered 2 car carport in the back, an RV gate, and no HOA! Don't miss out on this great home - it won't last long!

Listed with The Offer Company


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$387,500 :: 21540 W SONORA Street, Buckeye AZ, 85326

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,896 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 11/22/22, Last Updated: 11/22/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6492196
Community: SUNDANCE PARCEL 49A AMD
Tract: SUNDANCE PARCEL 49A AMD
Status: Active


Spacious 1896 sf split bedroom plan with vaulted ceilings, open great room, island, and tons of cabinets & counters in kitchen! Huge lot with unlimited possibilities Covered patio, Barely lived in interior tile in all the right places, inside laundry. Well-kept, single level. 2C garage. Property is sold ''as-is, where-is'' with no reps or warranties. Seller will provide no CLUES or SPDS rpts. Seller will not pay for any fees associated wih HOA transfer. Buyer may choose own title company. Buyer will be responsible for all title and escrow fees. This property may qualify for Seller Financing. (Vendee).

Listed with Phoenix Real Estate Brokers


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$499,000 :: 1320 W PALO VERDE Drive, Chandler AZ, 85224

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,076 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,504 sq ft
Added: 11/21/22, Last Updated: 11/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6490844
Community: SARATOGA SQUARE
Tract: SARATOGA SQUARE
Status: Active


Come live under the shade of the Ficus tree - this Chandler charmer features a huge yard, pool, spa and out-building and no HOA on a coveted, oversized cul-de-sac lot . Kitchen features upgraded cabinets with pull out shelves, wine and dish racks, deep drawers for larger items, several glass fronts & more! Walk-in pantry has lots of room for storage. Primary suite has a retreat space perfect for a sitting room, work out area, office space or convert it to a 4th bedroom! Primary ensuite offers dual sinks, two closets including one cedar lined with built-in shelving, and large sunken shower with a window. Exit the primary suite to your back yard with a beautiful pool and spa, a storage shed, RV rolling gate, and & out-building with AC for use as storage, toys, a workshop & beyond.

Listed with Hague Partners


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


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