Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

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$515,000 :: 1326 W CORAL REEF Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,048 sq ft
Lot Size: 2,178 sq ft
Added: 05/14/21, Last Updated: 05/14/21
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6234271
Community: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF
Tract: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF
Status: Active


Waterfront, lock and leave living at its best! This freshly updated townhome on the water in Islands is that perfect low maintenance, relaxing home you've been looking for. Dramatic double height ceilings in the living room welcome you to this well cared for and turn key property. Kitchen opens to the dining room and both share views of the water. Laundry, garage access, half bath and storage are downstairs. Upstairs you'll find 3 bedrooms and 2 more baths. Master bedroom boasts huge walk-in closet, snail shower & private, lakeside balcony. Solar tube skylights bring in lots of natural light while keeping the heat out. Secondary bedrooms have balcony access as well. Great location, close to freeways, shopping, schools and more. These units are rare in normal markets, so don't delay!

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$500,000 :: 1438 W CORAL REEF Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,289 sq ft
Lot Size: 1,743 sq ft
Added: 05/06/21, Last Updated: 05/13/21
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6232253
Community: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF Islands
Tract: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF Islands
Status: Active


You'll love this stunning waterfront home now available!! Enter home to see a dramatic entry with spiral-type staircase, a lovely den/office, and an open living room that overlooks the kitchen. Spotless kitchen has stainless steel appliances, center island w/breakfast bar, plenty of cabinets, and pantry. Upstairs, you'll find an adorable loft with a window bench! The master retreat includes sliding doors that open to a private balcony, large walk-in closet, a window bench, and a full bath w/dual sinks & separate tub/shower. Both of the additional bedrooms include private access to the balcony! Out back, spend relaxing evenings while gazing at the amazing lake which includes a private dock for your personal boat. This gem won't last on the market! Make an offer now!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty Phoenix


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$420,000 :: 1124 W EDGEWATER Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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2 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,358 sq ft
Lot Size: 2,178 sq ft
Added: 05/13/21, Last Updated: 05/13/21
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6234997
Community: COVE AT THE ISLANDS LOT 1-173 TR A-Z AA-DD
Tract: COVE AT THE ISLANDS LOT 1-173 TR A-Z AA-DD
Status: Active


Absolutely gorgeous Waterfront Townhome in Gilbert's The Islands Lake Community. Completely updated in recent years: new kitchen cabinets w SS appliances & quartz countertops, updated baths (master has walk-in tile & glass), carpet & tile, lighting, fans, int. paint, water heater & HVAC in 2017. You'll absolutely love living on the lake (boating, fishing, sunsets!). Perfect full-time residence or ''lock & leave'' vacation retreat. HOA maintains community pool, front landscaping, roof & ext paint. The Islands offers 3 lakes, walking/biking paths, large community park & social events (Concerts in The Park, Easter Egg Hunt, Holiday Boat Parades, Fall Car Show & more!) You'll truly love this home & community... just minutes away from downtown Gilbert and Chandler restaurant district!!

Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$725,000 :: 1302 W Windrift Way, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,023 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,197 sq ft
Added: 04/22/21, Last Updated: 05/12/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6223848
Community: SANDCASTLE VILLAGE
Tract: SANDCASTLE VILLAGE
The price of this listing was last increased on 5/10/2021 by 4%
Status: Active


WELCOME TO YOUR PRIVATE ''OASIS'' IN THE ARIZONA DESERT! ** BRAND NEW TILE ROOF TO BE INSTALLED, JUNE 1ST! 10 YR WARRANTY! BRAND NEW A/C UNIT TO BE INSTALLED 5/20! INVESTOR VERY RARE OPPORTUNITY! ENJOY THE STUNNING VIEWS FROM THIS CORNER LOT WATERFRONT HOME! THE LAKE IS A PRIVATE LAKE THAT ALLOWS ELECTRIC PONTOON BOATS FOR YOUR EVENING COCKTAIL CRUISE!! THIS GORGEOUS HOME BOASTS A LARGE DIVNG POOL, HOT TUB AND PRIVATE DOCK THAT YOU CAN FISH FROM! RECENTLY REMODELED! PRIVATE LAKE DIRECT ACCESS! THREE BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS WITH AN ADDITIONAL LOFT! NORTH/SOUTH EXPOSURE!LIVE THE GOOD LIFE HERE IN THE ''ISLANDS!'' OWNER/AGENT

Listed with Apartments Now


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$669,000 :: 395 W Sagebrush Street, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,993 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 05/08/21, Last Updated: 05/08/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6233471
Community: LAGO ESTANCIA
Tract: LAGO ESTANCIA
Status: Active


Beautiful home on a premium lake front lot in the amazing community of Lago Estancia. Open floor plan with four bedrooms, loft and 2.5 baths. Amazing kitchen with upgraded cabinetry, plentiful pantry space. Flooring and bath finishes in tile, travertine, marble and slate. Upper level has solid French maritime pine flooring. 60k in upgrades since 2019 include new roof, high efficiency windows, AC system, exterior paint and pool. Serene backyard features two large covered patios, remodeled private pool, incredible lake views. One of very few homes with direct private lake access and no walking path traffic. Minutes from old town Gilbert on the water canal. Community has picnic area, walking and bike paths, children's park with playground. Don't miss this very special home.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,700,000 :: 188 N SHORE Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 5,150 sq ft
Lot Size: 20,038 sq ft
Added: 05/07/21, Last Updated: 05/07/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6233011
Community: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES
Tract: CRYSTAL POINT ESTATES
Status: Active


Amazing Custom home in your own gated Championship Private Water Ski lake with private dock. Heated Spa & Pool, commercial mist system, pool air conditioning & mist system. Fire pit system, back yard lake lined Tiki torches propane underground system, 40 ft slide gates at pool for lake view pool, 3 bedrooms + office on main level & 3.5 bathrooms. All bedrooms have private bathrooms, gas fireplaces and outside fire features, fire pits propane driven, game room upstairs with full bar, half bathroom, card room & deck overlooking the water and pool below. Gourmet kitchen with Dacor gas range, beautiful slab granite counters and monster walk in pantry. Full home security system & full property sound system, Property will convey AS IS - 50 Amp service at South side of home for RV hookup.

Listed with Prime House LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$575,900 :: 1025 W PENINSULA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,787 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 12/05/20, Last Updated: 01/27/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6156476
Community: WINDHAVEN
Tract: WINDHAVEN
Status: Active


BEST PRICED WATERFRONT ISLAND HM.N/S.EXP.OVER 10K SF WATERFRT VIEW LOT W/94 FEET OF WATER FRONT & APPROX.120FT DEEP LOT.PRVT DOCK BRIGHT&OPEN.FORMAL LVG;DININGNOOK+FR.VAULTED CEILING.UPDATED FLOORING;GRANITE COUNTER KITCHEN CABINETS;WHITE WOOD SHUTTERS.SECURITY DRS@ENTRY&BACK PATIO DBL FRENCH DOOR. OVER-SIZED COV'D PATIO.WET BAR W/GRANITE COUNTER.ALL BATHS HAVE BEEN REMODELED.MASSIVE MASTER BR W/HIS&HER'S CLOSETSSEP.TUB/SHOWER.2 SINKS W/SPACIOUS COUNTER SPACE&STORAGE.DBL FRENCH DOOR W/SEC.IRON GATE WALK ON TO PVT WATER FRONT VIEW DECK FOR YOUR LEISURE MORNING RELAXATION -THEN RETURN TO ENJOY THE INCREDIBLE ARIZONA SUNSET-LIFE IS JUST PERFECT HERE. HURRY! CALL NOW FOR YOUR PRIVATE TOUR ARRANGEMENT. MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE. MASKS REQUIRED WHILE ON THE PREMISE.

Listed with FDR Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

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