Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$750,000 :: 510 E MEADOWS Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,700 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 12/04/20, Last Updated: 12/04/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6167997
Community: CIRCLE G MEADOWS 2 AMD
Tract: CIRCLE G MEADOWS 2 AMD
Status: Active


If this home looks like it's been in a magazine, that's because it has! Remarkable home in Mature tree-filled neighborhood. Perfect location and NO HOA! Built by owner with care given to all the details. From 2x6 construction to self closing doors, you will feel the quality and attention these owners gave to this home. Beautifully redone kitchen. Real oak hardwood floors with 2 vapor barriers underneath. Remodeled bathrooms. Magnificent ceiling designs. Extra thick insulation helps to drastically reduce power bills. Wonderfully maintained yard and pool. All closets build by Classy Closets. 9 foot ceilings in BASEMENT instead of the usual 8. Windows are all low-e, heat reflective, double pane argon gas filled. Garage is insulated as well as the doors. Garage openings are custom 9 foot.

Listed with Platinum Realty Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$650,000 :: 1418 W EMERALD KEY Court, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,798 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,148 sq ft
Added: 12/04/20, Last Updated: 12/04/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6167989
Community: SHORES AT THE ISLANDS
Tract: SHORES AT THE ISLANDS
Status: Active


LAKE FRONT HOME in Cul-de-sac!! This is a 2800 sq. foot home with a pool!! Beautiful location on the point with 3 lake channels views in the sought-after ''Island'' community In Gilbert. There are 2 master suits, an additional setting room area, and have amazing lake views!! Master is one wing of the home, split, with 2 exits to the pool, lake and patio area!! Awesome backyard with incredible views, cover patio, boat dock, artificial grass, mature landscaping. Kitchen has granite, lots of counter space, gas cook top, duel ovens, stainless appliances and lots of cabinets. Eat in kitchen with great views!! Formal living/dining room, huge family room, 2-way fireplace, 2 upgraded 16 seer AC units, great community, walking, biking, volleyball and a lot more!!

Listed with The Manz Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$448,000 :: 3944 E E Perkinsville St Street, Gilbert AZ, 85295

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,866 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,228 sq ft
Added: 12/04/20, Last Updated: 12/04/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6167974
Community: COOLEY STATION PARCEL 15 PHASE 2
Tract: COOLEY STATION PARCEL 15 PHASE 2
Status: Active


Wood plank tile, Built in bar-b-que, paver patio, wainscotting throughout house, decorative windowsills. built in storage cabinets in garage, Crown moulding in Living, Master bedroom and hallways.

Listed with Homie


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,399,000 :: 2685 E CANYON Place, Chandler AZ, 85249

Property Photo

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6 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 5,880 sq ft
Lot Size: 18,731 sq ft
Added: 11/11/20, Last Updated: 12/04/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6151993
Community: SUNRISE MEADOWS ESTATES
Tract: SUNRISE MEADOWS ESTATES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/4/2020 by 7%
Status: Active


ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS 6 bed/4.5 bath 4 bedrooms upstairs and 2 downstairs. THE MASSIVE BASEMENT has a theater room, a game room, a wet bar 2 bedrooms and a full bath with double sinks.FANTASTIC KITCHEN has it all! Granite counters, gas stove, stainless steel appliances, large island, 2 pantries (1 is a walk-in pantry). & endless cabinet space, including 4 glass front cabinets.AWESOME Back yard for outdoor living.

Listed with Rader Realty, Inc.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$440,000 :: 1543 E IRONWOOD Drive, Chandler AZ, 85225

Property Photo

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,316 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,277 sq ft
Added: 12/04/20, Last Updated: 12/04/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6167971
Community: STRAWBERRY POINT 4 LOT 303-447
Tract: STRAWBERRY POINT 4 LOT 303-447
Status: Active


Take a look at this gorgeous home. You can see the pride of ownership everywhere. 4 bedrooms and 3 baths with one of the bedrooms and baths on the main floor perfect for use as a bedroom or home office. Appliances in kitchen are Stainless steel. Hard wood flooring adorns the staircase to the second level where you will find a loft area complete with additional cabinetry. Large master bedroom with bay window overlooking the lush backyard. The master shower has been updated with Glass surround. With 2 sinks, a Garden tub, private toilet room and a Large walk in closet this is quite the Owner's retreat. Front and backard are complete with a mix of Grass and gravel, full automatic watering systems and a automatic fertilizing system for all shrubs and grass.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$450,000 :: 234 S LAKEVIEW Boulevard, Chandler AZ, 85225

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,922 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 12/03/20, Last Updated: 12/04/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6162000
Community: SPRINGS
Tract: SPRINGS
Status: Active


Month to Month Tenant Occupied Waterfront property with Solar System installed! Enjoy this beautiful waterfront property in Chandler in the highly desired neighborhood ''The Springs''. This 3-bed/2-bath/2-story home offers : Granite counters, Upscale newer SS appliances, breakfast bar, pull out shelves, & plenty of storage in this eat-in kitchen. Family room has a wood-burning fireplace, Formal living area has upgraded wood-look tile & formal dining. Upstairs master retreat is split from other bedrooms. Step out onto the balcony & enjoy the wide lake view. Master bath has granite counters, tiled walk-in shower. Also included are instant hot water, whole-house humidifier, brand new dual pane fold-in windows, solar panels to avoid electric bill if not avoid most of it.

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$390,000 :: 533 W PRINCETON Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,182 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 12/04/20, Last Updated: 12/04/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6167946
Community: SILVERHAWKE 3
Tract: SILVERHAWKE 3
Status: Active


Location Location Location! Conveniently close to the newly revitalized Downtown Gilbert not to mention minutes from the 60 freeway too! This home has it all! Great backyard with no neighbor behind & covered patio, plus upgraded expensive beautiful dual pane energy efficient windows which are great for both sound and your electric bills! This home is nestled in the fantastic neighborhood of Silverhawke, featuring an elementary school within walking distance plus great parks! Arguably the most popular floorplan Trend Homes ever built, it's Great room with den/bedroom downstairs plus HUGE loft is perfectly laid out. Did we mention, the laundry room is conveniently located upstairs & the large Master features dual closets too? Kitchen has island, pantry and plenty of cabinet space.

Listed with Dyoung Investments & Property Mgmt LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,099,000 :: 11102 E VICTORIA Street, Chandler AZ, 85248

Property Photo

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3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,516 sq ft
Lot Size: 35,720 sq ft
Added: 09/05/20, Last Updated: 12/04/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6128285
Community: GILA BUTTE ESTATES
Tract: GILA BUTTE ESTATES
The price of this listing was last increased on 11/19/2020 by 4%
Status: Conditional


SELLER WILL CONSIDER LONG OR SHORT CLOSE ON THIS ONE OF A KIND PROPERTY! INCLUDES SPACE FOR 20 CARS INSIDE! INCREDIBLE COMPOUND! 2 HOUSES + 2 STEEL 60' RV/STORAGE STRUCTURES, NO HOA, PAVED ROADS, INTERIOR CORNER LOT, 3 DRIVEWAYS, BUILT 2011, MAIN HOUSE 3250 SQFT ( 2 BEDROOMS + DEN + BONUS ROOM ), GUEST HOUSE 1266 SQFT ( ONE BEDROOM ) , SOLID OAK FLOORS, SPRAY FOAM INSULATION, ARCHED STEEL ENTRY DOORS AT EACH HOUSE, 10' FLAT CEILINGS,8' DOORS, TOTALLY DESIGNED 100% HANDICAP ACCESSIBLE WHEELCHAIR! 15 POWDER COATED STEEL GATES! ONE OWNER, NON-SMOKER. 4 TRANE 20 SEER A/C UNITS, EXTERIOR DRYVIT (NO STUCCO), RV DUMP & ELECTRIC 30 AMP ...SELLER OWNS FREE & CLEAR WITH NEW HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION. (2019) APPRAISAL $1,300,000. GOOD BONES! FRUIT TREES, CORN, GRAPES GONE!OWNER/AGENT

Listed with Gary Call Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$365,000 :: 749 W MONTEREY Street, Chandler AZ, 85225

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,708 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 12/04/20, Last Updated: 12/04/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6167885
Community: SERENE HOMES
Tract: SERENE HOMES
Status: Active


No HOA and in a great location! This beautifully updated downtown Chandler home is a must see! Open floor-plan with spacious master bedroom. Quartz countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, white cabinets with stainless steel appliances and fixtures, new flooring throughout, and custom tile in the bathrooms! Newly planted grass in the front and back yard, plus RV gates!

Listed with DPR Realty LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$310,900 :: 913 W BARBADOS Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,262 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 11/20/20, Last Updated: 12/04/20
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6162970
Community: COSTAIN AT THE ISLANDS RE
Tract: COSTAIN AT THE ISLANDS RE
Status: Active


Take pride residing in this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in the Islands community with flawless interior features and an amazing location! Inside, you'll discover high ceilings, a functional layout, and chic tile flooring throughout! The primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom with double vanity sinks! The kitchen flaunts modern light fixtures, stainless steel appliances, and a gorgeous backsplash. This home is located in the Costain sub-association of the Islands and offers great amenities like a community pool, landscaping services, and access to other community spaces!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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