Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$1,000,000 :: 2650 E CATCLAW Street E, Gilbert AZ, 85296

Property Photo

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4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,632 sq ft
Lot Size: 17,424 sq ft
Added: 01/21/22, Last Updated: 01/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6345372
Community: GREENFIELD LAKES PARCEL 2 UNIT 2
Tract: GREENFIELD LAKES PARCEL 2 UNIT 2
Status: Active


You CAN have it all, your own resort on a golf course lot overlooking a lake with long views of nearby mountains. The lot is nearly a 1/2 acre providing open space and privacy. The owners professionally remodeled in 2018, leaving nothing undone, top to bottom, inside and out. This is a brand-new home with new vinyl windows, new roof and new AC's. You will find luxury upgraded surfaces throughout. Travertine and granite will be found in flooring and bath surrounds.The pool and patio received the same attention to detail, with rustic travertine decking around the pool, patio, custom BBQ and spa. Bonus, electric car plugin. Also see the powered shades and shutters.

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$455,000 :: 665 W SHAWNEE Drive, Chandler AZ, 85225

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,258 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 01/21/22, Last Updated: 01/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6345366
Community: MASTERCRAFT EAST UNIT SIX
Tract: MASTERCRAFT EAST UNIT SIX
Status: Active


BEAUTIFUL 3 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Home in Desirable Chandler School District. This Home has been lovingly maintained & updated and features an Open Great Room / Eat-in Kitchen Area complete with a Bay Window & French Doors. Granite Countertops and Stainless Appliances. Vaulted Ceilings. Back Yard feels like a tropical paradise w/ Extended Patio, Grape lined Trellis' & Fruit Trees. Don't Forget to Check out the ART STUDIO in the back yard w/ Air Conditioning...could be a ''she shed'' or ''man cave'' or ''kids playhouse''. RV Gate on the side and Storage Shed. Great location! Close to Freeways, Schools & Major Shopping. NO HOA. Washer/Dryer & Refrigerator all stay with the house. All Electric Home w/ Brand New A/C Unit. HURRY!

Listed with Gecko Realty, Inc.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$499,900 :: 2271 E CATCLAW Street, Gilbert AZ, 85296

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,308 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 01/21/22, Last Updated: 01/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6343553
Community: FINLEY FARMS SOUTH PARCEL 13
Tract: FINLEY FARMS SOUTH PARCEL 13
Status: Active


LOCATION ** LOCATION ** LOCATION **SPACIOUS 4 BEDROOM ** 2 BATH ** 2 CAR GARAGE AND A POOL!!! LARGE INTERIOR LOTSINGLE STORY ** VAULTED CEILINGS ** CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, SHOPING AND FREEWAY

Listed with Choice Realty Services, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$547,000 :: 3967 E Blue Sage Court, Gilbert AZ, 85297

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,513 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 01/21/22, Last Updated: 01/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6345330
Community: Colony at Power Ranch
Tract: Colony at Power Ranch
Status: Active


Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home w/ a beautiful private pool in the highly sought after community of Power Ranch! The home is situated on a premium lot without any house behind it. The interior features an upgraded kitchen complete with granite countertops & Stainless Steel appliances (fridge included), plantation shutters, vaulted ceilings, tile throughout the whole home, and more! The backyard has a large covered patio, private pool, low maintenance landscaping, and a beautiful view! Come see it today!

Listed with On Q Property Management


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$992,700 :: 2602 E VAUGHN Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85234

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,226 sq ft
Lot Size: 47,045 sq ft
Added: 01/21/22, Last Updated: 01/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6345305
Community: GILBERT COUNTRY ACRES
Tract: GILBERT COUNTRY ACRES
Status: Active


Gorgeous custom remodel on over an Acre horse property at the edge of Gilbert's Riparian Preserve. Custom touches throughout, include custom wrought iron, tiled flooring, dual paned windows, redesigned kitchen with crown molding on upgraded cabinets, beautiful quartz counters, brand new stainless steel appliances include a 36'' Verona Designer Induction Range & Convection Oven w/ hand-made hood vent. A custom statement wall with vaulted ceilings and an 6ft electric fireplace make for a cozy living room. Complete rebuilt bathrooms include new vanities, toilets, light fixtures, custom glass, soaking tub, fixtures and custom tiled showers. 12ft sliding glass doors in master bed lead to a 12x30 custom wood deck. A 3 car side entry garage, new Reem 4 ton AC, & 2 year old roof.

Listed with AZ-REP


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,199,950 :: 4083 S Debra Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85297

Property Photo

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3 beds, 5 baths
Home size: 3,612 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 01/21/22, Last Updated: 01/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6345269
Community: STRATFORD
Tract: STRATFORD
Status: Active


Model For Sale! Absolutly Beautiful Home Acrross From Central Park. 4 beds up All with Walk-in Closets, loft and 3 full baths, 1 bed down with it's own full bath plus powerder room. Highly upgraded with grand brick wall stairway, modern stairrail, shiplap and crwon modling in all thre right places, whitewashed beams in greatroom and master bedroom, gourmet kitchen with Wolf wall over and gas cooktop. Wook-look tile floors on entire first flor with custome tile in up baths. Freestanding Tub, Full Cabinets in Laundry Room. 15' Wall of Glass leds to Large Backyard with Plenty of Travertine, Artificial Turf, Pergola Sitting Area with attached Outdoor Kitchen. Separate gas Firepit Area Paved and Beautifully Decorated.Stop by today to View and Make it Yours! Furniture Does Not Convey

Listed with Realty Executives


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$546,000 :: 3263 E CARLA VISTA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85295

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,956 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 12/28/21, Last Updated: 01/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6335490
Community: LYONS GATE PHASE 8 REPLAT
Tract: LYONS GATE PHASE 8 REPLAT
Status: Active


This Gilbert two-story home offers granite countertops, and a two-car garage.

Listed with Opendoor Brokerage, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$599,000 :: 2055 E PALOMINO Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85296

Property Photo

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,249 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 01/15/22, Last Updated: 01/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6342512
Community: FINLEY FARMS SOUTH PARCEL 17
Tract: FINLEY FARMS SOUTH PARCEL 17
Status: Active


New AC, new carpet, beautiful new countertops, updated cabinetry, large stainless steel farmhouse sink, beautifully updated owner's suite. This 4 bedroom, 3 bath, with large oversized loft home has it all. Half of the loft could easily be converted into 5th bedroom and still leave room for a loft/second living area with balcony great for entertaining. Fireplace at living room. Diving pool, RV gate, raised garden bed, and ample room for play equipment or entertaining await in the backyard.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$665,000 :: 311 W FLAMINGO Drive, Chandler AZ, 85286

Property Photo

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,178 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,277 sq ft
Added: 01/21/22, Last Updated: 01/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6345255
Community: ARDEN PARK
Tract: ARDEN PARK
Status: Active


Welcome! Imagine living in this beautiful remodeled home located in Arden Park in the city of Chandler. Very livable floor plan centers around the Great Room -- with electric fireplace -- that looks outdoors through a new 12' sliding patio door. Enjoy a formal dining room, covered patio and refreshing kitchen with quartz counters, pantry & coffee station. The 2-car garage is accessed from the laundry room, and the 1-car garage from the foyer. Primary Bedroom offers tons of natural light, and the Primary Bath is replete with marble counters, water closet and curbless shower. Bath 2 and Bedrooms 2 & 3 are along the hallway, while Bedroom 4 can also be an office, den or game room. HVAC is 2020. All new paint, fixtures, baths, flooring, appliances. This is Arizona living!

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$885,000 :: 1017 E TONTO Drive, Chandler AZ, 85249

Property Photo

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5 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 4,139 sq ft
Lot Size: 15,246 sq ft
Added: 12/17/21, Last Updated: 01/21/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6333073
Community: ALAMOSA ESTATES
Tract: ALAMOSA ESTATES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 1/12/2022 by 1%
Status: Active


Welcome to your private oasis in Chandler ** This beautiful home has by far the most gorgeous backyard and features a swimming pool, spa, waterfall, firepit, firetable, and fireplace ** It is situated on a very large lot with RV parking and gate ** The kitchen features an 11 foot granite island, maple cabinets, stainless appliances, double ovens, and loads of cabinet and pantry space ** Primary bath has double sinks and a huge custom shower ** Complete built in office ** Basement offers bonus/game room, built in bar, two bedrooms and two storage rooms ** Extra features include two fireplaces, and a new roof ** Come and check it out ** Your clients will love it **

Listed with Penfield Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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