Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$430,000 :: 1758 E CARLA VISTA Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85295

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,124 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 12/03/22, Last Updated: 12/03/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6487678
Community: GILBERT RANCH UNIT 2
Tract: GILBERT RANCH UNIT 2
Status: Active


Move-in ready! Super cute and updated. Popular Gilbert Ranch. Great location. Soft gray and white pallet, wood look plank tile, carpet in the bedrooms, quartz countertops, higher profile baseboards, stainless refrigerator, dishwasher, range, and microwave. 2 1/2 inch faux wood blinds. Pool and spa in an easy to care for backyard. 3 bedroom or 2 bedroom plusden/office, 2 bath is the perfect starter home or ideal for downsizing. Close to wonderful restaurants, shopping, and award winning schools.

Listed with Coldwell Banker Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$460,000 :: 932 E SAVANNAH Drive, Chandler AZ, 85225

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,624 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 12/03/22, Last Updated: 12/03/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6492805
Community: MADELINE COURT
Tract: MADELINE COURT
Status: Active


This great home in a gated community backs up to Greenbelt & adjacent to Park w/play area & community mailbox. One of the best locations in Madeline Court! Walk to CVS & Restaurants. Front pillars with stone elevation. Formal Living Room, Formal Dining Room (presently used as an office). Travertine Tile in all the right places with 2 Custom Medallions, Maple Cabinets, Stone Backsplash, Granite Kitchen Sink & Countertops, Sunshades, Newer Stainless Steel Appliances, newer fans in multiple rooms. Front yard maintained by HOA. Lovely backyard landscaping w/extended patio. New A/C October 2020! New 50 gallon Water Heater March 2022. Primary Bath Shower remodeled 2021. 1 Yr. Home Warranty included. Great location - Bring your Buyers!

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$509,000 :: 933 W Tremaine Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,751 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 07/16/22, Last Updated: 12/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6435382
Community: SONESTA ESTATES UNIT 1
Tract: SONESTA ESTATES UNIT 1
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/2/2022 by 4%
Status: Active


A beautifully remodeled single story home with 4 bedrooms 2 bath. Brand new white cabinets, polished granite countertops and tastefully tile lined kitchen walls. Backyard is abundant in space for all types of activities. Beautifully smooth tiled floors and abundant natural lighting filters from the large windows. An overall clean and minimalist interior appearance.

Listed with RE/MAX Fine Properties


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$459,900 :: 3973 E WYATT Court, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,850 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 11/10/22, Last Updated: 12/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6487308
Community: SAN TAN RANCH PARCEL 15
Tract: SAN TAN RANCH PARCEL 15
Status: Active


What a great Move-in Ready Family home in Gilbert. No carpet in the entire home, Brand new wood like plank tile T/O. Brand new stainless Steel kitchen Appliances. Fridge, washer & dryer stay, New interior and exterior paint. Split floorplan Pet and kid friendly grass in the backyard. San Tan Ranch community offers many community events such as WInter Wonderland in Dec, be a part of this. Close to schools, shopping, parks and places to eat, Walk to Higley High or San Tan Elementary, shopping at San Tan Mall. Or enjoy the many parks in the community such as Menlo or Grizzy, 2 lots over is a Community Volleyball park.

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$800,000 :: 3904 E LEAH Court, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,305 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,584 sq ft
Added: 12/02/22, Last Updated: 12/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6495129
Community: HIGHLAND GROVES
Tract: HIGHLAND GROVES
Status: Active


Looking for a GORGEOUS kitchen and entertainers backyard? This 3300 square foot, home in a prime Gilbert location boasts loaded upgrades that are hard to come by. The foliage lined paver walk way leading to the front door gives the home a cozy inviting feel, and draws you through the front door where a grand staircase entry way will greet you. Off to the right you'll find an intimate living room, and to the left a spacious great room, both equipped with new plantation shutters and intricate woodwork. The real show stopper is the completely remodeled kitchen with quartz counters, a gas range, an industrial fridge, extended island with storage, and MASSIVE PANTRY! The new tile throughout contributes to the light and bright feel of the home. The upstairs is home to 4 of the 5 bedrooms

Listed with O48 Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$399,000 :: 722 N Cedar Street, Gilbert AZ, 85233

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,503 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 09/09/22, Last Updated: 12/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6461926
Community: La Vida Serena Estates
Tract: La Vida Serena Estates
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/2/2022 by 3%
Status: Active


NEW PRICE REDUCTION. Priced below Recently Appraised Value. Seller has made repairs from previous inspection reports. It's ready for you to move in. New Roof, New Central AC, New Wall Unit ACs in PERMITTED Addition, New Electric Panel, New Windows in main rooms, New Bathroom Vanities, New Cordless cellular blinds. New Refrigerator and Dishwasher, and freshly painted exterior. All appliances and an INSIDE Washer Dryer are included. Zero carpet in Home. Just ONE MILE from Downtown Gilbert. Driveway Parking for 4 plus an RV gate for your toys. Did I mention no HOA? The back bonus room is huge and has endless possibilities- game room, family room, home theater, workshop. The 4th bedroom in rear of home could also be a gym, office or craft room.

Listed with United Brokers Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$490,000 :: 4165 E CLAXTON Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85297

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,163 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 10/20/22, Last Updated: 12/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6479746
Community: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 7 PHASE 4
Tract: POWER RANCH NEIGHBORHOOD 7 PHASE 4
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/2/2022 by 1%
Status: Active


Spacious 4 bed, 2.5 Bath in super desirable Power Ranch! Large kitchen features pantry, island, desk area and eat in dining.Refrigerator, washer and dryer included. There is also formal dining area and living room with warm wood laminate flooring.Master bedroom is on main floor with large walk-in closet and double sinks. 3 bedrooms and separate living area are upstairs. Recently upgraded HVAC with two zones, upgraded flooring throughout.Wonderfully landscaped backyard has synthetic turf and pavers. Front yard has low maintenance desert landscaping. Largestorage space under stairs. Don't let this beautiful home slip away. Call to schedule a showing today

Listed with Opendoor Brokerage, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$599,900 :: 1331 S WAYNE Drive, Chandler AZ, 85286

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,989 sq ft
Lot Size: 8,712 sq ft
Added: 09/28/22, Last Updated: 12/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6470049
Community: ARIZONA ESTATES
Tract: ARIZONA ESTATES
The price of this listing was last reduced on 12/2/2022 by 2%
Status: Active


If Buyer uses the Seller's Preferred Lender for financing, Seller may contribute up to 2.5% of the Purchase price to buy down rate by 2% for the first year, 1% for the 2nd year. Don't miss this highly sought after area of Arizona Estates in Chandler! Home is beautiful inside and out. Kitchen features Stainless Steel Appliances and granite Counter Tops. Home has NEW flooring throughout. Home features NEW exterior and interior paint! Great location to the freeway access and extremely close to all that Chandler has to offer including shopping, malls, restaurants and parks! Hurry and schedule your showing today, this one won't last long!

Listed with Offerpad


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$955,400 :: 3114 S COTTONWOOD Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,871 sq ft
Lot Size: 14,375 sq ft
Added: 11/14/22, Last Updated: 12/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6489433
Community: ALLEN RANCH PARCELS 1 2 3 & 4
Tract: ALLEN RANCH PARCELS 1 2 3 & 4
Status: Active


Entertainers dream house. Lot is14,000 +sqft. of exquisite resort grounds. Must see document section to review all upgrades owners have made. WAY TOO MANY TO MENTION! Beautiful wood window sills! Tilt outs at kitchen sink! Gourmet pantry. Charming interior w/10' ceilings, 8' doors, soothing palette, and a spacious living area for receiving guests. Wonderful computer/office nook. Main bedroom has double entry. Watch TV while bathing or look out at your orchard.. Den/4th bedroom has private courtyard French door entry. Enjoy gourmet meals in the fabulous kitchen while listening to your surround sound. Or sit outside at your Gourmet Island Entertainment Center watching the fire ice! Electric car charger in single garage. Only have a neighbor on one side! This value will not disappoint!

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$409,000 :: 206 N PALM Street, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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2 beds, 1 bath
Home size: 776 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,792 sq ft
Added: 12/02/22, Last Updated: 12/02/22
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6495085
Community: GILBERT
Tract: GILBERT
Status: Active


Gorgeous remodeled bungalow in Gilbert's Heritage District! Walking distance to the best that Downtown Gilbert has to offer with award winning dining & entertainment. Stunning and fully renovated in 2021, no expense was spared with this gem while keeping the historic character of this home intact. No HOA and currently operating as a successful short-term rental on AirBnB. Keep it as a rental, or move-in and experience truly unique Gilbert living.

Listed with Real Broker AZ, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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