Phoenix real estate market trend – 2013 first half

FountainHalf way into 2013 – Where’s Phoenix Real Estate Going and Why?

2012 was a good year for real estate in Phoenix, and the question going into 2013 is “Can prices continue to go up like they did in  2012?” Price appreciation in 2012 in many cities resulted in appreciation over 20%, and sellers eagerly want prices to climb back to 2005 – 2006 levels after enduring 4 brutal years leading up to the market bottom in 2011.  Buyers are also asking what has happened to distressed properties in 2013?  Are foreclosures/short sales coming back? Is the end to the recent price increase right around the corner? Now that we’re more than half way into 2013, the answer to these questions is becoming evident.

 

Distressed Sales by City July 2013

The healing continues for the Phoenix real estate market

The graph to the right is one of my favorite graphs because it is an indicator of market distress within each city.  Instead of throwing out a broad market statistic, the true health of each city is indicated by the percentage of  foreclosure and short sale transactions.  The real substance to this snapshot is the comparison to previous years. To see how far we’ve come, click back to this same chart 2 years ago in 2011, right when the market was bottoming out.  In July 2011, 85% of Avondale’s sales were distress, now  30%. Chandler was over 65%, now its at 2013 Pending Foreclosures graph16%. Mesa distressed sales as a percentage of total sales were over 70%, and have now decreased to 22%. Gilbert went from 63% to 17%. Even Tolleson which saw distressed sales over 90% of total sales two years ago have plummeted to less than 40%.  Many bargain hunting buyers have also noticed the scarcity of short sales and foreclosures that were a source of low priced properties.

One  of the reasons is the continued reduction in pending foreclosures over the past 3 years.  By the end of the year, the pending foreclosures should be where they were in 2004!  Increasing prices have also reduced short sales by reducing the underwater properties.

Cash Buyers – Are they still out there?2013 Cash Purchases

A popular topic regarding who is buying real estate in Phoenix turns to investors. Frequently, first time home buyers will recount how many times they submitted offers only to lose to a cash buyer.  A review of the chart to the right  shows a steady decrease in purchases of homes with cash since the beginning of 2012. The most recent value of 29% is the lowest since June 2010.   Since 2008, the increase in cash purchases, many by investors is supported by the fact that homeownership has decreased from 69.2% at the end  of 2004,  to a low at the end of March 2013.  So are cash buyers still out there? “Yes”, but the trend is downward as prices rise, ROI decreases and distressed sales diminish.

More homes on the market in some cities

Gilbert Historical listings

Some valley cities are have seen a rise in inventory. It is amazing to see the dramatic fluctuation we’ve experienced over the last 3 years. The graph to the right shows Gilbert inventory or homes for sale going back  to Nov. 2010 when the majority of listings were either foreclosures(brown) or short sales (light blue).  Currently in Gilbert and the rest of the valley, listings of normal sales(blue) are higher than they’ve been in at least 3 years. Buyers looking for foreclosures and short sales are finding fewer and fewer.  Other cities also seeing a rise in inventory in the last 4 – 6 months include Avondale, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Tempe, Queen Creek and Phoenix. Some cities that have seen a reduction in inventory or maintain current levels in the last 4 – 6 months; Gold Canyon, Goodyear, Scottsdale, Sun City, Sun Lakes and Surprise. Age restricted communities typically see inventory listings increase the last half of the year.

And Interest Rates. . . .

The effect of  interest rates must be factored into the demand side of the equation.  Rates in the last couple of months have risen by more than 1%. To see the effect that this can have, consider a buyer that can afford $1,200/month  for principal and interest.  With a 10% down payment and a 4% interest rate, the buyer can afford a $280,000 home.  When interest rates go up to 5%, that same $1,200 per month mortgage allows the  buyer to purchase a $250,000 home. That 1% rise in rates reduced the purchasing power by $30,000.

So tell us about prices….

Mesa 2013 GraphI know that you’ve kept reading so you can get to the good stuff, where are prices going?   Every city saw significant appreciation during 2012.  For many cities the start of 2013 is an extension of last year. However, there is moderation or reduction of appreciation in others as measured by the average price $/sq.ft. For example, Mesa is showing 13% year to date as seen in the graph to the left, and may come close to that seen in 2012.Goodyear 2013 Graph

Other cities such as Surprise, Scottsdale, Sun Lakes, Gold Canyon, Sun City West, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Goodyear have seen weaker appreciation when viewing appreciation measured by Average Price$/Sq.Ft. of sold homes and may not reach the levels they saw during 2012.  The graph to the right shows appreciation for Goodyear which is at about 6% year to date appreciation, about half that of Mesa’s.

Cities that have shown strong positive appreciation during the first half of the year include Avondale, Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Mesa, and Glendale.  Obviously, within each city there will be 2013 Gilbert Graphvariations depending on square footage, year built, price point, features, condition, lot size, etc.   If you’d like me to review comparable sales for your property, click on What’s the Value of My Home. To receive available homes for sale, click on Send Me New Listings.

A reduced appreciation rate compared to 2012 is understandable as prices continue to climb when buyer’s income isn’t increasing as rapidly and the increase in mortgage interest rates reduces buying power.  Coupled with the reduction in distressed properties points to the Phoenix market and surrounding cities returning to a more normal market.  Wow, its been a long time since we’ve seen one of those!

 

Other posts in the blog

Arizona Monsoon Storms

Are addresses in Phoenix cities that helpful?

Who loses on a foreclosure, the bank? Think Again!

 

$950,000 :: 1850 E LAKECREST Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,501 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,326 sq ft
Added: 08/26/22, Last Updated: 12/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6455270
Community: CRYSTAL SHORES AMD LOT 1-82 TR A-I
Tract: CRYSTAL SHORES AMD LOT 1-82 TR A-I
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/2/2022 by 4%
Status: Active


Incredible Single Level Waterfront Executive Beauty! Gorgeous HUGE Kitchen, Extended 3 car garage plus over $140,000 in recent updates and upgrades. Split Master plan, 3 full Baths! There is a huge bonus room-office right off the impressive entry hall and 2 secondary bedrooms and 2nd bath split on opposite side of home. There is also a 3rd bath with huge shower across from the office/bonus room. Lots of windows overlook lake & the 2 year new pool and putting green that lead to the boat dock with access to the amazing Val Vista Lakes main lake so you can boat to the clubhouse from this home! The incredible hot tub is also part of resort backyard w/2 covered patios on huge north/south lot on the corner of a cul-de-sac. VVL features Clubhouse, Pickleball & Tennis, Pools, Workout & More!

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$874,900 :: 572 E JANET Way, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 3,753 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,504 sq ft
Added: 11/03/22, Last Updated: 12/01/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6482929
Community: LAYTON LAKES PARCEL 1 2ND AMD
Tract: LAYTON LAKES PARCEL 1 2ND AMD
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/1/2022 by 0%
Status: Active


MOTIVATED SELLER! Your dream Oasis waits for you with this gorgeous home in Layton Lakes on a spacious 13,500 sq ft lot. This home boasts over 3700 sq ft and features 5 bedrooms, 4.5 baths as well as a loft and office/den. A large kitchen with a huge dining area, separate dining room, butler's pantry, oversized laundry with outdoor access, living room, and family room round out the downstairs offerings. The oversized three-car garage has been designed for storage and functionality with custom storage options including cabinets, storage racks, and slat wall. It also includes an outlet for an EV car charging station. Relax in the backyard in a 20x40 pool with a grotto water feature and above ground spa without the worry of having neighbors behind you. The neighborhood amenities

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$999,999 :: 2111 E GONDOLA Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,505 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,455 sq ft
Added: 09/02/22, Last Updated: 11/25/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6459011
Community: REGATTA AT VAL VISTA LAKES AMD LOT 1-108
Tract: REGATTA AT VAL VISTA LAKES AMD LOT 1-108
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/25/2022 by 9%
Status: Active


Absolutely gorgeous, waterfront, single level, North/South facing custom home perfectly situated in the highly desired gated community of Regatta at Val Vista Lakes. Luxury vinyl flooring throughout. Herringbone tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stunning quartz countertops in the kitchen/bathrooms. Raised vanities in all 3 bathrooms. Custom upgraded tile in all the shower/bath areas. Unique and fun loft for a bonus room. Sparkling pool overlooking the breathtaking lake. 3 car garage including epoxy flooring and built-in cabinets. Cul-de-sac lot. Val Vista Lakes features a multi-million-dollar clubhouse and all its amenities such as the beautiful waterfalls, junior Olympic heated pool, beach laguna pool, jacuzzi, cabana's, ramada's, 8 outdoor tennis courts, 3 racquetball rooms, locker rooms,

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$999,000 :: 1910 E BAY TREE Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,493 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,326 sq ft
Added: 08/27/22, Last Updated: 11/16/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6428629
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/3/2022 by 5%
Status: Active


Buyer did not qualify ** Highly desirable gated Lakeside Community single level custom waterfront home in Val Vista Lakes ** Spacious entry leads to living room and dining room ** Kitchen features granite counter tops with seating at island, stainless steel appliances, custom wood cabinets and bay window eating area for views of pool and lake ** Remodeled master bathroom features heated floor , huge tiled walk in shower , and vanity seating area ** Walk in closet with shelving for your shoes and great views of swimming pool and lake ** Wall of windows in kitchen/family room overlooks covered patio, beautiful swimming pool and lake ** Large dock for boating or kayaking to clubhouse to swim at the sandy beach pool ** Other extras include solar panels, and new windows on north side of home

Listed with Penfield Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$659,000 :: 1446 W CORAL REEF Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.75 baths
Home size: 2,289 sq ft
Lot Size: 2,178 sq ft
Added: 11/10/22, Last Updated: 11/15/22
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6483428
Community: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF
Tract: TOWNHOMES ON CORAL REEF
Status: Active


LAKE FRONT PROPERTY! Come see this stunning 3-bed, 3 bath, loft area plus den Coral Reef WATERFRONT home! Featuring a 2 car garage w/built-in cabinets. Enter home from the custom security door to be greeted by the welcoming foyer flowing into the family room. The adjacent open kitchen features white cabinets, custom pantry with drawers, a slab granite island, tile backsplash, SS appliances including a beverage refrigerator. Dramatic curved staircase leads to the dual door main bedroom offering a sitting room, private balcony access overlooking tranquil lake views, lavish en suite w/2 sinks & separate tub and shower.. Lovely backyard with a patio space and an amazing view of the shimmering lake! The owner has added a central vacuum, plantation shutters, landscaping and paint throughout.

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$949,000 :: 1560 W COMMERCE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,861 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,584 sq ft
Added: 10/08/22, Last Updated: 11/14/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6474273
Community: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
Tract: PLAYA DEL REY AMENDED
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/14/2022 by 5%
Status: Active


WATER SKI LAKE FRONT PROPERTY!!, The only home on ARMLS on the water ski lake in the gated community of Play Del Rey. This update to the interior of this home was just completed, new flooring, SS appliances including a new built-in ice maker, trash compactor, microwave, smooth top range, built-in oven and dishwasher. New light fixtures and more. Amazing views across the back of the home of the negavite edge pool with hot tub, fire pots and built in BBQ perfect for entertaining. Ski year round right from your back yard with direct access to the lake from your backyard. 3 car garage with builtin cabinets for lots of storage.

Listed with Kenneth James Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,025,000 :: 1700 E LAKESIDE Drive #31, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,158 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,228 sq ft
Added: 08/19/22, Last Updated: 11/11/22
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6452157
Community: BRECKENRIDGE BAY LOT 1-65 TR A-I
Tract: BRECKENRIDGE BAY LOT 1-65 TR A-I
The price of this listing was last reduced on 11/11/2022 by 2%
Status: Active


Highly sought after Breckenridge Bay Waterfront townhouse in Val Vista Lakes. They spared no expense in updating this home starting from the beautiful iron front entrance door into the open foyer with 25 foot ceilings and sweeping staircase. Dramatic slate tile throughout lower level and into the contemporary kitchen overlooking the lake and peaceful back yard. Formal dining room or home office with large picture window with views to the front entrance sanctuary. Family room has huge floor to ceiling sliding glass doors with unrestricted views to the back yard, lake and distant mountains.Sit by the stone fireplace and relax w/friends.Behind the wrought iron staircase you'll find you're personal wine cellar, home office or main floor bedroom and bathroom. Laundry room is on the main level

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$599,000 :: 1334 W Coral Reef Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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2 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,048 sq ft
Lot Size: 2,178 sq ft
Added: 09/30/22, Last Updated: 10/30/22
Property Type: Condo/Townhouse/Co-Op
MLS Number: 6471460
Community: The Islands
Tract: The Islands
Status: Active


Beautiful waterfront home located in the desirable Gilbert community ''The Islands''! The Newly updated 1st floor has Brazilian Quartzite countertops in the kitchen, laundry & powder bath. Kitchen includes two ovens, glass cooktop stove, built -in microwave, lg walk-in pantry w/ etched glass door and built-in China cabinet. Luxury flooring includes 24''X24'' tile in downstairs area, wood flooring on stairs/loft area, & new carpet in bedrooms. Master B/R has beautiful lake views with balcony. Master bath has walk-in shower, lg soaking tub, double sinks, vanity area, spacious walk-in closet. Additional balcony located off 2nd b/r and loft area. French doors open to the spacious patio area where you enjoy gorgeous sunsets, kayaking, fishing, boating, lake life at it's best!

Listed with Peak Realty Advisors


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,545,000 :: 1901 E CYPRESS TREE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 5,196 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,326 sq ft
Added: 09/21/22, Last Updated: 10/13/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6465192
Community: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
Tract: LAKESIDE AT VAL VISTA LAKES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/13/2022 by 3%
Status: Active


Welcome to beautiful Val Vista Lakes featuring your remodeled lakefront dream home. 5 bed, 4.5 bath, 5,000+ sqft, 3 car garage plus a basement. New high-end Anderson windows, new flooring, new bathrooms and a stunning kitchen with large island and gorgeous views of the lake. Whether you want to enjoy a good workout in the gym, watch a movie in the theatre or do crafts in the craft room, this home has it all! The primary suite offers a sitting area, extra large bedroom and 2 custom walk in closets. Head outside to enjoy the grassy yard, pool and your very own boat dock. Taking sunset cruises will be your new favorite way to wind down. Come make 1901 E Cypress Tree your new Home!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$774,900 :: 501 E Hearne Way, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,020 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 10/01/22, Last Updated: 10/01/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6471644
Community: Stonebridge Estates
Tract: Stonebridge Estates
Status: Active


Welcome to Stoneridge! Waterfront Home - Amazing views when you walk thru the front door to the lake, Open floor plan, soaring ceilings, Four bedrooms with 3.5 baths, Two owner suites, one up and one the main level. Main floor owner suite has access to the patio, large closets & the upstairs owner suite has it's own private balcony overlooking the lake. Chef's delight kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, walk in pantry, separate dining room/living and eat in kitchen, & amazing views of the lake. The family room has a wood burning fireplace to take the chill of on the cool winter evenings. Location, Location, Location - on the lake, walking distance to downtown. Complete home inspection done and repairs made prior to listing home! Check it out!

Listed with RE/MAX Excalibur


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

 

 

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