Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

Arizona Monsoon Storms

Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$599,900 :: 136 N STARBOARD Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,177 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 09/20/21, Last Updated: 09/20/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6295652
Community: EAST LAKE AT WIND DRIFT LOT 1-46 TR A,B
Tract: EAST LAKE AT WIND DRIFT LOT 1-46 TR A,B
Status: Active


Welcome to the waterfront community of East Lake in central Gilbert. This 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home has been remodeled from the studs and shows like a new build model. The pictures tell the story! All mechanicals are brand new... a/c units/air handler and ducting & water heater. All flooring (tile and carpet new). Amazing designer touches in all bathrooms. Oversized master bedroom with lake views master bath features tiled stand alone shower with seamless glass enclosure and separate soaker tub. Different cabinet finishes in all 3 bathrooms and kitchen. Spacious kitchen with white shaker cabinets, some with pull out shelving, new disposal and faucet sink combo. Breakfast bar and eat in area. Family room (with fireplace) right off the kitchen which makes a good entertaining space.

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$760,000 :: 602 N Mondel Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

Mls Icon

5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,943 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,584 sq ft
Added: 05/19/21, Last Updated: 09/16/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6226707
Community: Playa Del Rey
Tract: Playa Del Rey
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/16/2021 by 2%
Status: Active


FULLY PAID Solar Panels with back up battery keeps your electricity bills to a minimum. Popular DUAL master bedrooms plan. Gated Ski lake community. True to the builders name AMZ, you are greeted into this Amazing home with crystal chandeliers, magnificent ceilings, brand new neutral paint. Two master suites included in 5 extra large bedrooms PLUS Loft, multiple rooms with walk-in closets. Owner extended the covered patio to include patio cover in the formal area. Master Balcony looks into the beautiful treelined waters. You will experience views from Family Room, Living Room, Guest room and both the Master Suites. Kitchen has exceptional quality cherry cabinets that are so hard to find these days. New Carpet, new paint in the garage, entertaining Ramada, Barbecue with granite counters.

Listed with United Brokers Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$560,000 :: 1442 W CORAL REEF Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

Mls Icon

3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,289 sq ft
Lot Size: 1,743 sq ft
Added: 06/18/21, Last Updated: 09/09/21
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6239386
Community: the islandstownhomes on coral reef
Tract: the islandstownhomes on coral reef
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/9/2021 by 2%
Status: Active


Lake front property! Bring your paddle boats, pontoons, kyaks, paddle boards, canoes and troll around in these beautiful water. This fantastic water front property is waiting for you to call it home. Liveable floor plan. Beautiful views from your patio and balcony. Travetine floors, master travertine shower and surrounds- spacious bedrooms, open greatroom and kitchen with beautiful granite counters and island. Den downstairs and loft upstairs. Perfect lock and leave home as the HOA maintains outside. Just put in a boat dock and you are ready to relax and have fun right out your backdoor.

Listed with HomeSmart Lifestyles


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,287,461 :: 1452 E BLUE RIDGE Way, Gilbert AZ, 85298

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,949 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,633 sq ft
Added: 07/28/21, Last Updated: 09/02/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6270680
Community: HAMSTRA DAIRY PHASE 1 REPLAT
Tract: HAMSTRA DAIRY PHASE 1 REPLAT
The price of this listing was last increased on 9/2/2021 by 0%
Status: Active


Located in the master-planned community of Waterston with a 7-acre Central Park and Lake this single story MODEL home features black gourmet stainless steel appliances with a G.E. 36'' gas cooktop, double wall ovens, professional 36'' vented hood, microwave, dishwasher and refrigerator, granite and quartz kitchen countertops, designer kitchen backsplash, Timberlake Portfolio Lusanne maple truffle kitchen cabinets, oversized kitchen island, two-tone interior paint, 12' ceiling at great room, walk-in shower at primary bath, stackable washer and dryer at primary suite closet, slider at gameroom, exterior fireplace in courtyard, exterior French door at primary suite, professionally landscaped front and back, pavers at driveway and porch and so much more. Close of escrow on or before 11/15/21

Listed with Tri Pointe Homes Arizona Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$349,900 :: 2670 S VOYAGER Drive #109, Gilbert AZ, 85295

Property Photo

Mls Icon

2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,006 sq ft
Lot Size: 872 sq ft
Added: 08/23/21, Last Updated: 08/23/21
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6283225
Community: VAL VISTA CLASSIC PARCEL 3 CONDOMINIUM AMD
Tract: VAL VISTA CLASSIC PARCEL 3 CONDOMINIUM AMD
Status: Active


Located in the highly sought after GATED neighborhood of Annecy. This spectacular residence sits on the waterfront within a gated community that is close to great schools, shopping, fine dining, freeways, hospitals and more. This residence features a spacious kitchen with granite counters, upgraded cabinets, stainless steel appliances & tile backsplash. Kitchen opens to a great room and has tile & bamboo wood flooring, beautiful window treatments, vaulted ceilings and numerous decorative touches. Master bedroom includes a large master bathroom and walk-in closet. 2nd bedroom/den + additional full bathroom. Downstairs features a 2nd family room. 2 car garage with cabinets, work bench and plenty of storage room.

Listed with Venture REI, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,100,000 :: 1817 E BAY TREE Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

Mls Icon

3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,780 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,762 sq ft
Added: 08/06/21, Last Updated: 08/06/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6264581
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Status: Active


Beautiful custom waterfront home in gated Lakeside subdivision at Val Vista Lakes. Relax and enjoy the sunsets in your pool or spa while enjoying the gorgeous lake views! Take a spin around the lake at sunset and stop for a concert on the lake or meet friends at the clubhouse! Large bedroom suites up and down. Upstairs suite has large balcony and walk-in closets with separate tub and shower. Rare extended length, temperature controlled RV Garage for a boat, Razor or trailered toys. (Not motorhome height) Unique garage could allow more than 3 autos.

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$575,900 :: 1025 W PENINSULA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,787 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 12/05/20, Last Updated: 01/27/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6156476
Community: WINDHAVEN
Tract: WINDHAVEN
Status: Active


BEST PRICED WATERFRONT ISLAND HM.N/S.EXP.OVER 10K SF WATERFRT VIEW LOT W/94 FEET OF WATER FRONT & APPROX.120FT DEEP LOT.PRVT DOCK BRIGHT&OPEN.FORMAL LVG;DININGNOOK+FR.VAULTED CEILING.UPDATED FLOORING;GRANITE COUNTER KITCHEN CABINETS;WHITE WOOD SHUTTERS.SECURITY DRS@ENTRY&BACK PATIO DBL FRENCH DOOR. OVER-SIZED COV'D PATIO.WET BAR W/GRANITE COUNTER.ALL BATHS HAVE BEEN REMODELED.MASSIVE MASTER BR W/HIS&HER'S CLOSETSSEP.TUB/SHOWER.2 SINKS W/SPACIOUS COUNTER SPACE&STORAGE.DBL FRENCH DOOR W/SEC.IRON GATE WALK ON TO PVT WATER FRONT VIEW DECK FOR YOUR LEISURE MORNING RELAXATION -THEN RETURN TO ENJOY THE INCREDIBLE ARIZONA SUNSET-LIFE IS JUST PERFECT HERE. HURRY! CALL NOW FOR YOUR PRIVATE TOUR ARRANGEMENT. MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE. MASKS REQUIRED WHILE ON THE PREMISE.

Listed with FDR Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *