Half way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?
2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in 2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011. Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013? Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.
The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market
The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city. Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of foreclosure and short sale transactions. The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out. In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now 30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 
16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%. Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.
One of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years. By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004! Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.
Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?
A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer. A review of the chart to the right shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010. Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end of 2004, to a low at the end of March 2013. So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.
More homes on the market in some cities
Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue). Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer. Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.
And Interest Rates. . . .
The effect of interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation. Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month for principal and interest. With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home. When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.
So tell us about prices….
I know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going? Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012. For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.
Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012. The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.
Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale. Obviously, within each city there will be 
variations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc. If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.
A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power. Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market. Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!
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$639,000 :: 1357 W PORT A SAIL Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233
3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 1,797 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,921 sq ft
Added: 09/29/23, Last Updated: 10/02/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6608744
Community: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 1 & 2
Tract: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 1 & 2
Status: Active
Come see this stunning, updated waterfront home in the highly coveted gated community - the Falls in the Islands! This home features an eat-in kitchen with granite countertops, cherry cabinetry, a wine nook, beverage cooler and new stainless steel appliances. Cozy up next to the fireplace in the Livingroom which overlooks the serene waterfront, with sounds of the waterfalls. The granite countertops and cherry cabinetry continue throughout the laundry room, office and 3 ba. Gorgeous marble tiles adorn the floors, along with the master shower and tub. This home is just steps away from the community pool and Spa. HOA includes both the front & backyard landscaping as well as exterior painting every 7 yrs. There's a Tesla EV Charger and Ring security sys. 2 New ACs, Roof and Water Heater
Listed with Real Broker AZ, LLC
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$1,499,999 :: 1232 W EDGEWATER Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233
5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,032 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 09/15/23, Last Updated: 10/01/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6605570
Community: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS UNIT 4
Tract: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS UNIT 4
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/1/2023 by 3%
Status: Active
**FULLY RENOVATED WATERFRONT HOME** Located in the highly sought-after Islands community of Gilbert, this home has undergone a breathtaking remodel from the inside out. From the moment you arrive, you'll be captivated by the stunning curb appeal and the serene water views. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to own a truly exceptional home in a remarkable location. **See docs tab for a full list of upgrades including: artificial turf in the back/front yards, fresh interior/exterior paint, all new flooring, high end appliances, waterfall quartzite countertops, shaker cabinets, contemporary tile, recessed lighting, elegant chandeliers, and so much more! 3 Car garage w/4th bay + Golf Cart Parking. This exceptional property offers not just a home, but a lifestyle. Make it yours today!
Listed with Real Estate Brokers of Arizona
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$1,595,000 :: 1726 E QUEEN PALM Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234
4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,134 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,326 sq ft
Added: 09/14/23, Last Updated: 09/28/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6599248
Community: VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/28/2023 by 6%
Status: Active
This custom home was exquisitely designed to make lasting memories and for all to enjoy. Situated on a premier waterfront lot with stunning views across the main, multi-use lake in one of the Valley's highly coveted master-planned community, Val Vista Lakes. Enjoy using your own private dock and pontoon. Holidays are one-of-a-kind with homes & boats lighting up the lake. This lifestyle community offers activities & events for everyone's interests. Val Vista Lakes features 900 acres of sports parks, bike paths and luxurious clubhouse. The clubhouse includes tennis, pickle-ball, indoor racquetball courts, cardio & weight training facilities, junior Olympic swimming pool & spa, banquet & meeting rooms, waterfalls, tropical lagoon swimming pool with a sandy beach. Enjoy your
Listed with Keller Williams Realty East Valley
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$699,999 :: 610 S MARINA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233
3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,128 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 09/24/23, Last Updated: 09/24/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6606365
Community: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 1 & 2
Tract: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 1 & 2
Status: Active
Private gated community waterfront house with gorgeous water & waterfall views! Amazing floor plan with loft & skylights. Beautiful hickory hardwood floors on stairs & upper level with tile on lower level. New HVACs (both replaced 8/2023); New windows dual pane (2016). New interior paint (9/2023). Stove is electric but has gas stub. HOA maintains front/rear landscaping, exterior paint, streets, gates, pool area. Short walk to the community pool with more water views, plenty of shade & BBQ's. The Islands has a plethora of paths/trails, playgrounds, basketball, sand volleyball, bocce, community dock, catch & release fishing, shaded ramadas with grills and much more. Welcome Home!
Listed with HomeSmart
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$659,000 :: 1353 W CRYSTAL SPRINGS Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233
3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,150 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,921 sq ft
Added: 09/21/23, Last Updated: 09/21/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6606304
Community: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 1 & 2
Tract: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 1 & 2
Status: Active
Embrace this newly remodeled Home. New luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. American maple white cabinets, quartz counters with walk-in pantry. Both bathroom have matching cabinetry ,tile and countertops keeping the symmetry of the home. Tile patio deck. Cozy loft with skylight. Roof and skylight proximately five years old .Both AC units are 3 years old. Roof and AC units have a 10 year warranty. Water heater two years old updated windows. New Whole House water softener. HOA dues include the lakeside community pool, front & back yard landscaping and painting the house every 7 years.
Listed with Real Broker AZ, LLC
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$1,635,000 :: 1507 E TREASURE COVE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234
3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,633 sq ft
Lot Size: 14,375 sq ft
Added: 08/30/23, Last Updated: 09/20/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6596878
Community: West Lake Estates of Val Vista Lakes
Tract: West Lake Estates of Val Vista Lakes
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/20/2023 by 3%
Status: Active
Welcome to this stunning single-level home nestled in the coveted Val Vista Lakes community in Gilbert, AZ. With picturesque waterfront views, this home offers the epitome of tranquil lakeside living. Boasting 3 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms, this meticulously designed home provides both elegance and comfort. The open-concept living area showcases ample natural light, highlighting the captivating lake views from various angles.A gourmet kitchen awaits, featuring modern appliances, granite countertops, and an island that's perfect for both meal preparation and casual dining.The primary bedroom suite is a retreat in itself, boasting panoramic lake views and direct access to the outdoor patio. The en-suite bathroom is a sanctuary of relaxation, equipped with dual sinks, a luxurious
Listed with Call Realty, Inc.
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$629,000 :: 1413 W CLEAR SPRING Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233
3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 1,797 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 09/16/23, Last Updated: 09/20/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6602973
Community: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 1 & 2
Tract: CORAL POINT REPLAT LOT 1 & 2
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/20/2023 by 2%
Status: Active
Fantastic lakefront opportunity priced to sell!! This amazing home offers 3 bedrooms 3 baths. Fish or boat from your very own backyard! This lakeside community provides access to parks, walking trails, and a community pool and spa to enjoy. With easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment options, you'll have everything you need within a short drive.
Listed with Real Broker AZ, LLC
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$2,000,000 :: 1750 E COCO PALM Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234
4 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 3,421 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,197 sq ft
Added: 05/26/23, Last Updated: 09/16/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6560481
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/16/2023 by 5%
Status: Active
Sophistication and style meets waterfront. Elegant single level living await you in this beautifully updated home. Expansive lake views from this lot on the point allow for privacy in the pool and spa. Entire wall of glass slides open giving you large spaces to entertain from the outdoor to indoor kitchen and dining areas. Dreamy kitchen with Thermador 8 burner gas burner stove & dual ovens, Thermador side by side refrigerator and large island with seating for 6. Need Storage? This house has it! Large open family room, dinette & kitchen. All ensuite bedrooms have walk-in closets. Enjoy the outdoor lifestyle with the covered outdoor kitchen that includes a green egg smoker and gas bar-b-que. Heated pool and spa with negative edge so you can soak up the sun with friends or soothe those
Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$1,350,000 :: 2004 E CATAMARAN Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234
4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,038 sq ft
Lot Size: 14,375 sq ft
Added: 05/27/23, Last Updated: 09/07/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6558805
Community: The Regatta at Val Vista
Tract: The Regatta at Val Vista
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/7/2023 by 4%
Status: Active
Custom waterfront home on the Regatta Lake. Beautiful property on a large lot in gated Val Vista Lakes subdivision. 4 -car garage with a large driveway in a cul-de-sac makes this a one-of-a kind !
Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$797,000 :: 1248 W EDGEWATER Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233
5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,719 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 05/11/23, Last Updated: 09/01/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6550410
Community: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS UNIT 4
Tract: CATALINA BAY AT THE ISLANDS UNIT 4
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/1/2023 by 3%
Status: Active
SPECTACULAR WATERFRONT LOCATION WITH OUTSTANDING VIEWS ! This property is tucked away in a quiet Cul-De-Sac on a North South facing lot. There are 5 bdrms and 3 baths. The master bedroom is oversized with a full length patio overlooking the lake & 2 closets. . Relaxing great room includes a cozy fireplace & great views of the backyard. It's all LAKE in the backyard. You'll never want to leave! There's a large community park within walking distances that includes lots of social events including Concerts in The Park, Easter Egg Hunt, Holiday Boat Parades, fall Car Show & more! You'll truly love this home & community. It's centrally located and just minutes away from downtown Gilbert and Chandler. Both have an abundance of restaurants & things to do for all ages. Both AC units 3 yrs old
Listed with Real Broker AZ, LLC
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
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