Just because they print it does it make it true?
Congratulations Miami, the 2011 NBA champions! – NOT. Here it is in print from a Florida newspaper. I guess they never got the memo or checked the score board. Just because it gets printed or makes its way onto the internet, does that make it true? That’s the same way I feel about Phoenix area shadow inventory. Some of the confusion lies in the definition of shadow inventory. Obviously, shadow inventory includes properties that have gone back to the lender but are not on the market. Some also consider homes that have received a Notice of Trustee Sale with a scheduled auction date. Some add to those numbers loans that are seriously delinquent which is 90+ days behind. As you can see, the definition will affect the level of shadow inventory cited by the various experts. There’s also the issue that real estate is local and national commentaries cannot be relevant to individual markets? Many have stated that shadow inventory is out of control and will contribute to a foreclosure Tsunami. Now let’s get the facts for the Phoenix area.
Fuel for the foreclosure fire – pending foreclosures and Phoenix shadow inventory levels
Understanding shadow inventory levels is important because it is a leading indicator of the number of homes that will eventually become foreclosure or lender owned properties which sell at discounts and keep home values from rising. When a lender deems that a home owner falls sufficiently delinquent, a notice of trustee sale is issued advising the homeowner that the property will be sold at a trustee sale auction in 90 days. The graph to the right shows the number of outstanding notice of trustee sale notices with a future auction date for Maricopa county since 2007. A lower number is indicates that fewer properties will go to auction and become lender owned foreclosures. A historical perspective helps identify trends and understand the future supply of lender owned foreclosures. The 2011 trend line is represented by the pink line and shows a favorable trend downwards.
Components of Phoenix Shadow Inventory
The definition of shadow inventory is will vary and depends on which components are included. I like the definition used by The Cromford Report shown by the graph to the left. The bottom red portion are active foreclosure or REO listings being marketed in the MLS. At the beginning of November 2010, the active lender owned foreclosures were in excess of 6,000. Nine months later at the beginning of August 2011, the number has been cut by more than half, to approx. 2,800 properties. The next component, the Unlisted REO’s, (in blue) are those that have reverted to the bank at auction and are in the process of being prepared to go on the market. Interestingly, this component remains fairly constant between 7,000 – 8,000 properties. The fact that Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state helps keep this level lowered than if Arizona was judicial foreclosure state. The purple portion represents pending foreclosure or properties with a notice of trustee sale. This component has decreased from 35,000 to 21,000, or 40%. These properties may be sold as short sales, achieve a loan modification, purchased at auction or eventually revert back to the beneficiary or lender. A diminishing level of pending foreclosures will result in fewer foreclosured /lender-owned/REO properties later on. The Pending Foreclosures graph above shows a very positive trend for this category since its peak at the end of 2009.
The other component that would be interesting is the number of homes that have stopped paying their mortgage but have not received a notice of trustee sale.
Now you have it, the break down of shadow inventory, what it is and the current trends. If you are waiting for the next wave of foreclosures, it may be a very long time unless there are some fundamental changes. And remember just because you see it something in print doesn’t mean it is necessarily so. Get the real data and understand the trends.
If you would like more information on any homes for sale feel free to call or e-mail or receive updated listings for your favorite community.
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$470,000 :: 21724 W LONE MOUNTAIN Road, Wittmann AZ, 85361


4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,859 sq ft
Lot Size: 43,560 sq ft
Added: 02/28/23, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6525722
Community: Metes and Bounds
Tract: Metes and Bounds
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/27/2023 by 3%
Status: Active
Charming 4 bed/2 bath Home on an unspoiled acre! LOTS & LOTS of room for your horses and toys! Don't miss this custom home which features an open floor plan and split master. Plank floors, granite counter tops, stainless appliances and ceiling fans throughout the home are just a few of the many upgrades incorporated by the builder. Spacious and inviting primary bedroom with stunning bathroom and walk in closet. Kitchen is a dream and open to the great room with bar seating and table seating. Huge laundry room includes granite and custom cabinets as well. The roomy 3 car attached garage is ready for your vehicles and toys. This home is also on water - no well!! Come see it today.
Listed with Realty ONE Group
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$400,000 :: 11979 W Taylor Street, Avondale AZ, 85323


4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,490 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,921 sq ft
Added: 03/08/23, Last Updated: 03/24/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6529344
Community: DESERT SPRINGS VILLAGE VARIOUS LOTS 2ND AMD
Tract: DESERT SPRINGS VILLAGE VARIOUS LOTS 2ND AMD
Status: Active
Welcome home! This spacious 4 bedroom Avondale home is located in the Desert Springs community, which also offers a community swimming pool and neighborhood park. In the kitchen you will find granite counters, a kitchen island, and a walk-in pantry. Additional storage cabinets are conveniently installed in the garage. Located on a corner lot, this home offers a spacious backyard with a covered patio for your enjoyment. Included with this home is an owned water softener, as well as, the washer and dryer! Schedule your private showing today!
Listed with Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$284,999 :: 750 E NORTHERN Avenue #2054, Phoenix AZ, 85020


2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,013 sq ft
Lot Size: 872 sq ft
Added: 12/16/22, Last Updated: 03/24/23
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6499481
Community: LAS BRISAS CONDOMINIUMS
Tract: LAS BRISAS CONDOMINIUMS
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/24/2023 by 1%
Status: Active
Located in the heart of Phoenix, this 2 bedroom 2 bathroom condominium welcomes you home! Step inside and be greeted with neutral tones, open concept, stainless steel appliances, upgraded cabinetry, and beautiful flooring throughout. Relax outside on your patio on a warm spring day and enjoy the beautiful greenery or grab a glass of wine and cozy up by the fireplace on a chilly winter night. The community pool can host all of your friends and family while you take advantage of the BBQ grills located nearby. Minutes from the freeway, shopping, dining, and more! Check it out today!
Listed with eXp Realty
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$439,900 :: 1025 E PIUTE Avenue, Phoenix AZ, 85024


4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,578 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 03/22/23, Last Updated: 03/22/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6534512
Community: COUNTRY PLACE 2
Tract: COUNTRY PLACE 2
Status: Active
Take a look at this remarkable move-in-ready residence now on the market! This beauty displays a large front yard, a 2-car garage, & a delightful front porch perfect for your morning coffee. Be welcomed by the semi-open floor plan featuring vaulted ceilings, lovely wood-look/tile flooring, a soothing palette, a cozy fireplace & sliding glass doors leading to the backyard. Cooking is a delight in the impeccable kitchen, providing plenty of white cabinets, ample counter space, & a walk-in pantry. The primary bedroom offers a sizable primary closet & a convenient private bathroom. You'll love hosting fun gatherings in the spacious backyard w/a covered patio & an incredible view of the blue skies! Minutes away from shopping spots, schools, & AZ-101. Don't let this one get away!
Listed with eXp Realty
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$260,000 :: 19826 N LAKE FOREST Drive, Sun City AZ, 85373


3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,416 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 09/30/22, Last Updated: 03/22/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6471425
Community: SUN CITY UNIT 51
Tract: SUN CITY UNIT 51
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/22/2023 by 20%
Status: Active
3 BDRM 2 BATH HOMEWITH BEIGE TILE T/OFOR EASY CLEAN.WHITE KITCH CABS,FRONT & REAR PATIO & WALKWAYS TILED. SATELITE DISH,HUGE LNDRY RM W/CABS 2 CAR GARAGE WITH CABINETS.
Listed with West USA Realty
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$425,000 :: 26429 S DARTFORD Drive, Sun Lakes AZ, 85248


2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,348 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 03/21/23, Last Updated: 03/21/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6533969
Community: SUN LAKES UNIT 15
Tract: SUN LAKES UNIT 15
Status: Active
Welcome home to this Sun Lakes beauty. This home features three sets of beautiful French doors, updated flooring throughout the entire home, new cabinets, new kitchen, new roof, full professional remodel and move in ready. This home has everything you are looking for and offers plenty of outdoor space with an enormous covered patio, spacious AZ room and large yard with citrus trees. This remarkable property is available for immediate sale. The seller is very responsive and the property is a perfect opportunity. Take advantage of this amazing opportunity.
Listed with American Allstar Realty
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$439,000 :: 4635 W T RYAN Lane, Laveen AZ, 85339


3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,332 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 03/17/23, Last Updated: 03/17/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6532689
Community: Rogers Ranch Unit 2
Tract: Rogers Ranch Unit 2
Status: Active
Listed with Realty Executives
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$270,000 :: 12638 N BLUE RIDGE Drive, Sun City AZ, 85351


2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,774 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 03/14/23, Last Updated: 03/14/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6531585
Community: SUN CITY UNIT 10A
Tract: SUN CITY UNIT 10A
Status: Active
Enjoy all of the amenities of this Active Adult community life in this adorable 2 bedroom 2 bath Sun City home. Ease of maintenance compliments the dessert landscaping in both the front and back yards. The primary suite has its own en-suite bath as well. Buyer and Buyer's Broker to verify any and all items that are of material issue. **HOA Fees, Amenities, etc. are estimates only, Buyer to verify prior to Close of Escrow. **
Listed with Legion Realty
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$340,000 :: 6447 S 18TH Street, Phoenix AZ, 85042


4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,951 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 02/02/23, Last Updated: 03/14/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6515544
Community: AMBERFIELD UNIT 1
Tract: AMBERFIELD UNIT 1
Status: Active
Adorable 4 bedroom 2.5 bath tri-level home in great central location on spacious over sized lot. This home features both a formal living and dining room along with a family room with fireplace. Spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet and counter space and most appliances. The primary suite has a walk out balcony with french doors and an en-suite bath with walk in closet. This home has it all! Plus NO HOA! Buyer and Buyer's Broker to verify any and all items that are of material issue.
Listed with Legion Realty
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$930,000 :: 12815 E BECKER Lane, Scottsdale AZ, 85259


5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,803 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 03/13/23, Last Updated: 03/13/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6530946
Community: RIO MONTANA PARCELS C & D LOT 1-175 TR A-D
Tract: RIO MONTANA PARCELS C & D LOT 1-175 TR A-D
Status: Active
Beautifully updated home with 5 bedrooms! Main bedroom has sitting area great for home office. Located next to NAOS that has a path allowing for a 3 minute walk to Desert Mountain High School and Mountainside Middle School. Right across Shea from Basis School...so an easy walk at the light to that school as well
Listed with Desert North Realty
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
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