Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$739,000 :: 1311 S NIELSON Street, Gilbert AZ, 85296

Property Photo

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,324 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,455 sq ft
Added: 07/01/22, Last Updated: 07/03/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6427783
Community: LINDSAY RANCH UNIT 2
Tract: LINDSAY RANCH UNIT 2
Status: Active


UNCOMPROMISING EXCELLENCE describes this charming 5 bedroom/3 full bath home located in Gilbert's Lindsay Ranch. Enjoy the re-imagined dream backyard on one of the largest private lots in the community. This popular open floorplan shows like a model and offers a tastefully appointed kitchen with white cabinetry, NEW stainless appliances, corian ''marble-like'' countertops and an oversized breakfast bar. SPECIAL EXTRAS INCLUDE: 2 New A/C units (2021) new water heater (2022) newer exterior paint (2019) newer wood-look laminate flooring downstairs with 5'' baseboards, one bedroom and one full bath downstairs, spacious master bedroom w/dual walk-in closets, large secondary bedrooms (one with an oversized walk-in closet) new quartz countertops in every bathroom along with all new faucets

Listed with United Brokers Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$390,000 :: 6761 S OAKMONT Drive, Chandler AZ, 85249

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,469 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 07/03/22, Last Updated: 07/03/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6428260
Community: SUNBIRD
Tract: SUNBIRD
Status: Active


CUSTOM CARMEL MODEL with an addition that includes a family room and a sitting room in the master bedroom; lots of upgrades including granite countertops, tile floors, fans, no popcorn ceilings, paver entry and a Murphy bed in the guest bedroom. As a winter retreat or full-time residence, this bright & airy, meticulously maintained home shows like a model and is move-in ready. Great location with no neighbors in the back in this wonderful, friendly adult community where you can enjoy all of the amenities including golf, tennis, swimming, pickle-ball, billiards, restaurant, lounge, state-of-the-art fitness center and so much more. Must see to appreciate why this exquisite home would be the best way to enjoy the SunBird Golf Resort lifestyle. Floor plan in the Documents Tab.

Listed with Cactus Mountain Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,190,000 :: 433 E MEAD Drive, Chandler AZ, 85249

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,055 sq ft
Lot Size: 13,068 sq ft
Added: 07/02/22, Last Updated: 07/03/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6428114
Community: PINELAKE ESTATES
Tract: PINELAKE ESTATES
Status: Active


RARE Sought after floorpan, OUTSTANDING RENOVATION! 4055 sq ft. SINGLE LEVEL, 5 Bedrm/ 3.5 Bth PLUS OFFICE! Prestigeous Pinelake Estates! Private Gated COURTYARD ENTRY to Gorgeous 8ft Iron & Glass Entry Door! Beautiful interior= Italian ceramic wood-look floors, soothing palette, stone fireplace, formal living, dining room plus den! Stunning NEW Chef's Kitchen features Gorgeous Custom Cabinetry, TOP Commercial Grade appliances, large center island/ breakfast bar quartz counters, wine cooler, sliding doors to courtyard access, huge pantry. Exceptional Master en suite Gorgeous Vessel Tub, Huge tile Shower & Large walk-in cusom closet .Large laundry rm w/ sink & storage cabinets. RESORT backyard sparkling pool, spa, built-in BBQ, covered patio, lush landscape & fire pit! SEE UPGRADE LIST!!

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$569,000 :: 940 S ABALONE Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,063 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 05/27/22, Last Updated: 07/03/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6404256
Community: THE ISLANDS at Harbor Cove
Tract: THE ISLANDS at Harbor Cove
The price of this listing was last reduced on 6/28/2022 by 2%
Status: Active


Move in PERFECT!! REMODELED in THE ISLANDS at Harbor Cove! Gilbert's sought after Master Planned Lake Community!! 3 Bedroom/ 2.5 Bath!! NEW CARPET, NEW PAINT, WHOLE NEW LOOK!! Ready for move in!! Located on quite cul de sac street! Soaring ceiling entry Formal living room, Dinning room/ Open Concept Family room/ Kitchen. Kitchen has large Breakfast bar, SS appliances, Gas stove range, Neutral pallet, LIGHT & BRIGHT! The Natural lighting in this home is AMAZING!! Large Master upstairs w/ spacious en suite, double sink vanity, separate tub & shower, LARGE CLOSET! Private Patio & LOW maintenance backyard! The Islands Community Pool (only 1 block away), also have lake access on any of the 3 community lakes! Walking trails, green belts and parks are everywhere! Phenomenal Community LUCKY YOU!!

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$485,000 :: 4132 E ORCHID Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85296

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,713 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,050 sq ft
Added: 07/03/22, Last Updated: 07/03/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6426898
Community: GARDENS PARCEL 4
Tract: GARDENS PARCEL 4
Status: Active


Beautifully upgraded home in the Gardens community. Home has newer upgrades (2020) including carpet, tile flooring in all of the high traffic areas, upgraded baseboards, granite kitchen counters, stainless appliances to match with light accented gray walls. Home has 4 full bedrooms all with ceiling fans, 3 bathrooms and loft for a media room or den. Upgrades include synthetic backyard lawn, with pavers for the patio area. The Gardens Community includes swimming pools, basketball courts, parks with playgrounds. Home is close to the 202 freeway, regional airport, shopping, restaurants and much more.

Listed with World Class Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$515,000 :: 6092 S BRIDAL VAIL Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,749 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 06/26/22, Last Updated: 07/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6422552
Community: MARBELLA VINEYARDS
Tract: MARBELLA VINEYARDS
Status: Active


Well loved and maintained N/S facing corner lot features 3 bed 2 bath + enclosed den and is just waiting for you to put your special touch on it. Master bathroom has separate tub and shower, 4ft garage extension w/ exterior door, soft water, vaulted ceilings, surround sound, split floor plan. Private pool and nice sized grassy side yard. Single gate on one side, double gate on the other w/ another gate to the backyard, perfect for a dog run. View lot backs to greenbelt w/ walking path. New A/C unit AND new pool pump installed in 2021

Listed with HomeSmart Lifestyles


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$925,000 :: 3075 E CULLUMBER Street, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,835 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 06/29/22, Last Updated: 07/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6425763
Community: HIGLEY GROVES WEST
Tract: HIGLEY GROVES WEST
Status: Active


STUNNING!! Two story home in the highly sought after Higley Groves at Morrison Ranch! Impeccably maintained. Pool! Master on the main. You walk into spacious great room with ample natural light. Several updates. 5 bed and 3.5 bath. Walk in pantry. Guest quarters. Awesome backyard for kids and entertaining. Located on a quiet street with lined mature trees. Family friendly neighborhood with large parks and sidewalks! Home near 202 & 60 freeways, restaurants, shopping and more! Top rated Gilbert Schools.

Listed with Hub Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,197,000 :: 2535 E THORNTON Court, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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3 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,132 sq ft
Lot Size: 12,197 sq ft
Added: 07/02/22, Last Updated: 07/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6428209
Community: GREENFIELD RANCH
Tract: GREENFIELD RANCH
Status: Active


WOW! This is a TURN KEY home ready for immediate move in and is in immaculate condition. This 3 bedroom PLUS den is LOADED with UPGRADES which include a 20' CORNERLESS SLIDING door that opens up to the outside giving you a massive indoor/outdoor living space. GOURMET KITCHEN with QUARTZ ISLAND, Monogram built in refrigerator, Gas Cooktop, WALL OVEN, Maple Cabinets and a huge walk in Pantry. SMART HOME package includes SURROUND SOUND and speakers throughout the house including the patio, pool area and garage which accommodates 4 CARS and has built in cabinets AND an RV GATE! Outside is beautiful POOL WITH WATER FEATURE and BUILT IN FIREPIT - PAVER walk and FAUX GRASS for low maintenance. Gas line for BBQ and FIREPIT. All of this on over a 1/4 acre lot in a BEAUTIFUL GATED COMMUNITY!

Listed with Delex Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$499,000 :: 1241 N PEBBLE BEACH Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,466 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 06/02/22, Last Updated: 07/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6409338
Community: LA JOLLA VILLAGE LOT 1-86 TR A-E & G
Tract: LA JOLLA VILLAGE LOT 1-86 TR A-E & G
The price of this listing was last reduced on 6/25/2022 by 7%
Status: Active


Outstanding Single Family Home in The Highly Desired La Jolla Village Subdivision at Val Vista Lakes in Gilbert. Upgraded Throughout the home inside and out. Home opens up to a Great room. Newer kitchen, Granite, flooring, Tile BacksplashFixtures, Wood Shutters, paint... 3 bedroom/ 2 bath - single story floor plan. Master suite has a huge walk-in closet, separate tub and bath. Newer utility room in garage. Low maintenance front and back landscaping with Artificial Turf. Great location to Dana Park Village or to Val Vista Lakes Community Center/ Pool/ Tennis Courts, Activities and more. Come see it soon these homes go quickly .

Listed with Redfin Corporation


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$1,189,000 :: 4770 E BUCKBOARD Road, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,755 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 07/02/22, Last Updated: 07/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6428198
Community: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 3
Tract: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 3
Status: Active


Stunning Toll Brothers home in the much coveted Power Ranch Community! This home boasts Custom Wainscoting throughout as well as Beautiful Herringbone tile in the entryway and downstairs. Newly renovated Chefs kitchen offers a large built in office/command center with floor to ceiling cabinetry, grand-sized island, Quartz Countertops, Farm sink, Professional Frigidaire appliances, Custom oversized built in refrigerator and freezer, induction stovetop, double ovens, Custom stove range-hood paneling, as well as over/under cabinet lighting. Large Primary Bedroom offers a sitting area, walk-in closet and a Newly renovated Bathroom with stunning Luxury vinyl floors, shower, and built-in vanity! 3-car garage offers built-in cabinetry! This home has right out of a magazine vibes and will go FAST!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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