Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013
There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about time! Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert, which has rebounded to pre-2009 levels. Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.
What’s happening with distressed properties?
To gain a better understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time. The decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year. Pending foreclosures are the fuel for 
the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.
The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales. To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago. Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago. Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the summary.
City %Distressed Sept. 2011 %Distr.Sept. 2012 Change
Gilbert 61% 38% -23%
Chandler 61% 38% -23%
Mesa 66% 42% -24%
Queen Creek 65% 36% -29%
Scottsdale 44% 27% -17%
Surprise 73% 49% -24%
This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas. Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.
What happens when home values rise?
As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to underwater home owners . Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes. Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market. Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale.
In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand. A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply. We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down. A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.
One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives. As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving the market.
As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of homes. Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise. Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage. Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.
Your thoughts?
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Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011
Where’s the Phoenix market going in 2012?
Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix
$1,025,000 :: 2863 E CEDAR WAXWING Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85298
4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,402 sq ft
Lot Size: 52,272 sq ft
Added: 09/11/23, Last Updated: 10/04/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6603704
Community: Metes & Bounds
Tract: Metes & Bounds
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/4/2023 by 2%
Status: Active
BEAUTIFUL CUSTOM HOME w/ a BRAND NEW detached CASTIA just under 1,000 SQ FT with full kitchen and laundry, a new POOL with a large deck, all located on over an ACRE with no HOA & in a HIGH DEMAND CUSTOM HOME COMMUNITY of GILBERT! This 4 bedroom, 2 Bath Custom Home has so much to offer. *SEPARATE YARD w/Block wall & RV Gate Access *LARGE CARPORT/LIVESTOCK SHED ROW for Parking/Storing of Vehicles/Farm Equipment/Hay Storage etc. *Separately Fenced Pasture Area for Livestock & Chicken Coop *SEVERAL TREES that produce fruit and are on a drip system: 2 types of lemons, Tangelo, Blood orange, White/red grapefruit, 2 types of figs, and recently planted pear and apple tree.
Listed with HomeSmart Lifestyles
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$679,900 :: 1644 W PELICAN Court, Chandler AZ, 85286
3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,367 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 09/27/23, Last Updated: 10/04/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6609948
Community: STONEFIELD
Tract: STONEFIELD
Status: Active
Welcome to this exquisite 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home nestled on a quiet cul de sac located in Chandler. Upon arrival, you'll be greeted by an enchanting front yard adorned with charming pavers and a delightful mini gate that guides you to the front door.Prepare to be captivated by the spacious and airy floor plan as you step inside. The den offers a versatile space, perfect for either a home office or an extra living area. You'll instantly notice the inviting ambiance created by the gorgeous fireplace in the living room.The upgraded kitchen is a dream come true for any aspiring chef, featuring stunning granite countertops, modern appliances, and ample counter space. The walk-in pantry provides plentiful storage for all your culinary essentials.With three generously-sized
Listed with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Arizona Properties
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$569,000 :: 620 S WINTHROP Street, Gilbert AZ, 85296
5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,561 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,534 sq ft
Added: 09/01/23, Last Updated: 10/04/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6600322
Community: SPRING MEADOWS AMD LOT 1-135 TR A & B
Tract: SPRING MEADOWS AMD LOT 1-135 TR A & B
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/4/2023 by 4%
Status: Active
Priced Below Recent Appraisal. This 5 Bedroom, 3 Bath, Tri-Level Home with Over 2,500 Square Feet, is Situated Conveniently in Gilbert and will win your heart. This much-loved home utilizes 3 levels to provide space and privacy for each resident, yet includes a ''Rec Room'' for Fun Times, which is separate from the Living Room, Kitchen and Dining Area. There are ample places to gather, yet the house offers privacy as well. A/C Replaced in 2021. Solar Installed in 2021 is Seller Owned, No Lease for Buyer to Assume. If You are looking for a Spacious Home that has Convenient access to Freeways, Restaurants, Schools, Shopping and Downtown Gilbert, This May Be The One!
Listed with Goldbahr Real Estate
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$450,000 :: 1519 E Beacon Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234
3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,709 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 09/29/23, Last Updated: 10/04/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6611933
Community: La Jolla at Val vista Lakes
Tract: La Jolla at Val vista Lakes
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/4/2023 by 8%
Status: Active
Seller said let's get this sold **** Super nice home in Val Vista Lakes ** Enter living room with mantled fireplace ** Kitchen has double sinks, electric stove, microwave, reverse osmosis, refrigerator and separate eating area ** Super nice yard with huge step up deck plus a large grassy play area ** Primary bedroom with its own bath ** All this plus ceiling fans, blinds, inside laundry room and so much more ** Val Vista Lakes includes tennis courts/pickleball ** inside racquetball courts, workout room, weight room, swimming pool, jacuzzi, children's play area, and lagoon beach ** bring your kayak, paddle board or rent the clubhouse boat with its own driver ** There's so much here, you have to come and take a look ** You'll be happy you did
Listed with Penfield Properties
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$650,000 :: 1691 E GARY Drive, Chandler AZ, 85225
7 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,216 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 10/04/23, Last Updated: 10/04/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6613678
Community: PELHAM MANOR LOT 1-113 & TR A-E
Tract: PELHAM MANOR LOT 1-113 & TR A-E
Status: Active
Great Location! Chandler Schools! Full finished basement! Freshly painted exterior. Real Brazilian walnut and custom tile on the main floor. Multiple living spaces include family room, formal living room and dining room. This open family room with gas fireplace extends to the large kitchen with breakfast room. Granite countertops, kitchen island and large pantry. Upstairs you will find the owners suite with private bath and his & hers closets, 3 more bedrooms and second full bath. The fully finished basement has 3 large bedrooms, third full bath, and large entertaining room. This property has room for everyone! Great access to shopping, dining and entertaining.
Listed with Rio Salado Realty, LLC
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$765,000 :: 1760 E DERRINGER Way, Chandler AZ, 85286
4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,862 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 10/04/23, Last Updated: 10/04/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6613653
Community: CANYON OAKS ESTATES
Tract: CANYON OAKS ESTATES
Status: Active
Stunning 4-Bedroom Home with Pool in Prime Chandler Location. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by an open-concept great room that seamlessly flows into a beautifully remodeled gourmet kitchen. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring pristine white and warm wood tone cabinets, luxurious quartz countertops, and top-of-the-line GE black slate appliances. Dive into the pebble tech pool, relax by the poolside, or host unforgettable pool parties with family and friends. The generously sized patio is perfect for outdoor gatherings, barbecues, and enjoying the Arizona sun. The home's split floorplan offers privacy and convenience. The master suite is a tranquil retreat with ample space and an en-suite bathroom that features dual vanities, separate tub/shower and a huge primary closet.
Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$1,220,000 :: 3605 E GEMINI Place, Chandler AZ, 85249
5 beds, 4.5 baths
Home size: 4,200 sq ft
Lot Size: 11,762 sq ft
Added: 09/06/23, Last Updated: 10/04/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6598472
Community: JACARANDA PLACE REPLAT
Tract: JACARANDA PLACE REPLAT
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/4/2023 by 2%
Status: Active
Be the proud owner of this Fabulous Multigenerational residence nestled in the small, gated community of Jacaranda Place! Open Concept floorplan with huge kitchen. Tons of cabinet space and butler pantry walkthrough. Front entrance has private entry with foyer. This home offers attractive curb appeal w/stone accents & lush green landscape and a newer installed pool with built in BBQ and plenty of entertainment space. Primary Suite has a spa like bathroom with Super Walk in Shower and Huge Walk in Closet. Secondary Bedrooms are oversized and there is a Next Gen Suite that includes kitchenette, full bathroom and multi use area with interior and exterior access. The home also includes a 3 car garage. All on one level!
Listed with RE/MAX Excalibur
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$739,900 :: 3944 E BART Street, Gilbert AZ, 85295
4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,352 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 09/15/23, Last Updated: 10/04/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6603938
Community: RAY & RECKER PHASE 1
Tract: RAY & RECKER PHASE 1
The price of this listing was last reduced on 10/4/2023 by 1%
Status: Active
Gorgeous home in highly desirable community of Recker Pointe in Gilbert featuring 4 Bedrooms/3.5 Bathrooms/Office/Loft/3-Car-Garage! This clean and well-kept move-in ready home will NOT disappoint! The neighborhood has a high-end Modern feel with Community Pool. Right when you walk in the high end Iron Door you will notice high ceilings & beautiful finishes. Downstairs has an ensuite, additional powder room, open concept Great Room with huge kitchen island great for hosting parties, large sliders & windows for natural lighting. The backyard faces North and is low maintenance with artificial grass, nice patio, & Jacuzzi. Upstairs has a spacious Laundry Room with cabinetry and sink, a nice loft, 2 large guest bedrooms, and a Beautiful Master Suite with gorgeous tub/shower+Walk-in closet!
Listed with West USA Realty
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$885,000 :: 3399 S IVY Way, Chandler AZ, 85248
4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,514 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,584 sq ft
Added: 09/15/23, Last Updated: 10/04/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6603047
Community: WATERS AT OCOTILLO
Tract: WATERS AT OCOTILLO
The price of this listing was last reduced on 9/25/2023 by 2%
Status: Active
Welcome to the Prestigious Community of Waters At Ocotillo! $10,000 SELLER CREDIT W/ FULL PRICE OFFER FOR RATE BUY DOWN OR CLOSING COSTS. Not only is this home on a CORNER LOT, it also sits right next to a Greenbelt. NO NEIGHBORS on either side! The back yard is an entertainers paradise. Beautifully manicured yard, tons of pavers, Fire Pit & PUTTING GREEN. Elegance is abundant within this home. Chef's kitchen with Gas Cook-top, Wall oven, Kitchen Island, lots of cabinet space & WALK-IN PANTRY. Formal Dining Room, Den, open & bright Family room! LOFT! Bedroom 2 has its own bathroom & bedroom 3 is a Jack & Jill concept to guest bathroom. Spacious primary bedroom boast a Gorgeous bathroom with double sinks, garden tub & standing shower. Lots of room in Primary walk-in closet too!
Listed with Keller Williams Realty Sonoran Living
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
$520,000 :: 3310 E WOODSIDE Way, Gilbert AZ, 85297
4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,863 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 10/04/23, Last Updated: 10/04/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6613286
Community: SAN TAN RANCH PARCEL 5
Tract: SAN TAN RANCH PARCEL 5
Status: Active
Prime Gilbert Location with 202 Fwy access, dining, and shopping within minutes. Easy access to Mesa Gateway airport, ASU East, San Tan Mall & Marketplace. This single-story 4 bedroom, 2 bath home features a great floor plan with lots of flexibility. Vaulted ceilings make the home feel more spacious. Large primary suite. Oversized secondary bathroom. Move right in: new neutral carpet, paint, and ceiling fans throughout. RV gate and 3-car driveway parking, Large yard, with covered patio, raised garden beds, fruit trees. Elementary school, park, and bike trails down the street. Convenient neighborhood medical complex around the corner.
Listed with Barrett Real Estate
Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!
Gordon,
Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!
I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.
Thanks,
Jonathan
You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:
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