Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$384,900 :: 1698 E TREMAINE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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3 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 1,248 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 05/17/21, Last Updated: 05/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6237402
Community: SONOMA RANCH
Tract: SONOMA RANCH
Status: Active


OPEN HOUSE 5-22-21 11 AM to 3 PM. AFFORDABLE Move in Ready 3/2 WITH POOL-Rare Find in Popular Sonoma Ranch with A Rated Schools, minutes to the 60, this house has it all with Light Plank Tile, Granite Counters throughout, even in the Hallway, now who does that? Updated Kitchen, Vaulted Ceilings Living Room and Kitchen/Dining and near popular FreeStone Park, Newer Energy Efficient AC 16 Sear AND New Gas Furnace 2018 with transferrable Warranty. Deep Sparkling Pool with a Energy Efficient Variable Speed Pool Pump (2018) AND a covered Patio make this home a Fantastic Family Fun and Entertainers Delight. Wall Mounted Patio TV included. Buyer can close by June 11th making for quick possession. Washer Dryer Range, Patio TV and Refrigerator convey without warranty. Vivint DB/cam included

Listed with 4 Corners Realty Inc.


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$339,000 :: 6963 S SANTA RITA Way, Chandler AZ, 85249

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,067 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 05/11/21, Last Updated: 05/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6234471
Community: SPRINGFIELD LAKES BLOCK 6
Tract: SPRINGFIELD LAKES BLOCK 6
The price of this listing was last reduced on 5/17/2021 by 5%
Status: Active


Lovely home in a highly sought-after 55+ community. Eat-in kitchen opens up to family room. Beautiful outdoor patio with low maintenance landscaping. The Solera lifestyle is absolutely fantastic. Community boasts tennis, golf, workout facilities, 2 heated pools, pickleball - and of course, an exceptional community center.

Listed with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Arizona Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$849,000 :: 2533 E TONTO Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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5 beds, 4 baths
Home size: 3,770 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 05/17/21, Last Updated: 05/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6235020
Community: FREEMAN FARMS PHASE 3 PARCEL 4
Tract: FREEMAN FARMS PHASE 3 PARCEL 4
Status: Active


Gorgeous GILBERT home with POOL / SPA! 5 BD / 4 BA with DEN and FULL BATH on main level & loft upstairs. SPACIOUS FLOORPLAN allows for multiple home offices. Gourmet kitchen with granite counters, OVERSIZED WALK-IN PANTRY, stainless steel appliances, and large center island. Relax in the master retreat featuring A LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET. Enjoy spending time in the beautiful backyard complete with self-cleaning pool/spa, extended covered patio, and N/S exposure. New exterior paint 2020. New water heater, softener and house filtration system and pool built in 2019. Community features access to parks and walking paths. Convenient to Gilbert Regional Park, shopping, dining, and the Loop 202 Freeway. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!

Listed with Vylla Home


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$585,000 :: 1181 S SANDSTONE Court, Gilbert AZ, 85296

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,698 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 05/17/21, Last Updated: 05/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6234220
Community: WESTERN SKIES ESTATES
Tract: WESTERN SKIES ESTATES
Status: Active


Amazing two story home that backs to Western Skies Golf Course in Gilbert. When you walk in you'll notice the vaulted ceilings and tons of natural light. This 4 bedroom home has been updated with quartz countertops and new backsplash in the kitchen. The master is on the main floor with three bedrooms and a loft upstairs. You can watch the sunrise off your balcony while you enjoy your morning coffee. The backyard has a private pool with water feature, in ground trampoline, and newly redone turf in the back with enough space to play corn hole!

Listed with American Allstar Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$483,000 :: 4605 E NIGHTINGALE Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,630 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 05/17/21, Last Updated: 05/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6237378
Community: TRILOGY UNIT 4
Tract: TRILOGY UNIT 4
Status: Active


This Gilbert one-story home offers a patio, and a three-car garage.

Listed with Opendoor Brokerage, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$555,000 :: 1227 S Longmore Court, Chandler AZ, 85248

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,478 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 05/11/21, Last Updated: 05/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6234339
Community: SILVERTON RANCH
Tract: SILVERTON RANCH
The price of this listing was last increased on 5/17/2021 by 5%
Status: Active


Fantastic opportunity in the popular Silverton Ranch community. Beautiful curb appeal on a prime cul-de-sac lot with almost 10,000 SF. This home has so much potential with a spacious single-level layout, 4 bedrooms (3 + den) & large 3 car garage. The large and open kitchen features: gas cooking, double oven, kitchen island, granite counters & walk-in pantry. The backyard is perfect for entertaining with a stunning pool & spa with a large stone waterfall, a large covered patio & an outdoor kitchen/ BBQ area. This ideal Chandler location offers easy access to freeways (101/202), downtown Chandler, Chandler Mall, & Hospitals.

Listed with RE/MAX Excalibur


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$390,000 :: 924 E MANOR Drive, Chandler AZ, 85225

Property Photo

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3 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 1,783 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 05/17/21, Last Updated: 05/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6232480
Community: STONEGATE CROSSING UNIT 3
Tract: STONEGATE CROSSING UNIT 3
Status: Active


This home is going to absolutely blow your mind! Centrally located in Uptown Chandler, close to shopping, restaurants, freeways, tech employment, Downtown Chandler Historic District. Completely renovated 2 Master bedrooms, 1 downstairs bedroom & 3 full bath home! 2018 HVAC, 2019 water heater, newer flooring, cabinets, appliances (frig included), light fixtures, interior and exterior paint, doors and more. Vaulted ceilings, open stairwell, not one but TWO wine frigs, large laundry room, washer & dryer included, security system owned, direct garage access. Come see this one for yourself, open houses this weekend 11am-3pm both days. **Sold using ONLINE BIDDING PLATFORM so everyone can see the bids, great for Buyers that are tired of not knowing what to offer.**

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$799,900 :: 4529 S RANGER Trail, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,755 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 05/17/21, Last Updated: 05/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6237351
Community: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 3
Tract: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 3
Status: Active


This beautiful Oaks subdivision home by Toll Brothers is located in the Power Ranch neighborhood. The interior has been completely remodeled over the past two years, and is simply gorgeous! No expense was spared! The expansive 4755 square foot home includes 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a gourmet kitchen with stainless steel appliances, quartz counter tops, and a walk-in pantry. In a comfortable and inviting open floor plan, the formal living room features a gas fireplace, formal dining room accompanied by a butler station, and the family room with vaulted ceilings has another gas fireplace. All bedrooms are upstairs, with a centralized loft outside the secondary bedrooms. There is a very spacious master suite with sitting room and a a walk-in closet.

Listed with Coldwell Banker Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$400,000 :: 5288 S CITRUS Lane, Gilbert AZ, 85298

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,407 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 05/14/21, Last Updated: 05/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6235197
Community: TRILOGY UNIT 4
Tract: TRILOGY UNIT 4
Status: Active


Come check out this RARE 3 bed 2 bath home in the award winning active adult community of Power Ranch. The home has the perfect flow from Kitchen to great room for entertaining year around with a backyard perfect for the cool winter evenings. The master bedroom is large, as well as the master bath and walk in closet are the perfect size. Each guest room is nice sized perfect for guests or a home office and a guest. The community itself is adorned with amenities including: Golf, Swimming Pools, Tennis Courts, Club House, and so much more. Feel at ease in this gated community to use your home seasonally or year round. Welcome Home!

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$575,000 :: 3777 E ESPLANADE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,070 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,277 sq ft
Added: 04/29/21, Last Updated: 05/17/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6227974
Community: CORONADO RANCH PARCEL 5
Tract: CORONADO RANCH PARCEL 5
Status: Active


Fantastic 4 bed, 2.5 bath residence now on the market! Great curb appeal with easy-care front landscaping and 3 car garage! Open interior floor plan features large dining and living areas, the den is ideal for an office, cozy stone fireplace, and designer paint throughout. Chef's kitchen with crown molding, ample counter space, walk-in pantry, & an island complete with a breakfast bar. Bay window in breakfast nook, ceiling fans, window blinds, & coffered dining room ceiling w/engineered wood floors. Sweeping stairway to 2nd level w/plush carpet on the 2nd level. Grand master bedroom boasts a spacious walk-in closet and a full bath with dual sinks, not to mention a separate tub and shower. Stunning backyard includes a covered patio, grassy area, and fire pit.

Listed with Venture REI, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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