Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012

 Reflecting on 2012 and what’s ahead for 2013

There is no doubt, 2012 has rewarded home owners, to which they say it is about  time!  Some reports are indicating a 15% – 25% increase in home values over  the last 12 months. The graph to the left shows the average $/sq.ft. for homes sold in Gilbert,  which has  rebounded to pre-2009 levels.  Can we expect this favorable trend to continue in 2013, or is this another bubble that will burst in 2013? They tell me I’m an analytic which probably explains why  I’ve included charts and graphs to explain my reasoning, so read on.

What’s happening with distressed properties?

To gain a better  understanding of the market, it is critical to understand the market for distressed properties. I like this graph to the right because it shows the pending foreclosures over time.  The  decrease which began in 2010 and accelerated in 2011, shows  why foreclosures have seen a significant reduction during 2012. It is very likely that it will fall below year-end 2007 levels by the end of this year.  Pending foreclosures are the fuel for the foreclosures/short sale pipeline so this trend shows that the real estate market is heading towards normalcy.

The specific impact of the reduction in distressed sales can be seen in the graph to the left which shows the percentage of distressed sales by city broken down by foreclosures and short sales.   To appreciate where we’re at, we must look back a year ago.  Nearly all cities have experienced a double digit reduction in  the percentage of distressed sales from a year ago.  Instead of torturing you with another graph, I’ll give you the  summary.

 

City               %Distressed Sept. 2011     %Distr.Sept. 2012             Change

Gilbert                             61%                               38%                         -23%

Chandler                         61%                               38%                         -23%

Mesa                                66%                               42%                         -24%

Queen Creek                  65%                                36%                         -29%

Scottsdale                      44%                                 27%                         -17%

Surprise                          73%                                 49%                        -24%

This is over a 12 month period which equates to a 2% decrease per month in many areas.   Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, will still be around for a while but the trend continues to be extremely encouraging.

What happens when home values rise?

As distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) are decreasing and home values are rising, this is welcome news to  underwater home owners .  Before, these home owners could not voluntarily sell their homes.  Rising home values provide the opportunity for more owners to participate in a traditional sale which allows more homes to come on the market.  Since the 3rd quarter of 2011, the increase in prices has been driven by the lack of supply of homes for sale. In order to view the balance between supply and demand we must refer to, you guessed it another graph! The months of inventory graph to the right shows that balance between supply and demand.  A rise in the available homes for sale with constant demand  increases the months of supply because it takes longer for that demand to consume the supply.  We are already seeing an increase in the months supply in many cities which means that as prices increase and more homes come on the market, it will take longer for homes to sell and the rate of increase in prices will slow down.  A six month supply of homes is consider normal so our market is still very healthy but an update trend indicates a cooling off.

One of the hottest market segments has been lower priced homes that can be purchased and rented out with immediate cash flow offering a significantly better rate of return than other investment alternatives.   As prices increase, the ROI comes down and a point will come where the reduced return does not justify the investment and investors will be leaving  the market.

As the Phoenix housing market returns to what may be close to a normal market, prices will continue to increase but will be moderated by an increase in the supply of  homes.  Phoenix was one of the first markets hit by the bubble so the fact that we’re one of the first ones out should not be a surprise.  Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be part of the equation but a smaller percentage.  Look for continued appreciation in 2013 but not the frenzied price recovery that we’ve seen in 2012.

Your thoughts?

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Related Posts:

Distressed Sales in 2012 compared to 2011

Where’s the  Phoenix market going in 2012?

Luxury Waterfront Property in Phoenix

$529,700 :: 3616 W MORELOS Street, Chandler AZ, 85226

Property Photo

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,795 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 03/25/23, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6536048
Community: HEARTHSTONE UNIT 5
Tract: HEARTHSTONE UNIT 5
Status: Active


Come take a peek at this gorgeous remodeled 3 bed 2 bath single family home in the heart of Chandler! This property is located close to the hustle and bustle of the Chandler Mall and many restaurants, but far enough away to be in the quiet suburbs. Enjoy the mature designer landscaping in the front and back yard, as well as the miraculous open floor plan with high end finishes in the interior! The backyard offers a beautiful covered patio to host guests during any season with a lush, turf grass area.Interior has been updated with laminate flooring, new dual pane windows, upgraded fixtures, and a beautiful white kitchen with quartz countertops. Come take a peek!

Listed with Infinity Wealth Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$569,900 :: 2319 E San Tan Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85296

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4 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 2,004 sq ft
Lot Size: 6,099 sq ft
Added: 03/27/23, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6536414
Community: Cottonwoods Crossing
Tract: Cottonwoods Crossing
Status: Active


Well appointed 4 bedroom home in desirable neighborhood. Enjoy the open floorplan, beautiful upgraded ceramic tile with warm neutral tones and separate living/family rooms. Bay window at eat in kitchen, granite countertops and backsplash with plenty of cabinets. Covered patio in back with built in BBQ. The Krakauer Grand Piano in Living Room conveys!Please excuse the boxes, seller in process of packing

Listed with Realty ONE Group


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$799,237 :: 4180 E COCONINO Place, Chandler AZ, 85249

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,505 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 06/06/22, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6412443
Community: CANOPY
Tract: CANOPY
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/10/2023 by 4%
Status: Active


Completed Single Story Home located in the master planned community of Canopy in Chandler features an executive kitchen with stainless steel appliances including a 36'' gas cooktop with designer hood and double wall ovens, Portofino Classico quartz kitchen countertops with waterfall edge at kitchen island, designer selected backsplash, Sonoma painted ''linen'' cabinets, 10'x8' center-pull slider at great room, extended primary suite, frameless walk-in shower at primary bath, stainless steel plumbing fixtures and faucets at all baths, Chateau Reserve 8x48 plank tile flooring and upgraded carpet throughout, pavers at driveway and front porch, gated community and so much more. *Please see on site sales associate for details on a special financing promotion*

Listed with Tri Pointe Homes Arizona Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$395,000 :: 6391 S PEBBLE BEACH Drive, Chandler AZ, 85249

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2 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,521 sq ft
Lot Size: 5,663 sq ft
Added: 02/24/23, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6524447
Community: SUNBIRD
Tract: SUNBIRD
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/27/2023 by 3%
Status: Active


HUGE PRICE REDUCTION - CUSTOM VENTURA on the GOLF COURSE with views of 2 fairways and the mountains. Vaulted ceilings, 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, hobby/craft room, bonus room, 2-car garage, tile roof and a large private patio area for outdoor entertaining. New AC unit. Great location in this wonderful, friendly adult community where you can enjoy all of the amenities including golf, tennis, swimming pools, pickle-ball, billiards, restaurant, lounge, state-of-the-art fitness center and so much more. Must see to appreciate why this home would be the best way to enjoy the SunBird Golf Resort lifestyle. Floor plan in the Documents tab

Listed with Cactus Mountain Properties, LLC


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$758,300 :: 783 E lynx Place, Chandler AZ, 85249

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5 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,985 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,584 sq ft
Added: 03/19/23, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6533474
Community: Kerby Estate
Tract: Kerby Estate
Status: Active


Location, school district, premier Cue-de-sac lot, big yard (both front and back yard plus big areas of pavers). Separate shed/warehouse. Excellent home structure, pool, fruit trees, veggie garden, etc. This beautiful home is rare to find. High ceilings in spacious living room, abundant natural lighting. Common area floor featuring natural travertine stone, bedrooms and upper stairs with natural wood floor. Granite counter tops. Surrounding sound system, nice lighting. Plenty of neighborhood playgrounds featuring basketball courts, beach volleyball, etc. Grassy neighborhood trails for walking. A variety of nearby restaurants, stores, and amenities. Lakes and golf course accessible at walking distance. Please make appointment for showing home.

Listed with Gold Trust Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$429,500 :: 2394 W Orchid Lane, Chandler AZ, 85224

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3 beds, 1.75 baths
Home size: 1,145 sq ft
Lot Size: 4,356 sq ft
Added: 03/16/23, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6532210
Community: DOBSON TERRACE
Tract: DOBSON TERRACE
Status: Active


Located in Dobson Terrace, This 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home has stunning solid hardwood floors in the main living area & newer carpet in bedrooms. New roof within the last 12 months. Community Pool! Original homeowner had pride in ownership. Walking distance to Whole Foods and a Starbucks. Less than 2 miles from Chandler Fashion Center. Easy walk to the community pool that has mature lush green landscaping. All appliances inside the home and garage cabinets convey with the property.

Listed with HomeSmart


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$535,000 :: 1081 E PARKVIEW Court, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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3 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 1,837 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,921 sq ft
Added: 01/15/23, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6505292
Community: VILLAGES AT THE SPECTRUM PARCEL 1
Tract: VILLAGES AT THE SPECTRUM PARCEL 1
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/27/2023 by 3%
Status: Active


Pride of ownership shows inside and outside this beautifully remodeled home. Great community in a highly desired location with walking paths, green belt, and the elementary school right down the road. Restaurants, shopping and Downtown Gilbert within minutes. This shows like a model home with a BACKYARD for great cookouts and family time.

Listed with Coldwell Banker Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$640,000 :: 949 E GAIL Drive, Gilbert AZ, 85296

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4 beds, 2.5 baths
Home size: 2,963 sq ft
Lot Size: 9,584 sq ft
Added: 11/10/22, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6488034
Community: LINDSAY RANCH UNIT 4
Tract: LINDSAY RANCH UNIT 4
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/17/2023 by 3%
Status: Active


Welcome to your dream home! This superb Gilbert home has it all: open concept living, vaulted ceilings, tile and carpet in all the right places, and bright and inviting spaces that will make you feel right at home. This property boasts a den/office, formal dining area, and eat-in kitchen. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, large island, RO System and pull out organization on the lower cabinets. Each of the bedrooms are generous in size. The primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and stunning en-suite bathroom. This well maintained home has dampers installed in the AC System to maximize efficiency, an expanded electrical system in the garage for all your projects, a sink in the laundry room and a smart timer on the irrigation system. Enjoy your time outside in the sparkling

Listed with My Home Group Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$429,000 :: 2580 E BOSTON Street, Gilbert AZ, 85295

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3 beds, 2 baths
Home size: 1,351 sq ft
Lot Size: 3,485 sq ft
Added: 03/27/23, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6533605
Community: The Cove at Vincenz
Tract: The Cove at Vincenz
Status: Active


Upon entry to this great room floor plan, the home grabs you with its cozy living room/dining room/kitchen combination. Tile floors contribute to the airy feel, and the eat-in kitchen is decked with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a reach-in pantry. Access to the private backyard covered patio is through sliding glass door in living room. The Primary Suite with on-suite bath is complete with private toilet room, walk in shower, and access to walk-in closet. 2 secondary bedrooms are separate from primary bedroom. This end unit has no front neighbor for an open feeling. Accessible via 202 for fast commute and minutes from San Tan Village shopping and dining.

Listed with West USA Realty


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


$669,000 :: 4068 E BRUCE Avenue, Gilbert AZ, 85234

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4 beds, 3 baths
Home size: 2,746 sq ft
Lot Size: 7,406 sq ft
Added: 12/06/22, Last Updated: 03/27/23
Property Type: Single Family
MLS Number: 6495817
Community: HIGHLAND GROVES AT MORRISON RANCH
Tract: HIGHLAND GROVES AT MORRISON RANCH
The price of this listing was last reduced on 3/27/2023 by 1%
Status: Active


Gorgeous home in the highly sought after Morrison Ranch in Gilbert, AZ! 4 beds with 3 baths and a loft that could be converted into another bedroom. Beautiful Acacia wood floors along with tile in all the traffic areas. Large living room along with formal dining area. Kitchen has granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and walk-in pantry. 3.5 car garage with plenty of space for all your toys. Bedroom and bathroom downstairs that is currently being used as an office, but could be a perfect guest quarters. Upstairs leads you to the 3 bedrooms with a ton of natural light throughout. Master has double doors, huge bathroom with dual sinks and vanity area. Separate shower and tub with a large walk-in closet. If you have not been to Morrison ranch, you need to come see this home today!

Listed with Limitless Real Estate


Brought to you by Gordon Baker, Remax Alliance Group. Call me today at 480-326-8571, or visit my website at www.myhomeinaz.com/!


 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Phoenix Real Estate Market Update for 2012”

  1. Gordon,

    Discovered your site while surfing national waterfront homes websites. Really like the structure and focus on themed searches!

    I’ll keep you in my CMS as a Phoenix Realtor referral.

    Thanks,
    Jonathan

    You can view my Charleston SC waterfront homes website at the link below:

    Search Charleston SC Waterfront Homes

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