Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$665,000 :: 6211 S ROCHESTER Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85298

4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,553 sq ft
Lot Size: 10,019 sq ft
Added: 02/25/21, Last Updated: 02/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6197416
Community: SHAMROCK ESTATES PHASE 2A
Tract: SHAMROCK ESTATES PHASE 2A
Status: Active


Shamrock Estates Retreat! Courtyard entry leads to formal foyer, dining rm, spacious family rm, & 4 bedrooms (Bed #2 with ensuite bath),flex rm, 3.5 baths & 3 car garage. Gourmet kitchen w/beautiful granite counters, gas cooktop, double GE Ovens, HUGE walk-in pantry, butler's pantry & walnut stained, raised panel cabinets. Fine touches include crown moulding, upgraded wood & iron accented stairway railing leads to 2 large loft areas & extra-large secondary bedrooms. Master bedroom features a separate retreat room. Backyard w/relaxing pool & large grassy play area. The home has new paint inside and out in January 2021! Walk/bike path to CTA Freedom Campus just 2 blocks away! This is a wonderful home you won't want to miss

Listed with Infinity & Associates Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$615,000 :: 4335 E PALO VERDE Street, Gilbert AZ, 85296

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 3,072 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 02/25/21, Last Updated: 02/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6195812
Community: ELLIOT GROVES AT MORRISON RANCH PHASE 2
Tract: ELLIOT GROVES AT MORRISON RANCH PHASE 2
Status: Active


This exquisite Morrison Ranch home will complete your new home wish list! Walk into your large open atrium with soaring ceilings & be swept out through the over-sized sliding glass doors...feel the cool spring air & let the outdoors in. Your toes in the water of your full-length heated pool hearing the sound of falling water, overlooking your backyard oasis. The extended travertine patio leads you to the built in BBQ island, perfect for entertaining. Inside your gourmet kitchen awaits with upgraded white cabinetry, appliances, & large center island. Working from home? The unique layout is perfect with 2 home office spaces & a quant upstairs loft. At the end of the day escape to your spacious owner's suite. The tree lined streets of Morrison Ranch beckon and your dream home awaits!

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$925,000 :: 15323 E VIA DEL RANCHO --, Gilbert AZ, 85298

5 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 3,335 sq ft
Lot Size: 46,610 sq ft
Added: 02/25/21, Last Updated: 02/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6198670
Community: none
Tract: none
Status: Active


Best location in Gilbert is waiting just for you! This wonderful property is a dream come true offering circular driveway, stone accents, fire-pits, 4 car garage and a huge side yard storage area with an RV gate! As you enter this magnificent home you'll find a double-door den, plantation shutters, and luxurious light fixtures. Become the best home chef in this gourmet kitchen with elegant pendant lighting, centered island, high-end appliances, huge walk-in pantry, and more. The master suite includes a private exit and a spectacular double-door bathroom with a garden tub, step-in shower, dual sinks, and walk-in closet. Entertain your guests in this impressive resort-like backyard providing a pool w/slide, Ramada w/built-in BBQ, and sports court. Hurry! Book a showing today before it's gone

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$339,900 :: 2441 E Vermont Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85295

3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,692 sq ft
Lot Size: 2,614 sq ft
Added: 02/25/21, Last Updated: 02/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6198557
Community: The Cove at Vincenz
Tract: The Cove at Vincenz
Status: Active


Beautifully maintained community in The COVE @Vincenz. 3 bedroom, 2/1/2 bath Featuring a Community Pool, Spa, Multiple Playground and park areas. Minutes from all of the amazing amenities of SAN TAN VILLAGE! Lg Master suite with walk in closet.-2 car garage- Great sunset views from a west facing patio. No homes behind you. Original owner- super clean

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$544,900 :: 2441 W BINNER Drive, Chandler AZ, 85224

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 3,321 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,970 sq ft
Added: 02/25/21, Last Updated: 02/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6196644
Community: CASTILLE
Tract: CASTILLE
Status: Active


Gorgeous move in ready home in the desirable Castille Subdivision in Chandler. Located near the 101 & 202, Chandler Mall & restaurants. With over 3300 sq ft you will love this 2 story home with 4 beds, 3 ba, spacious loft area upstairs ideal for a kids playroom, home office or gym space & 3 car garage. The amazing outdoor entertaining area is complete with covered patio, built in BBQ, sprawling grassy area and a sparkling pool! Great curb appeal with its NEW exterior paint. The flowing floor plan is enhanced w/ its recently updated neutral paint palate and plantation shutters throughout. Formal living area, dining room, spacious open Family Room w/ hardwood floors in all of the right places. Stylish kitchen features granite countertops, recently updated cabinetry, ss appliances, gas

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$350,000 :: 2336 E PINTO Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85296

3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,322 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,228 sq ft
Added: 02/25/21, Last Updated: 02/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6197914
Community: FINLEY FARMS SOUTH PARCEL 18
Tract: FINLEY FARMS SOUTH PARCEL 18
Status: Active


This gorgeous, turn-key home will not last long! This home has all the upgrades you could ever want! Beautiful wood plank tile throughout, with white shaker cabinets & granite counters in kitchen and bathrooms! Wood blinds, fresh nuetral paint, and plush carpets in all the bedroms! The primary bedroom has spacious walk in closet, and an en-suite which includes a walk in shower. Spacious backyard with coverd patio! Quiet cul de sac lot! Close to freeways, shopping, restaurants and more! Top rated Gilbert schools!

Listed with RE/MAX Solutions


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$665,000 :: 2587 S Santa Rita Way, Chandler AZ, 85286

4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 2,628 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,841 sq ft
Added: 02/25/21, Last Updated: 02/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6198038
Community: PASEO TRAIL PARCELS A B AND C
Tract: PASEO TRAIL PARCELS A B AND C
Status: Active


Look no further. This one is it. Enjoy your privacy on this corner lot. This backyard paradise is one you will want to spend your days in the pool while grilling on your new built in BBQ. You guests have their own entrance through the courtyard. This home offers shutters, new AC unit, remodeled yard, updated powder room,spacious split floor plan with sitting area in master and en-suite in one of the secondary bedrooms. A city park is around the corner and this house is across from the Greenbelt! Come check it out before its gone...

Listed with ProSmart Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$430,000 :: 1540 W IVANHOE Court, Chandler AZ, 85224

4 beds, 2.75 baths
Home size: 2,168 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 02/25/21, Last Updated: 02/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6197798
Community: ANDERSEN SPRINGS PARCEL 8A
Tract: ANDERSEN SPRINGS PARCEL 8A
Status: Active


Pride of Ownership shines in this well maintained home! Inviting Entry into the Living room and formal dining. Newly painted, New carpet, New laminate wood flooring, newly updated master shower, 4 bedroom 2.75 bathroom with one of the bedrooms downstairs. Large open kitchen features a pantry, breakfast bar and open to family room for ease of entertaining. Huge Master Bedroom with separate tub & shower, Large walk-in closet. Two car garage. Backyard includes covered patio, Pool and a Fruit tree. Community offers a newly remodeled park, running paths, and lemon/orange trees! Great Access to Loop 101 & 202, shopping, grocery stores and hospitals. This home will not disappoint!

Listed with Keller Williams Integrity First


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$389,000 :: 832 W SARAGOSA Street, Chandler AZ, 85225

Property Photo

Mls Icon

4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,651 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 02/25/21, Last Updated: 02/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6196045
Community: FAIRVIEW MEADOWS
Tract: FAIRVIEW MEADOWS
Status: Active


Beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in the heart of Chandler! Great access to anywhere and everywhere you want to be! Great floor plan, meticulously maintained, and ready for YOU! Fairview Meadows is an awesome neighborhood, and this home has some great neighbors! Equipped with solar!Welcome home!

Listed with eXp Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$885,000 :: 855 W Highland st. --, Chandler AZ, 85225

4 beds, 3.5 baths
Home size: 4,082 sq ft
Lot Size: 21,345 sq ft
Added: 02/25/21, Last Updated: 02/25/21
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6197853
Community: Highland Heights
Tract: Highland Heights
Status: Active


Here is your opportunity to own a home in this hidden little gem of a neighborhood Custom built 4082 square ft. basement home on private 1/2 acre w/RV gate. Split floor plan w/4 BR/3.5 BA + home office. This home is an entertainers dream - even a 460+ bottle, climate controlled wine cellar in basement! Home theater & gas fireplace in LR. Spacious kitchen w/R/O system & Dacor appliances including 6 burner gas cooktop, built-in oven, microwave, warming drawer, and refrigerator & walk-in pantry & formal dining. Gas fire-pit, play pool w/rock waterfall & slide. Mature fruit trees, huge patio w/separate sun deck. Master bedroom w/jetted tub, two-way fireplace, his & hers sinks & separate toilet/bidet. Walk-in shower.

Listed with Delex Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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